{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["quantitative risk assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'quantitative risk assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=quantitative+risk+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"fsdafri-000200","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/fsdafri-000200","title":"Nature and financial institutions in Africa: A first assessment of opportunities and risks","publisher":{"name":"FSD Africa","organization":"fsd-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-06","source_url":"https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Nature-and-financial-institutions-in-africa-a-first-assessment-of-opportunities-and-risks_compressed.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report demonstrates that nature-related risks are material for African financial institutions, particularly in the agriculture and extractives sectors. Using the TNFD's LEAP approach, it finds that ambitious nature-positive transitions could lead to equity value changes between +2% and -5% and loan book changes between +0.3% and -0.6% by 2030. While aggregate portfolio impacts appear small due to limited sector exposure, specific risks in agriculture and extractives could double expected credit losses for some portfolios. The report highlights critical physical risks, such as water stress affecting 25% of African countries and habitat loss threatening ecotourism in Eastern and Southern Africa. It concludes that African financial institutions face significant capacity and data gaps in implementing nature-related disclosures and recommends an integrated approach that combines climate and nature risk management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000200#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Nature-related risks and opportunities are material for African financial institutions, with ambitious actions to halt nature degradation potentially shifting equity portfolio values by +2 to -5 percent and loan books by +0.3 to -0.6 percent by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000200#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nature-related risks in agriculture and deforestation-linked extractives are comparable in scale to climate-related risks in manufacturing, chemicals, and extractives; by 2050, profits in agriculture and deforestation-linked extractives could fall by 20 percent and 15 percent respectively under the most ambitious scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000200#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water stress is a critical physical risk, with 25 percent of African countries already water stressed. In countries like Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa, unit production costs for staple crops could increase by 20 to 40 percent by 2050 relative to a baseline scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000200#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ecotourism in Eastern and Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to habitat loss and deforestation, as there is a strong positive correlation between the number of visitors to national parks and the richness of flagship species.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000200#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Deforestation associated with gold and copper production represents a significant market access risk; by 2050, unit production costs for these minerals could increase by 20 percent for gold and 33 percent for copper.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000200#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"African financial institutions face significant barriers to implementing the TNFD framework, including limited capacity (80% are still building climate risk capabilities), a lack of standardized counterparty data on asset locations, and difficulty recruiting staff with spatial data and scientific expertise.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000200#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural capital","biodiversity loss","ecosystem service","deforestation","nature-based solutions","ecotourism","sustainable agriculture","extractive industry"],"geography_discussed":["Democratic Republic of the Congo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative risk assessment","stress-testing","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"ucs-000783","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-000783","title":"THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A TERRORIST ATTACK AT THE INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR PLANT","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2004-09","source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/indianpointhealthstudy.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the potential consequences of a terrorist attack at the Indian Point nuclear power plant, arguing that current 10-mile emergency planning zones are inadequate. Using the MACCS2 computer code, the author estimates that a successful attack could result in up to 44,000 near-term deaths and 518,000 long-term cancer deaths within 50 miles, with economic damages reaching $2.1 trillion. The analysis highlights that residents of New York City are at significant risk, particularly children who may require potassium iodide (KI) to prevent thyroid cancer, and suggests that sheltering may be more effective than evacuation for those outside the immediate 10-mile zone.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A terrorist attack at Indian Point resulting in a core meltdown could cause up to 44,000 near-term deaths from acute radiation syndrome and over 500,000 long-term cancer deaths among individuals within 50 miles of the plant, depending on weather conditions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For 95th percentile weather conditions, near-term deaths could occur as far as 18 miles from the plant, and in the worst-case scenario, as far as 60 miles away.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Projected thyroid doses for five-year-old children in midtown Manhattan exceed FDA thresholds for potassium iodide (KI) administration for both mean and 95th percentile weather scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adult whole-body total effective dose equivalents (TEDEs) in midtown Manhattan are projected to exceed the EPA Protective Action Guide (PAG) evacuation threshold of 1-5 rem.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic damages within 100 miles are estimated at $1.17 trillion for 95th percentile weather conditions and up to $2.12 trillion in the worst case, based on EPA guidance for relocation and cleanup.