{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["scenario analysis"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":584,"relation":"eq"},"page":10,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=scenario+analysis&page=10","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=scenario+analysis&page=11","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-000028","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000028","title":"The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-05-12","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates three development scenarios for Tunisia—'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'—against a baseline 'Current Path' for 2040. All three scenarios are projected to increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty, with 'Going for Growth' offering the highest GDP boost (30%) and 'Sustainability & Equality' providing the most significant reductions in extreme poverty, inequality, and carbon emissions. However, the report highlights critical trade-offs: 'Going for Growth' and 'Leapfrogging' are expected to increase carbon emissions and leave the country vulnerable to international food price shocks, while all scenarios must contend with increasing industrial, municipal, and agricultural water demand in a water-stressed environment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000028#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"All three development scenarios increase GDP by 2040 compared to the Current Path, with the 'Going for Growth' scenario providing the largest increase of 30% (€27 billion), followed by 'Sustainability & Equality' at 14% (€13 billion) and 'Leapfrogging' at 11% (€10 billion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000028#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario is the most effective at reducing extreme poverty (defined by a US$3.20 threshold), leaving only about 2.8% of the population in extreme poverty by 2040, compared to 6.6% under the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000028#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario is the only pathway that significantly reduces food imports and carbon emissions, with the latter decreasing by almost 8% relative to the Current Path by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000028#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Going for Growth' and 'Leapfrogging' scenarios are projected to increase carbon emissions by over 16% and 4% respectively by 2040 relative to the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000028#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regardless of the chosen scenario, Tunisia faces a policy challenge regarding increasing water demand for agricultural, municipal, and industrial use while already experiencing water stress.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000028#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","climate change","food security","economic growth","governance"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","economic forecasting"]},{"id":"sei-000150","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000150","title":"Genesee-Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-02-01","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report outlines the second phase of a project by the Climate Solutions Accelerator of the Genesee-Finger Lakes Region and the Stockholm Environment Institute to identify emission reduction pathways. It builds upon a baseline emissions assessment of the region's counties to evaluate long-term mitigation potential, aiming to produce a final Climate Action Strategy with specific targets and measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000150#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The project aims to identify climate actions in the New York region that reduce greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously enhancing equity, health, resiliency, and vibrancy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000150#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Genesee-Finger Lakes Region is already experiencing climate-related threats, specifically in the form of floods, heat waves, and fluctuating precipitation patterns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000150#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis utilizes a baseline emissions assessment that examines major emission sources across the region's counties and uses historical rates to project future emissions, which then informs the assessment of alternate mitigation pathways.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000150#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","climate change mitigation","climate resilience","energy access"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","emissions assessment"]},{"id":"sei-001383","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001383","title":"Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-01","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates three emissions scenarios for the Genesee-Finger Lakes Region: an existing policy scenario, a low ambition scenario, and a high ambition scenario. It finds that while the high ambition scenario can meet the 2030 intermediate target of the CLCPA, none of the current scenarios are sufficient to meet the 85% reduction goal by 2050. Key challenges include high emissions from enteric fermentation in dairy cows and methane leakage from large landfills. The analysis emphasizes the need for a carbon-free grid, electrification of transport and heating, and enhanced agricultural manure management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Existing plans and policies (Scenario 1) are insufficient to meet the 2030 and 2050 targets of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), potentially eliminating 212 MMtCO2e of emissions by 2050 compared to the baseline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'low ambition' scenario (Scenario 2) achieves a 63% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050, which still falls short of the CLCPA's 85% reduction goal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'high ambition' scenario (Scenario 3) results in a 67% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050, leaving a gap of approximately 18% to reach the CLCPA target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The high ambition scenario is the only one analyzed that achieves the intermediate 2030 emissions target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural emissions are projected to increase from 22% of the regional total in 2018 to 40% by 2050 under the existing policy scenario due to a lack of current agricultural policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the high ambition scenario, approximately 75% of remaining 2050 emissions stem from agricultural sources (primarily enteric fermentation in dairy cows) and solid waste (landfill methane leakage).