{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["quantitative scenarios"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'quantitative scenarios' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=quantitative+scenarios","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"climstra-000150","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000150","title":"Coal transitions in Australia","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Australia_2018.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the inevitable decline of Australia's coal sector, driven by the cost-competitiveness of renewables and falling global demand for thermal coal. It presents two domestic transition scenarios: a 'moderate' one compatible with Australia's NDC and a 'faster' one aligned with a 2-degree global goal. The document highlights the risks of sudden plant closures, using the Hazelwood power station as a case study to argue for more predictable, planned transitions and a 'just transition' framework to support affected regional communities and workers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Australia is a major global coal supplier, providing approximately 19.3% of the world's thermal coal trade and 60% of the world's metallurgical coal trade as of 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The domestic coal-fired power fleet is aging, with 68% of the 23.1 GW nominal capacity in the National Electricity Market (NEM) being older than 30 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"New coal-fired power stations are no longer commercially viable in Australia because the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for wind and solar PV is significantly lower.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the 'moderate' transition scenario, coal use would drop to less than half of current levels by 2030 and decline by over 90% by 2040, aligning with Australia's NDC under the Paris Agreement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'faster' transition scenario projects coal use to be reduced by approximately 30% by 2025 and by two-thirds by 2030, supporting a global 'two degrees or less' goal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The closure of the Hazelwood power station in March 2017, Australia's largest plant, was sudden and based on commercial grounds, specifically the $400 million cost required for boiler repairs to meet safety standards.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Econometric analysis of coal plant closures between 2010 and 2017 indicates that affected regions experienced an average increase in unemployment of approximately 0.7 percentage points, primarily among men.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that Australian governments should stop providing subsidies or preferential treatment for coal mines and transport infrastructure to avoid creating stranded assets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To ensure an orderly transition, the report recommends establishing stable policy frameworks, including a predictable carbon price signal and mechanisms for the planned closure of power stations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000150#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Coal phase-out","renewable energy","carbon price","Nationally Determined Contributions","just transition","stranded asset","energy transition","greenhouse gas emissions","photovoltaics","wind power","energy storage"],"geography_discussed":["Latrobe Valley","Victoria","New South Wales","Queensland","Galilee Basin"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative scenarios","case study","econometric analysis","policy assessment"]}]}