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For residents between 10.7 and 25 miles from the plant, sheltering for 24 hours is projected to result in fewer latent cancer fatalities than evacuation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Relaxing the long-term cleanup standard from 5 rem in 50 years to 25 rem in 50 years would reduce relocation numbers by 90% but nearly triple the number of long-term cancer deaths.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000783#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["New York City","Manhattan","Buchanan","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative risk assessment","impact analysis"]},{"id":"catf-000520","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000520","title":"Pricing it right: Accounting for non-permanent CCU while safeguarding the EU ETS","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/08104318/accounting-non-permanent-ccu-safeguarding-eu-ets.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the challenges of accounting for fossil CO2 used in non-permanent products (like plastics and fuels) in the EU ETS. It compares a 'final emitter pays' (downstream) approach, which avoids double pricing but risks emissions leakage, against a 'capture installation pays' (upstream) approach, which is the current system but risks double pricing if MWI is included. The authors recommend including MWI in the ETS by 2028 and suggest specific safeguards for either accounting path to maintain environmental integrity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000520#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 'final emitter pays' (downstream) approach avoids double pricing by placing the obligation to surrender allowances on the final emitter, but it introduces risks of emissions leakage where products are exported, landfilled, or used in applications outside the ETS scope.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000520#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'capture installation pays' (upstream) approach is the current ETS framework and requires fewer regulatory changes, but it risks repeated pricing for products that are later incinerated at municipal waste incineration (MWI) facilities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000520#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Product export is identified as the largest route for emissions leakage for CCU-plastics, with an estimated 2.96 MtCO2 escaping the EU ETS by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000520#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To mitigate double pricing in an upstream approach, the authors suggest a virtual system of Guarantees of Origin (GoO) certificates to track 'ETS exempt' fossil carbon in circulation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000520#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Without a cost pass-through mechanism, the final emitter pays approach may give CCU an advantage over carbon capture and storage (CCS) by incentivising capture installations to supply CO2 for utilisation to avoid storage costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000520#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors recommend the inclusion of municipal waste incineration (MWI) in the EU ETS starting in 2028 to incentivise decarbonisation through carbon capture, recycling, and waste prevention.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000520#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1","carbon price","carbon capture and storage","plastic"],"geography_discussed":["United Kingdom","Switzerland","Turkey","People's Republic of China","United States","Denmark"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","quantitative risk assessment"]},{"id":"wri-000461","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-000461","title":"Assessing Physical Climate Risks for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Power Generation Project Investment Portfolio","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.wri.org/research/assessing-physical-climate-risks-european-bank-power-portfolio","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper presents a new methodology using machine learning and climate science to assess physical climate risks for power generation portfolios. Pilot testing on the EBRD's thermal and hydro assets indicates that annual generation losses could increase from 0.76 TWh (0.4%) in the baseline period to 7.0 TWh (3.3%) under RCP4.5 and 7.4 TWh (3.5%) under RCP8.5 by 2030. The analysis identifies water stress and rising water temperatures as the primary drivers of loss for thermal assets, while hydro assets are primarily affected by reduced precipitation and upstream water consumption. The study further finds that combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants are more resilient than coal-fired plants, and that once-through cooling systems are the most vulnerable cooling technology.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000461#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"By 2030, the EBRD's thermal and hydro power portfolio is projected to experience annual generation losses of 7.0 TWh (3.3%) under the RCP4.5 moderate scenario and 7.4 TWh (3.5%) under the RCP8.5 extreme scenario, compared to 0.76 TWh (0.4%) during the baseline period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000461#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For thermal assets, the most significant drivers of increased generation losses are intensified water stress and rising water temperatures, followed by air temperature and drought-induced water shortages.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000461#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EBRD's hydropower portfolio is expected to see an overall reduction in annual generation by 2030—estimated at 222 GWh under RCP4.5 and 148 GWh under RCP8.5—primarily due to increased upstream water consumption and decreased precipitation, although some plants may see surpluses from increased local precipitation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000461#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal-fired power plants are less climate-resilient than combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants; by 2030, coal plants are projected to have generation losses of 1.7% (RCP4.5) and 2.1% (RCP8.5), which is more than double the losses of CCGT plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000461#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Once-through cooling systems are the most susceptible to climate-driven efficiency reductions and generation losses compared to recirculating or dry cooling systems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000461#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydropower","coal-fired power station","precipitation"],"geography_discussed":["World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative risk assessment","portfolio analysis"]}]}