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Stakeholder survey results indicate that residents prioritize affordable housing, clean water, and criminal and racial justice, with strong support for solar (83%) and wind (78%) farms, but opposition to nuclear expansion by nearly half of participants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies 42 technical mitigation measures across energy, residential, transport, commercial, industrial, agricultural, waste, and land sectors, though only 23 could be quantified due to data gaps.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001383#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","Building electrification","electric vehicle","public transport","afforestation","energy efficiency","climate justice","land-use planning","renewable energy","solar energy","wind energy","geothermal energy"],"geography_discussed":["New York","Rochester","Monroe County","Genesee County","Wayne County"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","emissions inventory","stakeholder engagement"]},{"id":"climstra-000359","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000359","title":"NEW REALITIES OF THE RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR: FOCUS ON KUZBASS","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/New-Realities-of-the-Russian-Coal-Sector-Focus-on-Kuzbass_v2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes how EU and G7 sanctions on Russian coal imports have disrupted the Kuzbass region, which produces over 55% of Russia's coal. It details the region's high economic dependency on coal, the logistical challenges of redirecting exports to Asia, and the risks of social unrest due to potential job losses. The document presents three future scenarios (Reference, Soft, and Hard) through 2030, projecting significant declines in production, revenue, and employment under the 'Hard' scenario, while noting that reduced coal activity may lower methane and CO2 emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Kuzbass (Kemerovo) region is exceptionally dependent on the coal sector, with coal mining accounting for 27.2% of its gross regional product (GRP) in 2020 and providing 8.6% of the labour force (99,300 employees) in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"EU sanctions on coal imports, which began on 10 August 2022, are the most impactful for the sector because the EU purchased 23% of Russia's coal exports in 2021, leading to expected annual revenue losses exceeding EUR 8 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Kuzbass is more vulnerable to sanctions than other Russian regions; its coal exports declined by 14% in 2022 compared to 2021, while total Russian coal exports declined by only 7.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Redirecting coal exports to Asia is hampered by limited railway capacity on the Baikal-Amur (BAM) and Trans-Siberian railways, as well as the removal of government railway transport subsidies and administrative privileges for coal companies as of 1 June 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Russian coal industry faces a critical dependency on imported technology; in 2018, the average share of imported equipment was 79%, with some items like bucket-wheel excavators being 100% dependent on imports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under a 'Hard' scenario through 2030, the report projects that coal production in Kuzbass will decline by 49% by 2026 (compared to 2022), revenues may drop by about 75% from 2026-2030, and employment could fall by 49% by 2026.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The decline of the coal sector in Kuzbass may lead to social unrest, mirroring the political turmoil of the 1990s, though the government may use military conscription to reduce the available workforce and mask unemployment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The degradation of the coal industry in Kuzbass could provide environmental benefits, including reduced CO2 emissions from combustion and lower methane emissions from mining.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000359#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Coal phase-out","greenhouse gas emissions","methane emissions","carbon neutrality","energy transition","renewable energy","Low carbon development","carbon price"],"geography_discussed":["European Union","People's Republic of China","India","Japan","South Korea","United Kingdom","Switzerland","United States","Turkey","Morocco","Brazil","Vietnam","Taiwan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","scenario analysis","policy analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001177","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001177","title":"EXPLORING THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS OF THE EUROASIA, EUROAFRICA AND TÜRKİYE-NORTH CYPRUS INTERCONNECTOR PROJECTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR CYPRUS","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2023","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4e9d9308-ed35-419e-9ca7-5bbf0fb53159/7OP 23 EXPLORING THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes three major electricity interconnector projects: the EuroAsia Interconnector (linking Israel, Cyprus, and Greece), the EuroAfrica Interconnector (linking Egypt to Europe via Cyprus), and the Türkiye-North Cyprus Interconnector. It highlights that while these projects aim to end the energy isolation of Cyprus and Israel and enhance regional energy security, they are complicated by geopolitical tensions and financing challenges. The author proposes four scenarios for implementation, ranging from maintaining political divides to a 'regional interdependency' model that uses energy infrastructure to build mutual trust. The paper argues that prioritizing interoperability and inclusive policies—specifically including the Turkish Cypriot community in decision-making—could transform Cyprus into a regional energy hub and support a peaceful settlement of the Cyprus Problem.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001177#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The EuroAsia Interconnector aims to connect Israel, Cyprus, and Greece via a 1,208 km subsea HVDC cable to end Cyprus's energy isolation and help the EU meet a 15% cross-border electricity interconnection target by 2030. It has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by 1.3 to 6.8 million tonnes annually, representing 21% to 110% of Cyprus's total emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001177#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EuroAfrica Interconnector is designed to link Egypt's electricity grids to Europe via Cyprus, utilizing Egypt's solar and wind potential. However, because Egypt aims to export power within five years, financial delays in the Cyprus-linked project could lead Egypt to prioritize alternative direct links to Greece, such as the 3-GW GREGY or 2-GW GAP projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001177#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Türkiye-North Cyprus Interconnector project, proposed in 2016, involves a cable between Akkuyu in Mersin and Teknecik in northern Cyprus. While the project remains on Türkiye's agenda and a recent MoU with AKSA Energy specifies that AKSA will handle financing, there have been ongoing concerns regarding the project's funding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001177#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author identifies significant technical risks for the EuroAsia and EuroAfrica projects, noting that their lowest points reach 3,000 meters deep and they are designed as the longest subsea cables in the world, making them susceptible to marine geohazards and subduction zone earthquakes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001177#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EuroAsia Interconnector presents legal and political risks regarding the Palestinian Authority, as it may enable electricity exchange with Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, potentially conflicting with 2013 EU guidelines on the eligibility of Israeli entities in occupied territories.