{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["scenario building"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'scenario building' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=scenario+building","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-002365","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002365","title":"Lessons from Oil and Gas Transitions in the North Sea","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-08","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/lessons-from-oil-and-gas-transitions-in-the-north-sea.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the transition of North Sea oil and gas producers toward net-zero or complete phase-out scenarios. It highlights that while the region shares geography, the three countries are at different stages of transition due to varying economic dependencies on fossil fuels. The authors argue that government must lead these transitions through state intervention, the deployment of clean technologies like offshore wind and CCS, and the creation of participatory governance structures to overcome industry resistance and ensure social equity for workers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The three North Sea countries are at distinct stages of transition: Denmark is a \"first mover in phasing out fossil fuels\", Norway is a \"major global exporter of natural gas\", and the UK is struggling to align \"pro-extraction regulatory incentives with its climate action commitments\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Government is identified as the actor with the primary responsibility for ensuring a just transition, particularly in phase-out scenarios, by providing incentives for clean industries and social measures like \"unemployment benefits, regeneration schemes and reskilling\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Technological deployment is central to all transition scenarios, with a heavy focus on \"offshore wind power; carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS); and hydrogen\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A recurring pattern of state intervention in Norway and the UK has been to \"prop-up\" production during crises through fiscal and regulatory adjustments, which the report argues \"locks-in emissions for decades to come\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Resistance to transition is often maintained through narratives and institutional arrangements; for example, the \"Norwegian ‘oil fairy tale’ (oljeeventyre)\" serves as a source of national pride that can hinder political action against the industry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies four enabling conditions for a just transition in the North Sea: the point on the production curve, alternative workforce opportunities, a \"weak oil and gas ‘culture’\", and a \"participatory governance tradition\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the UK, the \"North Sea Transition Deal\" is criticized for having \"limited participatory input\", as it was developed between government and industry while excluding the public and devolved governments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests that a \"net-zero\" goal with a distant horizon is less challenging to the status quo than a stringent phase-out, and is sometimes used by the industry as a \"social license to operate\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For a successful transition, the report recommends new governance models, such as a \"formalized multi-stakeholder dialogue process\" in Norway or an \"expert North Sea transition committee\" in Denmark.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002365#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["just transition","offshore wind power","carbon capture and storage","hydrogen","Net-zero emissions","fossil-fuel phase-out","climate finance","carbon price","energy security"],"geography_discussed":["World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy synthesis","stakeholder analysis","scenario building"]},{"id":"sei-002704","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002704","title":"Uncertain Futures: The Changing Global Context of the European Arctic","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2015-10","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NEW/sei-wp-2015-uncertain-futures-nilssonv2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report details a workshop in Pajala, Sweden, where local stakeholders and researchers co-created four future narratives for the region based on global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Participants identified climate change, national-local power relations, and international security as primary drivers of change. The resulting narratives explore a range of futures, from a sustainable 'Green Road' focused on circular economies and bio-production to a 'Rocky Road' characterized by resurgent nationalism and state withdrawal from municipal welfare. The study emphasizes the interconnection between local Arctic conditions—such as mining and reindeer herding—and global trends in migration, resource demand, and climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Workshop participants identified 'Climate change' as the most important driver of future change for the Pajala region, followed by 'Power relations national-local' and 'International security'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Sustainability: Taking the Green Road' narrative envisions a future where the Arctic warms by only 2ºC and Pajala's economy shifts toward circularity, with forestry serving as a primary industry for both bio-production and carbon sequestration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the 'Fossil-fuelled Development: The Highway' scenario, rapid Arctic resource extraction is driven by global demand, leading to increased mining jobs but also causing pollution and the decline of traditional reindeer herding as a livelihood.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Inequality – A Road Divided' narrative suggests that Pajala may become a destination for both climate/conflict refugees and a global wealthy elite, creating social tensions between low-income households and a non-settling rich elite.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Regional Rivalry: A Rocky Road' scenario describes a future of resurgent nationalism where the Swedish state withdraws from public sector areas, forcing municipalities to rely on local tax bases for welfare functions amidst a 'financial downward spiral'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Local stakeholders, specifically the Muonio Sami community, highlighted that mining activities like the Kaunisvaara mine threaten traditional reindeer herding by destroying grazing land and affecting groundwater levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report concludes that 'soft' capacities, including entrepreneurship and cultural values that favor diversity, are essential for achieving the more optimistic future scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002704#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","sustainable development","mining","circular economy","bioenergy","ecosystem service","climate change adaptation","extractive industry"],"geography_discussed":["Finland","Norway","Lapland","Russia","Barents Region"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario building","participatory