{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["scenario modelling"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":63,"relation":"eq"},"page":4,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=scenario+modelling&page=4","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-001982","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001982","title":"Transitioning to a climate-neutral electricity generation in Estonia","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/transitioning-to-a-climate-neutral-electricity-generation-in-estonia-frequently-asked-questions.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates seven electricity generation scenarios for Estonia, concluding that 'All technologies' and 'Renewable + Storage' pathways offer the best balance of feasibility and benefit. It identifies a gap of 2.7 GWh to 7 GWh in renewable electricity for 2030 objectives and recommends streamlining planning processes, deploying batteries, and developing offshore wind to meet climate goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current renewable auctions are insufficient to meet 2030 objectives, leaving a shortfall of between 2.7 GWh and 7 GWh of renewable electricity. To attract the necessary private investment, the document suggests risk reduction instruments such as public co-investing and extending state guarantees.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Investing in nuclear power is deemed a high-risk strategy due to historical cost overruns, long delays, and negative public perception. Even in optimistic scenarios, nuclear power would likely not be available until the mid to late 2030s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To make offshore wind parks feasible by 2030, Estonia must implement three priority actions: reviewing the planning process via a single application procedure, providing government-funded baseline studies (e.g., geological and wind resource assessments), and defining technology-specific price support mechanisms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"All examined pathways are projected to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, utilizing direct air capture for remaining emissions. By 2030, all pathways are expected to exceed the 40% renewable energy target, achieving over 70% RES and reducing emissions by 95%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'All technologies' and 'Renewable + Storage' pathways are identified as the most balanced options regarding costs, risks, and feasibility. While the 'Renewable + Storage' scenario performs well on CO2 emissions and security of supply, its primary drawback is high cost.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To reduce project timelines for renewables and storage, the document recommends updating the legal framework to create a single approval procedure, establishing maximum time-limits for planning stages, and providing more administrative and financial resources to local authorities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Retrofitting Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) at Auvere and TG11 is technically feasible for approximately €1 billion, but the investment would yield negative returns without external CO2 storage sites.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001982#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","offshore wind power","solar energy","nuclear power","carbon capture and utilization","direct air capture","energy storage","battery","biomass","natural gas","electric power transmission","Net-zero emissions","energy security","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Latvia","United Kingdom","France","Finland"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modelling","policy assessment"]},{"id":"sei-001996","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001996","title":"USING REAP FOR AN ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF THE LEEDS CITY REGION RSS HOUSING POLICY","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/using_reap_environmental_assessment_leeds.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report uses the Resources and Energy Analysis Programme (REAP) to model 15 housing policy scenarios for the Leeds City Region between 2003 and 2026. It finds that a 'business as usual' approach based on the draft Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) would lead to an 8% increase in CO2 emissions from housing by 2026. Retrofitting existing housing stock is identified as the most effective single measure for reducing emissions, with potential net savings between 19% and 39% compared to the baseline. The most significant reductions are achieved through combined scenarios involving energy efficiency improvements, renewable energy targets, and increased demolition rates, which can save up to 43 mt of CO2.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001996#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under a \"business as usual\" scenario aligned with the draft Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS), carbon dioxide emissions from housing in the Leeds City Region are projected to increase by 8% by 2026 compared to 2003 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001996#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Retrofitting existing housing stock is the most critical policy for reducing CO2 emissions on both a per-household and long-term overall basis, offering potential net carbon savings of 19% to 39% over the business as usual scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001996#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Combined policy scenarios—integrating regulatory efficiency improvements, increased renewables, faster adoption of \"Ecohomes excellent\" standards, and retrofit measures—can achieve \"Factor 2\" energy reductions and save up to 43 mt of CO2 compared to the baseline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001996#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The \"aspirational\" combined scenario (E1) is projected to result in total carbon dioxide emissions from housing in 2026 that are 50% lower than in 2003, with emissions per household decreasing by 56%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001996#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In 2003, housing accounted for 23% of the total carbon dioxide emissions and 19% of the total Ecological Footprint attributed to the Leeds City Region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001996#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report notes that while the draft RSS emphasizes climate change as a core strategic approach, the specific housing component of the RSS does not directly address climate change, global sustainability, or policies to reduce emissions and energy use.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001996#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","energy efficiency","Building retrofit","renewable energy","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Yorkshire and the Humber","United Kingdom"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modelling","environmental assessment"]},{"id":"wwfza-000204","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwfza-000204","title":"TOWARDS AN EQUITABLE TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON, CLIMATE-RESILIENT ECONOMY","publisher":{"name":"WWF South Africa","organization":"wwf-south-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/the-illustrative-people_s-energy-plan_digital-summary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Illustrative People’s Energy Plan (IPEP), coordinated by WWF South Africa and modelled by the University of Cape Town, proposes an 'Ideal Energy Scenario' for South Africa to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This scenario prioritises a rapid shift from fossil fuels to wind and solar PV, significant electrification of transport and industry, and expanded energy access for low-income households. The report argues that such a transition can nearly double employment by 2050 and maintain manageable costs through energy efficiency and localised clean energy manufacturing. It recommends that the government's official Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) be a transparent, living document that aligns fragmented policies and integrates social and environmental objectives as core planning outcomes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000204#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 'Ideal Energy Scenario' aims for an economy-wide net zero target by 2050, with a cumulative greenhouse gas emissions limit of 8 Gt CO₂e between 2021 and 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000204#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed transition involves a systemic overhaul of transport, targeting an 80% public transport share by 2050 and shifting freight from road to rail, which would result in fewer total vehicles on the road despite population growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000204#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To address energy poverty, the plan suggests increasing the free basic electricity (FBE) allowance from 50kWh to approximately 200kWh per household and deploying 6.5 million solar water heaters for low-income homes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000204#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The modelling indicates that economy-wide employment could nearly double between 2025 and 2050, and that localising clean electricity supply chains (up to 85% local content for solar PV and battery storage) would increase jobs in the energy sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000204#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues against large-scale reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), stating it is likely to remain costly and risks locking in emissions, though it remains a proxy for hard-to-abate sectors like cement and steel.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000204#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Ideal Energy Scenario's electricity system is dominated by wind and solar PV, with no new nuclear capacity; sensitivity analysis suggests nuclear would negatively impact economic growth due to high capital costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000204#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Net-zero emissions","energy transition","renewable energy","wind power","photovoltaics","green hydrogen","energy efficiency","public transport","electrification","carbon capture and storage","energy poverty","bioenergy","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modelling","policy analysis"]}]}