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001177#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author argues for a 'regional interdependency' scenario where a Türkiye-Cyprus interconnector is built based on the whole island's demand, utilizing the existing north-south interconnector to connect the entire island to Türkiye and Europe, thereby fostering mutual trust and strategic cooperation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001177#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy security","carbon dioxide emissions","decarbonization","solar energy","wind power","natural gas","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["Israel","Greece","Egypt","Turkey","European Union","Occupied Palestinian Territory"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","policy assessment","geopolitical analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000151","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000151","title":"Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-11-07","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a mixed-methods approach to forecasting the impact of COVID-19 in Africa to 2030. It utilizes the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to compare three scenarios against a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, per capita income, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This quantitative analysis was supplemented by qualitative dialogues involving experts and practitioners focusing on 15 representative African countries. The methodology included validation through a project reference group, questionnaires, and presentations to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and public health experts to synthesize inter-disciplinary perspectives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000151#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The report employs the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to analyze three potential COVID-19 impact scenarios in Africa compared to a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, per capita income, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets up to 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000151#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A qualitative component of the research involved three dialogues with global and African experts, focusing on 15 countries selected for their developmental, regional, and cultural diversity: Algeria, Tunisia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), Angola, Malawi, South Africa, and Mauritius.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000151#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The methodology included a validation process involving approximately 100 dialogue participants, a project reference group of development agencies and experts, a questionnaire for detailed feedback, and presentations to public health experts and macro-economic experts at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000151#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Sustainable Development Goals","economic growth"],"geography_discussed":["Algeria","Tunisia","Mali","Sierra Leone","Nigeria","Cameroon","Chad","Sudan","Ethiopia","Kenya","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Angola","Malawi","South Africa","Mauritius"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","forecasting"]},{"id":"climcent-000059","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000059","title":"Global Climate Conference, Local Impacts","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2022-11-02","source_url":"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/global-cop27-local-impacts","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document highlights how global climate decisions at COP27 affect local areas through three primary tools: an analysis of U.S. warming scenarios, the Global Climate Shift Index (CSI-Global) tracking daily temperature influences in over 1,000 cities, and the Picturing Our Future tool visualizing sea level rise. It emphasizes the gap between current emissions trajectories and the 1.5°C to 2°C warming limits agreed upon in 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000059#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current global emissions trajectories indicate a significant gap between aspirational targets and actual commitments, with the UN Emissions Gap report projecting warming of 2.4-2.6°C by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000059#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Projected warming in the United States by 2100 varies significantly based on emissions scenarios: rapid cuts (SSP1-2.6) could result in warming between 1°C and 2.5°C (1.8 to 4.5°F) by 2050, while very high emissions (SSP3-7.0) could lead to warming between 3°C and 5°C (5.4 to 9°F) by 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000059#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis from the Global Climate Shift Index (CSI-Global) indicates that 96% of the world's population experienced daily temperatures influenced by climate change during the 12 months ending in September 2022, with the strongest effects felt by those on small islands and near the equator.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000059#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lagos, Nigeria is identified as a critical area of concern, serving as the world's largest hotspot for human exposure to climate-altered daily temperatures and facing extreme future risks from sea level rise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000059#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change mitigation","climate change adaptation","climate finance","sea level rise","climate change","urban heat island","disaster risk reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Egypt","Nigeria","Lagos","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["impact assessment","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"africac-000060","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/africac-000060","title":"NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA AMID A LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION","publisher":{"name":"African Climate Foundation","organization":"african-climate-foundation"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":"2022-11","source_url":"https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Natural-gas-in-Africa-amidst-a-global-low-carbon-energy-transition-A-case-study-of-Mozambique-and-Tanzania-Final-Web.