{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["risk modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'risk modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=risk+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"ucs-000812","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-000812","title":"Lights Out?","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2015-10","source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/10/lights-out-central-gulf-coast.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Union of Concerned Scientists finds that significant portions of the U.S. East and Gulf Coast electricity grids are currently exposed to coastal flooding, a risk that will increase as sea levels rise. In the central Gulf Coast specifically, 188 major substations and 20 power plants are currently at risk from a major storm. The report argues that relying on historical flood data is insufficient and recommends a combination of infrastructure adaptation (protection, accommodation, and retreat) and the deployment of decentralized clean energy solutions—such as microgrids and solar with storage—to ensure community resilience and reduce the carbon emissions driving sea level rise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000812#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A significant amount of critical electricity infrastructure along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts is already exposed to flooding from severe storms, and this exposure will increase as sea levels rise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000812#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the central Gulf Coast region, nearly 70 percent of major substations (188) and 20 power plants, representing over 9,300 megawatts of capacity, are currently exposed to flooding from a major storm.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000812#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Future sea level rise will increase both the extent and depth of flooding; for example, in southeastern Florida, the number of major substations exposed to a Category 3 storm could triple by 2070.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000812#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The central Gulf Coast is projected to experience a local sea level rise of approximately 1.9 feet by 2050, which may reduce the effectiveness of existing defenses like levees and storm surge barriers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000812#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current infrastructure planning often relies on static FEMA assessments and historical data that underestimate future flood risks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000812#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Decentralized clean energy solutions, including microgrids, combined heat and power (CHP) plants, and solar power coupled with battery storage, provide a more resilient alternative to the centralized grid and unreliable diesel backup generators.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000812#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sea level rise","storm surge","climate change adaptation","renewable energy","energy storage","microgrid","decarbonization","Resilience (power system)"],"geography_discussed":["World","Philadelphia metropolitan area","Virginia","South Carolina","Florida","New Jersey","Massachusetts"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["vulnerability assessment","risk modeling","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"ucs-000813","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-000813","title":"Storm Surge and Blackouts in the Delaware Valley, and How Clean Energy Can Help","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2015-10","source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/10/lights-out-delaware-valley.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that significant portions of the U.S. East and Gulf Coast electricity grids are exposed to coastal flooding, with the Delaware Valley specifically facing risks to 79 substations and 35 power plants under current Category 3 hurricane conditions. It warns that reliance on historical flood data underestimates future risks as sea levels rise, potentially leading to widespread, long-lasting power outages. To address this, the authors recommend a combination of infrastructure adaptation (protection, accommodation, and retreat) and the deployment of decentralized clean energy technologies—such as solar with storage, combined heat and power (CHP) plants, and microgrids—to ensure critical facilities remain powered during grid failures while reducing the carbon emissions that drive sea level rise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A significant portion of electricity infrastructure serving over 70 million coastal residents on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts is already exposed to flooding from severe storms, and this exposure will increase as sea levels rise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Delaware Valley, a Category 3 hurricane today could expose 79 major substations (30% of the total) and 35 power plants with over 8,800 MW of capacity to flooding; by 2050, the number of exposed substations is projected to rise to 84.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of five metropolitan regions shows that the share of substations exposed to storm surge today ranges from 16% in southeastern Florida to nearly 70% in the central Gulf Coast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current flood protection for electricity infrastructure often relies on static historical data or FEMA assessments, which fail to account for future sea level rise and the lifetime of the equipment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies three primary adaptation strategies for at-risk infrastructure: protection (building defenses like seawalls), accommodation (elevating equipment or using submersible gear), and retreat (relocating or retiring infrastructure).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Decentralized clean energy solutions—specifically renewable energy with storage, combined heat and power (CHP) plants, and microgrids—can provide resilient power to critical facilities when the centralized grid fails.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The cost of wind and solar power has decreased by 60 to 70 percent over the five years preceding the report, making resilient energy systems more cost-effective for communities and vulnerable populations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000813#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sea level rise","storm surge","renewable energy","energy storage","microgrid","climate change adaptation","carbon dioxide emissions","distributed generation","Resilience (power system)"],"geography_discussed":["World","Southeastern Florida","Southeastern Virginia","South Carolina Lowcountry","Central Gulf Coast","New Jersey","Pennsylvania","Delaware","Massachusetts"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["vulnerability assessment","risk modeling","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"wri-001369","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-001369","title":"REEFS AT RISK","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"http://pdf.wri.org/reefs.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report 'Reefs at Risk' assesses the global status of coral reefs, finding that 58% are potentially threatened by human activities. It identifies overexploitation and coastal development as the primary drivers of risk, with Southeast Asia being the most threatened region. The study utilizes a map-based indicator to flag high-risk areas, particularly biodiversity hot spots, and evaluates the current state of marine protected areas (MPAs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Approximately 58% of the world's coral reefs are potentially threatened by human activity, with 27% classified as high risk and 31% as medium risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Overexploitation of marine resources and coastal development are the most significant threats, each affecting roughly one-third of all reefs globally.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Southeast Asia is the most threatened region globally, with over 80% of its reefs at risk and more than half (56%) facing high potential threat.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Pacific region contains the largest area of coral reefs and is the least threatened, with approximately 60% of its reefs classified as low risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"At least 11% of global coral reefs are 'biodiversity hot spots,' defined as areas with high reef fish species richness that are also under high threat; these are concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Caribbean.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Marine protected areas (MPAs) are insufficient in scale and coverage; at least 40 countries have no formal protection for their reefs, and most existing MPAs are smaller than one square kilometer.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Destructive fishing practices, specifically the use of cyanide to capture live fish for the aquarium and restaurant trades, are widespread across the Indo-Pacific region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001369#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coral reef restoration","biodiversity","coastal management","coral bleaching","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Southeast Asia","Pacific Ocean","Caribbean","Indian Ocean","Middle East","Philippines","Indonesia","Australia","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["global assessment","risk modeling","spatial analysis"]}]}