{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["robustness testing"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'robustness testing' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=robustness+testing","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"zca-000114","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/zca-000114","title":"Technical appendix for Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers","publisher":{"name":"Zero Carbon Analytics","organization":"zero-carbon-analytics"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03","source_url":"https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Technical-Appendix-Climate-extremes-in-the-UK-are-driving-up-lamb-prices-for-consumers-2026-03.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document details a rolling-window ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model used to analyze the impact of climate extremes on UK lamb prices. It finds that both short-term drought (6-month window) and prolonged wet conditions (12-month window) drive prices up, while a 'pork falsification test' confirms this mechanism is specific to grass-fed lamb. Robustness checks, including CPI deflation and out-of-sample prediction, support the validity of the climate transmission signal. The analysis specifically isolates a 'drought premium' of 92p/kg farmgate for the 2025 drought and notes that the hay market's sensitivity to rainfall anomalies has strengthened over time.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The core model identifies two distinct rainfall-driven price pressures: drier conditions over a 6-month horizon push prices up (coefficient -0.00644, NW P = 0.006), while prolonged wet conditions over a 12-month horizon also increase prices (coefficient +0.00852, NW P = 0.010).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'pork falsification test' used as a negative control demonstrated that rainfall has no statistically significant predictive power for pork prices, confirming that the observed price increases in lamb are linked to the grass-fed supply chain rather than general economic trends.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The UK lamb market is largely self-contained, as the addition of the FAO global ovine meat price index to the model resulted in the index being non-significant (P = 0.50) and had negligible impact on rainfall coefficients.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of the 2025 drought, using a counterfactual to isolate its effect from the preceding wet winter, found a mean drought premium of 92p/kg farmgate from March to October 2025, which equates to GBP 2.47 per household over that period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While there is no evidence that grass growth sensitivity to rainfall is worsening over time (P = 0.63), the hay market shows a significant rainfall x year interaction (P = 0.007), indicating that hay price responses to rainfall anomalies have strengthened.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000114#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["drought","extreme weather event","food price"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["econometric modeling","robustness testing","counterfactual analysis"]}]}