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that LNG developments in Mozambique and Tanzania face significant transition risks, with asset values potentially dropping by 61% and 69% respectively in a 'Well Below Two Degrees Centigrade' (WB2C) scenario. In a 'Net Zero by 2050' (NZE) scenario, most projects would become uneconomic or 'value destructive' for investors. The authors argue that pursuing domestic gas-led industrialisation could further erode the viability of export projects and may require substantial government subsidies, potentially costing Tanzania approximately $5 billion over 30 years. Consequently, governments face material downside risks to public finances, as they intend to use gas revenues for public expenditure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000060#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"LNG developments in East Africa are highly exposed to transition risk. In a 'Well Below Two Degrees Centigrade' (WB2C) scenario, Mozambique's LNG resources would lose 61% ($66.4 billion) of their value, while Tanzania's would lose 69% ($20.1 billion) compared to a 'Business as Usual' (BAU) scenario. In a 'Net Zero by 2050' (NZE) scenario, most assets would be uneconomic, and investors would fail to meet targeted returns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000060#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Governments in Mozambique and Tanzania face substantial revenue losses under climate transition scenarios. In a WB2C scenario, the two governments would collectively earn $63 billion less than in a BAU scenario, with Mozambique losing $49 billion and Tanzania losing $14 billion on a net present value basis. This risk threatens the funding of planned public expenditure and development plans.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"africac-000060#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural gas","liquefied natural gas","stranded asset","climate finance","public finance","gas-fired power station","renewable energy","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["financial modelling","case study","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"costratri-000219","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/costratri-000219","title":"CLIMATE SECURITY IN MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT","publisher":{"name":"The Council on Strategic Risks","organization":"the-council-on-strategic-risks"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-11","source_url":"https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Climate-Security-MainlandSEA-Nov22.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines how climate change acts as a risk multiplier in Mainland Southeast Asia, specifically Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. It identifies state governance capacity and social and economic inequality as the primary drivers of regional insecurity. Through four scenarios—ranging from 'Paralyzed States, Vulnerable Populations' to 'Building Resilience, Strengthening Communities'—the analysis explores how these drivers influence outcomes like food insecurity, forced migration, and the proliferation of criminal networks. The document recommends that external stakeholders support policies to reduce inequality, engage regional security services for cooperation, and utilize ASEAN as a platform for climate risk mitigation to navigate the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Social and economic inequality within states can hinder climate resilience efforts, necessitating that external stakeholders integrate policies for economic security and inequality mitigation into their climate strategies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate risks in Mainland Southeast Asia are transnational, meaning regional resilience depends on diplomatic and security cooperation between local states and global partners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests using ASEAN and other regional forums to coordinate climate risk mitigation to bypass the difficulties caused by the antagonistic relationship between the United States and China.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional security services should be engaged to leverage their expertise and political influence to drive domestic policy reforms that support climate resilience, using technical data sharing as an entry point.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"External stakeholders are encouraged to push governments to partner with domestic civil society and NGOs, as there is a growing trend of crackdowns on these organizations across the region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Physical climate projections for the region include temperature increases of 1°C to 3.5°C by 2100, rising sea levels threatening cities like Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City with a 0.2-meter rise by 2025, and increased intensity of tropical cyclones and flash floods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human development factors, such as the damming of the Mekong River in China and Laos and rapid urbanization, compound the negative impacts of climate change, threatening ecosystems and increasing vulnerability to water-borne diseases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000219#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food security","sea level rise","extreme weather event","tropical cyclone","flash flood","water management","urbanization","climate change adaptation","nature-based solutions","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","Bangkok","Ho Chi Minh City","Mekong River","Tonlé Sap","Golden Triangle"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","risk assessment"]},{"id":"gem-000172","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000172","title":"NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA AMID A GLOBAL LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-11","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/ACF-GAS-REPORT-2.0-African-Landscape-Final-Web_3.