research","qualitative analysis"]},{"id":"sei-002026","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002026","title":"Ecosystems, Development, and Climate Adaptation","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2010-12","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/wwf-sei-2010-belize-final-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the intersection of ecosystem management, poverty reduction, and climate adaptation in Belize, focusing on the vulnerability of its coastal zone. It identifies key drivers of change—population patterns, socio-economic development, and climate change—and uses scenario building to project outcomes by 2050. The study assesses Belize's current governance baseline across four clusters (institutions, policies, regulations, and capacity), finding that while sectoral policies are progressing, enforcement and integrated capacity remain weak. It proposes a transition toward stronger, more centralized governance and integrated cross-sectoral planning to enhance national resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Belize's coastal and marine ecosystems provide significant economic value, with shoreline mangroves and coral reefs contributing between US$395-559 million annually to the national economy through fisheries, tourism, and shoreline protection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Observed climate data from 1960 to 2006 shows an average temperature increase of 0.9 °C, with nights warming more than days (minimum temperature increase of 1.2°C versus maximum increase of 0.4°C).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sea-level rise in the region averaged 1.8mm/year between 1961 and 2003, accelerating to 3.1mm/year between 1993 and 2003.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study identifies three primary drivers of change affecting the coastal zone: population patterns (including migration and urbanization), socio-economic development (including poverty and consumption), and climate change (including extreme events and sea-level rise).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Scenario building for 2050 suggests that 'strong governance' can mitigate large changes in drivers through planned urbanization, diversified economies, and adaptive responses, whereas 'weak governance' combined with large drivers could lead to 'End of Days' characterized by coral collapse, political instability, and extensive infrastructure loss.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A comparative analysis of desirable future scenarios indicates that 'no regret' governance changes—those necessary regardless of the magnitude of climate impacts—include socio-institutional capacity building, public education, and integrated cross-sectoral planning.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Belize's current governance baseline is uneven: strategies and policies are the most advanced (estimated between levels 2 and 3 of integration), while regulations, laws, incentives, and general capacity/resources are the least advanced (estimated at level 1).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant barrier to accessing international climate adaptation funds is the absence of a dedicated national implementing agency in Belize.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While various entities have mandates for cross-sectoral coordination, they often operate in isolation and lack credibility or support from key sectoral government agencies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002026#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["ecosystem-based adaptation","coastal erosion","sea level rise","coral bleaching","climate finance","disaster risk reduction","Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation"],"geography_discussed":["Mexico","Honduras","Central America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario building","governance analysis","stakeholder consultation","baseline assessment"]},{"id":"iisd-003434","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003434","title":"Rapid Trade and Environment Assessment (RTEA) National Report for Lao PDR","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2007-09-24","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/rtea_national_lao.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Rapid Trade and Environment Assessment (RTEA) for Lao PDR examines the intersection of trade liberalization—driven by ASEAN, WTO accession, and GMS integration—and environmental sustainability. The report identifies that while resource-intensive sectors like hydropower, mining, and forestry drive GDP growth, they place significant pressure on forests, water, and biodiversity. Conversely, 'green' niche sectors such as organic agriculture, ecotourism, and silk handicrafts offer sustainable export potential. The assessment emphasizes that the net environmental outcome depends on the government's ability to implement and enforce regulatory frameworks, strengthen institutional capacity, and engage the private sector in corporate social responsibility (CSR).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Lao PDR's economic growth is heavily dependent on natural resources, with hydropower, mining, and wood products serving as primary exports, which increases the burden on the natural resource base.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The wood and wood products sector faces significant environmental threats, including deforestation, forest degradation, and biodiversity loss, exacerbated by illegal trade and low-value exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Silk handicrafts have a low environmental footprint currently but may face increased water consumption and chemical pollution from bleaching as production scales up.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Trade liberalization through the ASEAN Investment Area (AIA) may complicate environmental regulation by granting pre-establishment rights to ASEAN investors after 2015, potentially hindering the implementation of land concession moratoriums.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Existing bilateral investment treaties (BITs) from the 1990s may constrain environmental oversight because their vague definitions of expropriation could allow investors to challenge non-discriminatory environmental regulations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lao PDR's ability to benefit from trade agreements is limited by supply-side constraints and the need to meet strict non-tariff barriers, such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and certification requirements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Environmental governance and institutional capacity in Lao PDR are currently insufficient to keep pace with the rapid influx of foreign direct investment (FDI).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003434#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydropower","mining","forestry","ecotourism","organic agriculture","biofuel","climate change","environmental impact assessment","biodiversity conservation","green growth","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Greater Mekong Subregion","Vietnam","People's Republic of China","Myanmar","Cambodia","United States","Japan","Australia","New Zealand","Vientiane"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["sectoral analysis","policy assessment","scenario building"]}]}