{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["scenario-based modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'scenario-based modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=scenario-based+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"cdkn-000937","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cdkn-000937","title":"Benefits of low emission development strategies","publisher":{"name":"Climate and Development Knowledge Network","organization":"climate-and-development-knowledge-network"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":"2017-05","source_url":"https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/GIP01815_LEDS_RALI_Bangladesh_Case_Study_final_revised_2-6-2017_hi-res.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes two clean energy scenarios for Bangladesh: a short-term 'Clean Energy Policy 1' and a long-term 'Clean Energy Policy 2'. It finds that transitioning to clean energy can significantly reduce emissions, create thousands of jobs, and save lives by reducing air pollution, all while remaining cost-effective relative to conventional fossil fuel generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000937#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"By 2030, the implementation of a long-term clean energy strategy (Clean Energy Policy 2) could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (234.1 MMTCO2) compared to the business-as-usual Reference Case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000937#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The long-term clean energy scenario is projected to generate significant domestic employment, creating over 55,000 cumulative job-years between 2016 and 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000937#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adopting Clean Energy Policy 2 could prevent more than 27,000 premature deaths by 2030, resulting in economic savings exceeding US$ 5 billion (BDT 420 billion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000937#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy efficiency and solar power are identified as the most labor-intensive technologies in Bangladesh; energy efficiency can create more than six times the jobs of coal-based generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000937#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A short-term transition (Clean Energy Policy 1) focusing on replacing liquid fuels with LNG and using biomass co-firing could avoid over 5,000 premature deaths and save US$ 980 million (BDT 78.4 billion) cumulatively by 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000937#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Reference Case, which relies heavily on fossil fuels (46% coal and 34% natural gas), is estimated to cause nearly 123,000 premature deaths between 2016 and 2030 due to SO2 and NOx emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000937#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","renewable energy","energy efficiency","solar energy","biomass","liquefied natural gas","coal","air pollution","employment","public health","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["India","Nepal","Pakistan","Sri Lanka"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","scenario-based modeling","case study"]},{"id":"seforall-000372","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/seforall-000372","title":"Planification Enérgétique Intégrée ÉLECTRIFICATION MADAGASCAR","publisher":{"name":"Sustainable Energy for All","organization":"sustainable-energy-for-all"},"document_type":"report","language":"fr","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.seforall.org/system/files/2024-09/summary-madagascar-electrification-fr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for Madagascar to reach universal electricity access by 2030, estimating a total investment requirement of approximately 7 billion USD. The plan identifies four primary modalities: grid densification, grid extension, mini-grids (medium and low voltage), and standalone solar systems. Standalone solar is projected to be the most significant contributor in terms of total connections, while grid densification is highlighted as the most financially efficient method. The analysis emphasizes the need for coordinated planning between government bodies and the private sector, alongside infrastructure upgrades to ensure energy quality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"As of 2023, Madagascar's electricity access rate is estimated at 35%, with approximately 18.76 million people lacking access. This includes 2,400 health facilities and nearly 23,000 schools without reliable power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Achieving universal electricity access by 2030 requires adding approximately 9 million new connections, with an estimated cost of 7 billion USD, excluding new investments in generation and transmission.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Grid densification is identified as a highly cost-effective priority, with an estimated cost of 375 USD per connection. Approximately 1.6 million connections are needed via this method, requiring an annual connection rate of 220,000—more than ten times the average rate seen between 2018 and 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Grid extension projects are viable for areas within 15 km of existing medium voltage (MT) networks, provided the infrastructure cost remains below 1,250 USD per connection. Over 1 million new connections are projected via this mode at an average cost of 738 USD per connection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mini-grids represent a significant investment area, accounting for 45% of total CAPEX needs (over 3.1 billion USD). The plan identifies 371 potential medium voltage (MT) mini-grid projects serving 1.4 million connections and 2,582 low voltage (BT) mini-grid sites serving 468,159 clients.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Standalone solar systems (SSS) are the primary tool for universal access, accounting for 50% of all planned 2030 connections. A total of 4.45 million initial connections are needed, plus 2.6 million replacements due to a useful life of 3 to 5 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The financial plan for universal access estimates that 53% of funding will be required from the Government of Madagascar, 43% from private sector off-grid developers, and 4% from end-user connection fees.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000372#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Mini-grids","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Analamanga","Antananarivo","Maevatanana","Betsiboka"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["geospatial least-cost analysis","scenario-based modeling","financial gap analysis"]}]}