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the impact of global decarbonisation on Africa's natural gas sector, distinguishing between existing and emerging producers. It argues that faster global transitions to net-zero emissions will reduce LNG demand and prices, creating 'external' climate transition risks that threaten the viability of future projects. The analysis suggests that domestic demand is an insufficient hedge against these risks due to regulated low prices and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy. Emerging producers are identified as particularly vulnerable due to weaker sovereign credit ratings and the timing of their infrastructure investments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000172#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"African natural gas producers face 'external' climate transition risks where faster global decarbonisation leads to lower demand and prices, reducing the value of existing industries and damaging the viability of future LNG projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000172#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Domestic or regional gas demand is unlikely to serve as a viable economic anchor for new investments because African domestic gas prices are typically regulated or capped and remain significantly lower than global LNG prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000172#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Investing in infrastructure to grow domestic gas markets may create 'domestic transition risk,' as low-carbon alternatives and rising long-run prices could make gas uncompetitive before the assets reach the end of their lives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000172#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Emerging producers (excluding South Africa and Namibia) are more vulnerable to transition risks than existing producers due to weaker sovereign credit ratings and the fact that new investments face higher downside risks and longer payback periods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000172#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The war in Ukraine has artificially inflated short-term LNG prices; if governments fast-track developments to capture these gains, they increase their exposure to severe long-term risks due to the gap between current valuations and those in a 1.5°C scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000172#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In a Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, global LNG demand could drop by 60% compared to current levels, potentially leading to stranded capacity and stranded value across African assets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000172#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural gas","liquefied natural gas","decarbonization","carbon neutrality","stranded asset","renewable energy","methane emissions","energy access","gas-fired power station","green hydrogen"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","Algeria","Egypt","Mozambique","Tanzania","South Africa","Namibia","Angola","Equatorial Guinea","Senegal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","scenario analysis","risk assessment"]},{"id":"seforall-000235","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/seforall-000235","title":"Projections of access to cooling in 2030","publisher":{"name":"Sustainable Energy for All","organization":"sustainable-energy-for-all"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-11","source_url":"https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/projections-of-access-to-cooling-in-2030","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report projects that under current trends, 1.22 billion people will be at high risk of lacking cooling access by 2030. While achieving universal electricity access (SDG 7.1.1) alone provides limited relief, combining it with the eradication of extreme poverty (SDG 1.1) could reduce the high-risk population by 36 percent to 783.3 million. The analysis highlights that urban poor populations are growing due to urbanization and the urban heat island effect, while rural poor populations in Africa remain particularly vulnerable. The report emphasizes that income and energy access are critical prerequisites for the adoption of sustainable cooling solutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under the current trends scenario, 1.22 billion people will be at high risk of lacking access to cooling solutions in 2030, an increase from 1.2 billion in 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The simultaneous achievement of SDG 7.1.1 (universal electricity access) and SDG 1.1 (extreme poverty eradication) would reduce the number of people at high risk by 36 percent, bringing the total down to 783.3 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Achieving universal electricity access (SDG 7.1.1) without poverty reduction results in only a 6.2 percent reduction in the number of people at high risk compared to current trends.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In high-impact countries, the urban poor population at risk is projected to grow to 871.9 million by 2030 under current trends, driven by the urban heat island effect (UHIE), loss of heat sinks, and informal housing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa accounts for 65.4 percent of the rural poor population at risk in high-impact countries under the current trends scenario for 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of people living in slums in high-impact countries is estimated to increase from 808.1 million in 2021 to 928 million in 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In 22 countries not considered high-impact, the population facing high risk is projected to increase by 40 percent compared to current levels under the current trends scenario, reaching over 43 million people by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000235#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["urban heat island","urbanization","Sustainable Development Goals","renewable energy","energy efficiency","climate change adaptation"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Asia","Middle East"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["projection","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000058","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000058","title":"The GDP Costs of Climate Change for Canada","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2022-10-28","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/the-gdp-costs-of-climate-change-for-canada/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Canadian Climate Institute's research indicates that climate change acts as a continuous drag on Canada's GDP, with cumulative losses estimated at $25 billion by 2025 and potentially up to $103 billion by 2055. The study highlights that low-income households are disproportionately affected and that proactive adaptation can save $13-$15 for every dollar spent, potentially cutting climate costs in half.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000058#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change creates a cumulative drag on the Canadian economy rather than just periodic shocks, with GDP estimated to be $25 billion lower by 2025 than if global warming had stabilized in 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000058#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic costs are projected to increase over time, with GDP losses reaching $35 billion by 2030 and between $80 billion and $103 billion by 2055.