{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["quantitative impact assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'quantitative impact assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":5,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=quantitative+impact+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"eninnova-000195","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000195","title":"China and the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Cultivating Mutual Benefits for the EU and China","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-04","source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/China-and-the-EUs-Carbon-Border-Adjustment-Mechanism.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the EU's proposed CBAM, which will impose fees on carbon-intensive imports starting in 2026. It finds that the overall impact on China's exports will be moderate due to the limited number of covered sectors, primarily aluminum, iron, and steel. The authors recommend that China expand its national emissions trading system (CN ETS) to reduce exposure to fees and enhance competitiveness. For the EU, the report suggests dedicating CBAM revenues to technical assistance for developing countries and recognizing non-price-based decarbonization policies to reduce international tensions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The EU CBAM is designed to address carbon leakage and competitiveness by charging fees on imports based on emissions intensity, with a pilot phase starting in 2023 and border fees beginning in 2026.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The initial scope of the CBAM is limited to five industries: iron and steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, and electrical energy, covering only direct emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"CBAM-covered products represent a small portion of China's total exports to the EU, approximately 1.8%, with aluminum and iron/steel making up 99% of those covered exports in 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Quantitative modeling from 'A Storm in a Teacup' suggests that the net cost to China—accounting for carbon price pass-through—will be between €150 million and €200 million, representing 0.04% to 0.06% of total EU exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China can mitigate CBAM costs and improve global competitiveness by expanding the CN ETS to include sectors like aluminum, iron, and steel, which would lower emissions intensity and reduce the carbon price gap with the EU.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU is encouraged to dedicate a portion of CBAM fees to technical assistance and decarbonization investments in developing countries to address equity concerns and the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends that the EU evolve the CBAM to credit 'shadow' carbon prices—implicit costs derived from non-price policies like energy efficiency standards—to avoid friction with partners like China.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000195#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","emission trading","carbon leakage","carbon price","cement","fertilizer","green hydrogen","climate finance","decarbonization","common but differentiated responsibility"],"geography_discussed":["United States","California","Russia","Turkey","France","Germany","Norway"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","quantitative impact assessment","strategic recommendation"]},{"id":"catf-000974","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000974","title":"Potential Human Health Impacts Associated with Retirement of Nuclear Power Plants in Illinois","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-04-14","source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/21092356/Illinois-Nuclear-Study-Revised-2-and-4-plants-FINAL-April-14-2021.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report estimates that retiring four nuclear plants in Illinois would lead to 1,200 to 2,700 premature deaths and $10 to $24 billion in monetized damages over ten years. Retiring two plants (Byron and Dresden) would result in 500 to 1,100 premature deaths and $4.4 to $10 billion in damages over the same period. These impacts are driven by increased PM2.5 emissions from fossil fuel plants used to offset the loss of zero-emission generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000974#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The retirement of four nuclear power plants in Illinois is estimated to cause between 1,200 and almost 2,700 premature deaths, nearly 140,000 work loss days, and over 30,000 additional asthma attacks and respiratory symptoms over a ten-year period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000974#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The retirement of two nuclear power plants (Byron and Dresden Generating Stations) is estimated to cause between 500 and 1,100 premature deaths, almost 57,000 work loss days, and over 13,000 additional asthma attacks and respiratory symptoms over a ten-year period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000974#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nuclear power","air pollution","public health"],"geography_discussed":["Ohio","Pennsylvania","Michigan","Louisiana","Indiana","Minnesota","West Virginia","Wisconsin","Iowa","New York","New Jersey","Maryland","Missouri","North Dakota","Tennessee","Texas","Oklahoma","Montana","New Mexico","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative impact assessment","economic valuation"]},{"id":"wmbco-000286","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wmbco-000286","title":"THE BUSINESS END OF CLIMATE CHANGE","publisher":{"name":"We Mean Business Coalition","organization":"we-mean-business-coalition"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016","source_url":"https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/The-Business-End-of-Climate-Change_1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report estimates that if five analyzed business initiatives achieve their most ambitious plans, they could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3.2-4.2 billion tonnes per year by 2030. If all relevant companies joined these initiatives, reductions could reach approximately 10 billion tonnes. The document emphasizes that achieving this systemic impact requires governments to remove regulatory barriers and provide incentives, such as carbon pricing and R&D support, to create a virtuous circle of ambition between the public and private sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"If the five analyzed initiatives achieve their most ambitious plans, business-determined contributions could reduce emissions by 3.2-4.2 billion tonnes per year by 2030, which is equivalent to 7-9% of global emissions from 2010.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'systemic impact' scenario, where every relevant business joins the initiatives, could result in emissions cuts of approximately 10 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases by 2030, helping to close the gap toward the 42 billion tonne limit required to keep global warming below 2°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Science Based Targets initiative alone could provide a direct impact of 1.9 billion tonnes and a systemic impact of 5.0 billion tonnes of reductions by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The RE100 initiative, which encourages companies to use 100% renewable electricity, is estimated to have a direct impact of 1.2-1.5 billion tonnes and a systemic impact of 4.5-5.7 billion tonnes by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Low Carbon Technology Partnership initiative (LCTPi) could achieve a systemic impact of 9-10 billion tonnes below current trends, with the largest contributions coming from renewables (5 GtCO2e) and climate smart agriculture (3.7 GtCO2e).