{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["scenario-based evaluation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'scenario-based evaluation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=scenario-based+evaluation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"catf-000148","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000148","title":"Strengthening Poland’s Nuclear Strategy through Financing, Small Modular Reactors, and International Collaboration","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-08-06","source_url":"https://www.catf.us/resource/strengthening-polands-nuclear-strategy-through-financing-small-modular-reactors-and-international-collaboration/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) recommends that Poland update its nuclear strategy to include a transparent financing model, a clear role for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and a detailed roadmap for its second nuclear power plant (EJ2). The report argues that nuclear power is essential for Poland's decarbonisation, noting that in some modelled scenarios, nuclear capacity could reach 21 GW by 2050. CATF specifically advises against the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel due to proliferation risks and suggests that Poland leverage SMRs to decarbonise industrial sites and district heating. Additionally, the report calls for stronger regional collaboration within Central and Eastern Europe to build a resilient nuclear supply chain and workforce.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000148#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Nuclear power is projected to play a significant role in Poland's power system transformation by 2050, with modelled capacity ranging from 8 GW in a base case (15% of annual generation) to 21 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000148#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Poland faces a lack of long-term revenue assurance mechanisms for nuclear energy, which increases investment risk and may lead to financial losses if reactors are curtailed during periods of high renewable energy output.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000148#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are identified as a key tool for decarbonising Polish industry and district heating, offering land-use efficiency with a typical 300 MWe site occupying less than 100 hectares.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000148#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The current draft of the Polish Nuclear Power Programme (PPEJ) lacks a specific development pathway for the second nuclear power plant (EJ2), which CATF argues increases uncertainty for stakeholders and investors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000148#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"CATF strongly recommends that Poland abandon plans to reprocess spent nuclear fuel to avoid the proliferation risks associated with a 'plutonium economy'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000148#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public support for nuclear energy in Poland is high, with November 2024 polls showing 93% of citizens favour building reactors and 80% accept installations near their homes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000148#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nuclear power","decarbonization","energy security","climate finance","district heating","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy recommendation","scenario-based evaluation"]},{"id":"catf-000626","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000626","title":"Decarbonising Poland’s Power System: A Scenario-Based Evaluation","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/25124306/CATF-Decarbonising-Polands-Power-Sector-Executive-Summary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study evaluates 19 scenarios for decarbonising Poland's power system by 2050, concluding that a technology-inclusive strategy is essential for reliability and cost-effectiveness. It identifies wind and solar as cornerstones but emphasizes the need for 'clean firm power' to replace coal, which currently provides 70% of dispatchable generation. The report warns that excluding options like nuclear power or carbon capture could triple the required energy infrastructure and significantly increase costs. Key recommendations include expanding onshore wind to approximately 70 GW, establishing a nuclear fleet exceeding 8 GW, and implementing natural gas plants with carbon capture.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000626#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Poland's transition to a decarbonised grid by 2050 requires a technology-inclusive strategy to manage risk and uncertainty, as limiting options—such as excluding carbon capture or new nuclear power—could triple the necessary energy infrastructure, including transmission networks, and significantly raise costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000626#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While wind and solar are expected to be the primary components of the grid, Poland needs substantial 'clean firm power' (non-weather-dependent, always-available zero-carbon power) to maintain reliability and control costs, especially as it moves away from coal, which currently accounts for 70% of its dispatchable and firm generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000626#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study recommends specific capacity targets and technological deployments, including increasing onshore wind power to approximately 70 GW (a sevenfold increase) and establishing a long-term nuclear fleet with a total capacity exceeding 8 GW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000626#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["decarbonization","electrical grid","nuclear power","carbon capture and storage","natural gas","Demand flexibility","energy infrastructure","electric power transmission","Coal phase-out","electric vehicle"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario-based evaluation","policy recommendation"]}]}