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000058#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["gross domestic product","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":["British Columbia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic modelling","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-000013","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000013","title":"New oil and gas fields \"incompatible\" with limiting warming to 1.5°C","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2022-10-25","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/articles/iisd-news/new-oil-and-gas-fields-incompatible-limiting-warming-15degc","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"An analysis of global modelled pathways concludes that new oil and gas fields and new fossil import infrastructure in Europe are incompatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000013#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Analysis of global modelled pathways from the IPCC, IEA, IRENA, and the private sector indicates that the development of any new oil and gas fields is incompatible with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000013#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under gas phase-out pathways aligned with a 1.5°C limit, there is no capacity for the creation of new fossil import infrastructure within Europe.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000013#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To limit warming to 1.5°C, the world must avoid new fossil fuel sources and instead prioritize the increase of solar and wind capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000013#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["wind power","solar energy","1.5 degree Celsius climate target"],"geography_discussed":["Europe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis"]},{"id":"newclim-000252","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000252","title":"Transforming the Ulaanbaatar heating sector: technology options for","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2022-10-11","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/transforming-the-ulaanbaatar-heating-sector-technology-options-for","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study assesses decarbonisation pathways for Ulaanbaatar's heating sector, finding that solar assisted ground source heat pumps (SAGSHP) are more cost-effective and less electricity-intensive than full electrification. While SAGSHP increases fixed costs by 30%, it reduces total costs by 9% due to lower electricity demand and reduced requirements for power capacity and grid expansion. The authors argue that reducing the burden on the power sector is essential to decouple heat and power supply and facilitate the penetration of renewables.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000252#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Ulaanbaatar heating and power sectors are tightly coupled through combined heat and power plants (CHPs), which are the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions. Expanding this existing CHP capacity to meet rising demand risks long-term coal dependency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000252#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Comparing a scenario using large-scale solar assisted ground source heat pumps (SAGSHP) to one of full electrification shows that SAGSHP reduces electricity demand by 28%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000252#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Although SAGSHP is more capital intensive, increasing fixed costs by 30%, it results in 9% lower total costs than full electrification. This is achieved through a 22% reduction in required installed power capacity, 23% lower grid expansion costs, and 28% lower variable costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000252#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Full electrification may not be the optimal decarbonisation route for Ulaanbaatar because the resulting surge in electricity demand would create high costs for transmission, distribution, and capacity expansions, while maintaining system inflexibilities that hinder renewable energy penetration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000252#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study identifies three necessary transformations for decarbonising the sector: improving building envelopes and district heating networks for energy efficiency, expanding renewable energy power capacity, and integrating novel renewable energy-based heating technologies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000252#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["decarbonization","district heating","greenhouse gas emissions","electrification","renewable energy","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","cost-benefit analysis"]},{"id":"ember-000223","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000223","title":"全球电力年中洞察 2022 年上半年","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"zh","date_published":"2022-10-05","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2022/10/Chinese-Report_Ember_-Global-Electricity-Mid-Year-Insights.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In the first half of 2022, global renewable energy growth met all new electricity demand, preventing a rise in fossil fuel generation. Wind and solar energy specifically met 77% of this new demand, avoiding $40 billion in fuel costs and 230 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. However, the report notes that severe droughts in China and global heatwaves in July and August 2022 led to a resurgence in coal and gas use, meaning total electricity sector emissions for the full year 2022 could still reach record highs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000223#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Renewable energy growth fully covered the 3% increase in global electricity demand during the first half of 2022, which effectively stalled the growth of fossil fuel generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000223#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Wind and solar energy were the primary drivers of this transition, meeting 77% of new global demand. Their growth avoided a 4% increase in fossil fuel generation, saving $40 billion in fuel costs and preventing 230 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in the first half of the year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000223#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the EU, a significant drop in hydropower and nuclear power (down 25% and 12% respectively) led to a temporary increase in coal generation to fill the supply gap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000223#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the first-half progress, global electricity sector emissions may still hit record highs in 2022 due to increased coal and gas generation in July and August, driven by droughts in China's Sichuan province and global heatwaves.