{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["quantitative model analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'quantitative model analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=quantitative+model+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"wri-000104","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-000104","title":"Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper examines the treatment of uncertainty in UNFCCC long-term climate strategies, identifying common sources of uncertainty and evaluating current handling methods. It advocates for a model-assisted quantitative approach to scenario analysis to better identify policy-relevant pathways and reduce the vulnerability of long-term strategies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000104#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The primary sources of uncertainty in long-term climate strategies relate to future climate impacts, the deployment and innovation of technology, the reliability of greenhouse gas emission data, and the availability of large-scale carbon removal solutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000104#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Countries manage uncertainties by making assumptions, deferring analysis until more data is available, or using sensitivity and scenario analysis, with the latter being the most diverse method for framing uncertainties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000104#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author proposes and demonstrates a model-assisted quantitative approach to scenario analysis, arguing that addressing material uncertainties in this way can reduce the vulnerability of long-term strategies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000104#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide removal","climate impact"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["stock-take","literature review","quantitative model analysis"]}]}