{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["revenue modelling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'revenue modelling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=revenue+modelling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"cmw-000505","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cmw-000505","title":"International aviation: Will the EU restart the clock?","publisher":{"name":"Carbon Market Watch","organization":"carbon-market-watch"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-07","source_url":"https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Carbone-4-EU-ETS-aviation-extension-.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines four scenarios for extending the EU ETS aviation scope beyond intra-EEA flights, potentially increasing revenues up to 1,160 billion € by 2040. It argues that including non-CO2 effects and private jets would significantly boost funding for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), rail infrastructure (TEN-T), and international climate finance (NCQG).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The EU ETS for aviation is currently limited to intra-EEA flights due to a \"stop-the-clock\" measure, while international flights are covered by CORSIA, which is criticized for only covering traffic growth compared to 85% of 2019 activity and relying on offsets rather than emission reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Depending on the geographical extension chosen in 2026, the EU could increase aviation EU ETS revenues almost four-fold. The most expansive scenario (Scenario 1), covering all flights to or from the EEA, could generate significantly higher revenues than the current intra-EEA scope (Scenario 4).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Including non-CO2 effects, primarily condensation trails, could increase revenues by approximately 2.5 times. The report notes that non-CO2 impacts can be at least as significant as direct CO2 emissions and potentially up to three times larger.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Expanding the EU ETS to cover all private jets could add between 5 and 59 billion € in revenues from 2025 to 2040. Currently, 67% of private flights are excluded from the EU ETS under the current intra-EEA scope.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Total potential revenues from a full-scope extension (including non-CO2 effects and private jets) could reach 1,160 billion € over 15 years, providing a strong incentive for aviation decarbonisation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current EU ETS revenue allocation to aviation decarbonisation is limited; for example, only two projects in the Innovation Fund portfolio by the end of 2023 were dedicated to producing sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), with a total investment of 247 million €.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant gap between potential EU ETS revenues and the investment needs for key priority sectors: SAF requires 4 to 12 billion € annually, rail infrastructure (TEN-T) needs 30 to 47 billion € annually, and the EU's contribution to the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) could require over 79 billion € by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cmw-000505#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1","aviation","contrail","Sustainable Aviation Fuel","climate finance","carbon price","carbon offset"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["revenue modelling","policy assessment","investment gap analysis"]}]}