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000223#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","wind power","solar energy","hydropower","coal power","carbon dioxide emissions","energy transition","energy security","electric energy consumption"],"geography_discussed":["United States","India","Sichuan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["comparative analysis","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"ember-000381","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000381","title":"Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-10-05","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2022/10/Report-Ember-Global-Electricity-Mid-Year-Insights-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"In the first half of 2022, global electricity demand rose by 3%, and this growth was entirely met by renewables, which prevented a 4% increase in fossil fuel generation. While wind and solar met 77% of this demand growth, hydro met the remainder. However, the report notes that subsequent rises in coal and gas generation in July and August, driven by droughts in China and global heatwaves, mean that total power sector CO2 emissions for 2022 may still reach a record high.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000381#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Renewable energy generation growth (wind, solar, and hydro) exceeded the growth in global electricity demand, with total renewables providing 28% of global electricity in H1-2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000381#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Wind and solar power specifically met 77% of the global electricity demand growth in the first half of 2022, contributing to a total of 13% of global electricity (8% wind and 5% solar).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000381#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The growth of wind and solar in H1-2022 prevented a 4% increase in fossil fuel generation, avoiding $40 billion USD in fuel costs and 230 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000381#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the stability of fossil generation in the first half of the year, a rise in coal and gas generation during July and August—caused by heatwaves and droughts in China's Sichuan province—means 2022 power sector CO2 emissions may still set a record high.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000381#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In China, wind and solar met 92% of the electricity demand rise in H1-2022, while in the US they met 81% and in India 23%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000381#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The European Union experienced a significant decline in hydro (-25%) and nuclear (-12%) generation in H1-2022, which led to a temporary increase in coal generation to cover the shortfall.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000381#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["wind power","solar energy","hydropower","coal","natural gas","electric energy consumption","energy transition","energy security","nuclear power"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","European Union","United States","Sichuan","France","Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","comparative analysis","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"sei-002151","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002151","title":"The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-10","source_url":"https://leap.sei.org/documents/AEO7.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7) analyzes energy demand, supply, and electricity generation across the ASEAN region through four scenarios: Baseline, AMS Targets (ATS), APAEC Targets (APS), and Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO). It finds that without policy intervention, energy demand will triple by 2050 and fossil fuels will continue to dominate. However, implementing national and regional policies can significantly reduce total final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The report emphasizes the need for increased energy efficiency, higher renewable energy penetration, and regional grid interconnection to ensure energy security and sustainability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under the Baseline Scenario, regional energy demand is projected to triple by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) reaching 1,281.7 Mtoe.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant energy source in the Baseline Scenario, with oil accounting for 47.4% of TFEC, electricity for 20.3%, coal for 14.5%, and bioenergy for 9.2% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The region is projected to become a net importer of natural gas by 2025 and coal by 2039 if no significant new discoveries or infrastructure additions occur.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing regional policies in the APAEC Target Scenario (APS) could reduce TFEC by 53.7% by 2050 compared to the Baseline Scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"ASEAN is projected to miss its regional target of 23% renewable energy (RE) in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) by 2025, with the AMS Target Scenario (ATS) predicting only 17.5%, leaving a 5.5% gap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario suggests a power system that costs USD 174.7 billion less than the APS over the 2021-2050 period, though it results in a 5.3% lower share of RE in TPES by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy intensity reduction is projected to reach 29.2% by 2025 under ATS, which falls short of the 32% regional target set by APAEC.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The APS scenario is projected to create up to 5.5 million new jobs by 2050, with 67% of these in hydropower and 10% in geothermal construction, operation, and maintenance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biofuel production in the APS scenario would require approximately 5.6 million hectares of land for oil palm and 3.2 million hectares for sugar cane.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LCO Scenario identifies several cost-effective interconnection projects to be operational by 2025, including lines between Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra, Sarawak and Brunei Darussalam, Lao PDR and Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar, and Thailand and Cambodia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Universal electrification in ASEAN is projected to be achieved by 2040 under the ATS and APS scenarios, with Cambodia being the final country to reach this target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Clean cooking access is projected to reach only 90.28% by 2050 under the APS scenario, failing to meet the SDG7 target of 100% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The social cost of energy in 2050 is projected to be USD 5,457 billion in the Baseline Scenario, but could be reduced to USD 2,358 billion under the APS scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-13","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LCO Scenario introduces nuclear energy into the region's power mix, with 5.2 GW deployed