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Zero Deforestation initiative could reduce emissions by 0.5-1.2 billion tonnes (direct) or 0.7-1.5 billion tonnes (systemic) by 2030, potentially wiping out emissions from deforestation in beef, timber, and palm oil exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EP100 initiative, focusing on doubling energy productivity, is estimated to have a direct impact of 0.3 billion tonnes and a systemic impact of 2.4 billion tonnes by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Corporate climate action is often hindered by regulatory barriers, such as regulations that prevent shifts to lower-emissions supply chains or a lack of commercial incentives for utilities to offer renewable energy contracts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To accelerate business action, the report recommends that governments implement consistent carbon pricing, support R&D for low-carbon technologies, and streamline certification for sustainable commodities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000286#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","renewable electricity","carbon price","climate finance","energy efficiency","sustainable procurement","Nationally Determined Contributions"],"geography_discussed":["Singapore","Australia","India","Brazil","Indonesia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative impact assessment","policy analysis"]},{"id":"sei-001518","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001518","title":"Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction Potential in Japan’s Power Sector","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2003-10","source_url":"https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/PowerSwitchJapan.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates a 'Power Switch' scenario for Japan's power sector, which emphasizes renewable energy, natural gas substitution for coal, energy efficiency, and a gradual nuclear phase-out. Compared to a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the Power Switch approach could reduce 2020 GHG emissions by 31%, avoiding nearly 2.0 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent between 2000 and 2020. The net cost of this transition is estimated at 1.1 trillion yen over the period, or 850 JPY per tonne of CO2 equivalent, largely offset by reduced fuel import costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 'Power Switch' (PS) scenario achieves a 31 percent reduction in annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to the 'Business As Usual' (BAU) scenario by 2020, and a 20 percent reduction relative to year 2000 emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2000 and 2020, the PS scenario would reduce Japan's GHG emissions by 94 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year by 2010 and 190 million tonnes per year by 2020, totaling nearly 2.0 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent over the two decades.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net cost of implementing the PS scenario from 2000 to 2020 is approximately 1.1 trillion yen, which equates to about 57 billion yen per year or 850 JPY per tonne of CO2 equivalent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The PS scenario's costs are balanced by significant savings: while demand-sector energy efficiency and distributed generation increase costs by nearly 20 trillion yen, these are offset by 14 trillion yen in power sector capital and operating cost reductions and 4.4 trillion yen in fuel import savings.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The PS scenario proposes a shift in the energy mix by retiring 24 GW of coal-fired capacity by 2020, implementing a gradual nuclear phase-out (retiring 10 GW of capacity by 2020), and increasing the share of renewables to 18.9 percent of total electricity output by 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Demand-side energy efficiency and distributed generation are critical to the PS scenario, estimated to reduce electricity demand by 114 TWh by 2010 and 238 TWh by 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The PS scenario improves Japan's energy security and fuel diversity by reducing coal imports by nearly 70 percent and nuclear fuel imports by 20 percent relative to the BAU scenario by 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The BAU scenario projects that electricity consumption will grow from 968 TWh in 2000 to 1168 TWh in 2020, with GHG emissions from the electricity sector increasing by 21 percent from 2000 levels to 480 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001518#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","greenhouse gas emissions","energy transition","renewable energy","photovoltaics","wind power","bioenergy","nuclear power","phase-out","coal-fired power station","natural gas","energy efficiency","energy security","Kyoto Protocol","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","quantitative impact assessment","cost-benefit analysis"]},{"id":"catf-000973","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000973","title":"Potential Human Health Impacts Associated with Retirement of Nuclear Power Plants in Illinois","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/21093616/IL-Study.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) used US EPA COBRA modeling to estimate that retiring four Illinois nuclear plants (Byron, Dresden, Braidwood, and LaSalle) would lead to significant increases in PM2.5 pollution. Over a ten-year period, this shift is projected to cause between 1,200 and 2,700 premature deaths and $10 to $24 billion in monetized damages. While the pollution sources are spread across ten states, the most severe health impacts are concentrated in the Midwest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000973#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The retirement of four nuclear power plants in Illinois—Byron, Dresden, Braidwood, and LaSalle—is projected to cause cumulative health impacts over ten years, including between 1,200 and almost 2,700 premature deaths and over 30,000 additional asthma attacks and respiratory symptoms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000973#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic cost of the increased air pollution resulting from these plant closures is estimated at $10 to $24 billion over a ten-year period, with annual damages ranging from $1 to $2.4 billion. Approximately 99% of these costs are attributed to premature mortality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000973#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The loss of zero-emission nuclear generation would lead to increased emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from replacement fossil fuel generators. Illinois is the largest contributor to these increases, accounting for 28% of SO2, 29% of NOx, and 33% of PM2.5 emission changes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000973#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While emission increases occur across multiple states, the health impacts are distributed based on population density and pollution drift. Illinois is projected to have the highest annual health impacts among all states, including 10-24 premature deaths, 299 asthma exacerbations, and 1,329 work loss days.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000973#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis indicates that the retirement of five Vistra Energy coal-fueled power plants (Coffeen, Duck Creek, Havana, Hennepin, and E.D. Edwards) would not significantly alter the overall health impact of the nuclear plant closures, as the loss of coal generation would be offset by other sources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000973#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nuclear power","air pollution","public health","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["World","Indiana","Michigan","Pennsylvania","Ohio","Minnesota","West Virginia","Louisiana","Wisconsin","Iowa","New York","New Jersey","Maryland","Virginia","Texas","Oklahoma","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative impact assessment","economic modeling"]}]}