by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-14","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy efficiency","renewable energy","greenhouse gas emissions","energy security","energy transition","electric vehicle","biofuel","hydropower","geothermal energy","solar energy","wind power","nuclear power","carbon capture and storage","clean cooking","electrification","climate finance","energy storage"],"geography_discussed":["Brunei","Cambodia","Indonesia","Laos","Malaysia","Myanmar","Philippines","Singapore","Thailand","Vietnam"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","bottom-up modeling","least-cost optimisation","decomposition analysis"]},{"id":"climstra-000020","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000020","title":"Why wait until 2050?","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-09-27","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/publication/why-wait-until-2050/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the potential for accelerating the phase-out of oil and gas production in the Danish North Sea, specifically questioning the economic impacts and the point at which these activities become unprofitable for the state.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000020#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Danish North Sea Agreement currently establishes 2050 as the final end date for all oil and gas-related activities within the Danish sector of the North Sea.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000020#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report seeks to determine the economic consequences of the phase-out and identify when offshore oil and gas activities will likely become unprofitable, which could justify an earlier deadline than 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000020#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel industry","energy transition","carbon neutrality"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic analysis","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"climstra-000022","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000022","title":"UK scenarios for the phase-out of oil and gas","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-09-27","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/publication/living-in-the-present-making-the-future/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines the need for co-created transition pathways for the UK's oil and gas sector to align with net-zero emissions goals, presenting results from a May 2022 workshop that examined a \"median anticipated pathway\" and a \"rapid exit\" scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000022#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The International Energy Agency's May 2021 roadmap for global net-zero emissions by 2050 indicates that investment in new oil and gas fields is incompatible with decarbonisation levels required by the Paris Agreement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000022#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite early ambitions, the United Kingdom has seen slow practical action and heated debate regarding the phase-out of oil and gas, necessitating the exploration of transition scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000022#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A May 2022 scenario workshop evaluated two specific pathways for the UK's oil and gas phase-out: a \"rapid exit\" and a \"median anticipated pathway\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000022#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petroleum industry","Net-zero emissions","just transition","decarbonization"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-000175","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000175","title":"Why Canada Needs to Plan for a Steep Decline in Global Oil Demand","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2022-09-16","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/canada-can-expect-declining-oil-demand","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes global oil demand scenarios from the IEA and CER, concluding that climate policies and technological shifts—particularly in road transport—will lead to a permanent decline in oil demand starting before 2030. It highlights that road transport, the largest consumer of oil at 44%, is seeing an exponential shift toward electric vehicles. Other sectors, including buildings, power, aviation, shipping, and plastics, are also expected to contribute to demand destruction, though at different paces. The brief asserts that Canada must prepare for this structural decline to ensure economic resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000175#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global oil demand is projected to peak by 2030 or earlier, with the IEA's Net-Zero (NZE) scenario showing demand falling to 70 mbpd by 2030 and decreasing by 2.4 mbpd (or 5.3%) annually until 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000175#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Road transport is the primary driver of oil demand at 44% of the total, and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to cause a significant displacement of oil demand before 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000175#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Even under the Canada Energy Regulator's (CER) relatively unambitious 'Evolving Policies Scenario', Canadian crude oil production is projected to peak in 2032 and then decline at an average annual rate of 1.1% to reach 2018 levels by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000175#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The sectors of buildings and power, which together account for 13% of global oil demand, are expected to see demand drops by 2030, with a reduction of 5.8 mbpd in the IEA's Net-Zero scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000175#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While petrochemicals (19% of demand) and aviation/shipping (12% of demand) are less likely to see drastic reductions by 2030, they are expected to contribute significantly to falling demand in the medium term post-2030 due to plastic pollution regulations and net-zero aviation pledges.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000175#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Combining a Net-Zero trajectory for road transport with a more conservative 'Announced Policies' trajectory for other sectors would result in a 22% drop in oil demand from 2019 levels by 2030, and a 58% reduction by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000175#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel demand","energy transition","electric vehicle","Net-zero emissions","petrochemical product","Sustainable Aviation Fuel","greenhouse gas emissions","plastic pollution","climate policy"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","Sweden","Denmark","Norway","United States","European Union","United Kingdom"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","policy brief"]}]}