{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["quantitative gap analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'quantitative gap analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=quantitative+gap+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"gem-000248","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000248","title":"Production Gap Report 2023","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-11","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2023_web_rev_3.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit. While many major producers have pledged net-zero emissions, most continue to expand production, with global coal production projected to increase until 2030 and oil and gas until at least 2050. The report argues for a managed, equitable phase-out of all fossil fuels, noting that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical uncertainties and a poor track record of pilot project success.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Governments collectively plan to produce approximately 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than is consistent with a 2°C limit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current government plans and projections indicate that global coal production will increase until 2030, while oil and gas production will increase until at least 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite net-zero pledges from 17 of the 20 profiled major producer countries, none have committed to reducing production in line with the 1.5°C warming limit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040, and a minimum three-quarters reduction in combined oil and gas production and use by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) is deemed risky, as approximately 80% of pilot CCS projects over the last 30 years have failed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition is at risk of being inequitable, as the planned production of just 10 high-income countries would exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways for each fuel by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Many governments promote natural gas as a 'bridge' or 'transition' fuel, but the report warns this may lock in fossil-fuel-based systems and delay the shift to renewables.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Existing fossil fuel infrastructure already generates committed CO2 emissions that exceed the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State-owned enterprises maintain significant control over global supply, managing half of global oil and gas production and over half of coal production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000248#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petroleum industry","carbon capture and storage","carbon dioxide removal","Net-zero emissions","just transition","stranded asset","methane emissions","Paris Agreement","Nationally Determined Contributions","energy transition","fossil fuel subsidy"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States","Russia","Saudi Arabia","Australia","Indonesia","India","Canada","United Arab Emirates","Qatar","South Africa","Norway","Brazil","Kazakhstan","Kuwait","Nigeria","Colombia","United Kingdom","Germany","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative gap analysis","policy review","scenario comparison"]},{"id":"sei-001513","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001513","title":"Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2023","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that global governments plan to produce significantly more fossil fuels by 2030 and 2050 than is consistent with the 1.5°C warming limit. Despite net-zero pledges, many major producers continue to plan increases in coal, oil, and gas extraction. The report argues for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, noting that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001513#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Governments are planning to produce fossil fuels in 2030 at levels approximately 110% above what is consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and 69% above levels consistent with a 2°C limit. This gap is projected to widen by 2050, with planned production reaching 350% and 150% above the 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001513#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current government projections indicate that global coal production will increase until 2030, while oil and gas production will increase until at least 2050. This contradicts the need for rapid declines to meet Paris Agreement goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001513#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among 20 major producer countries analyzed, 17 have pledged net-zero emissions, yet none have committed to reducing the production of coal, oil, and gas in alignment with the 1.5°C warming limit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001513#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report highlights a lack of equity in the transition, noting that 10 high-income countries alone plan fossil fuel production levels that would exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways for every fuel by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001513#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deemed uncertain; approximately 80% of pilot CCS projects from the last 30 years have failed, and current operational capacity for dedicated CO2 storage is less than 0.01 GtCO2/yr.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001513#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To mitigate risks associated with CCS and CDR, the report recommends a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040, and a minimum three-quarters reduction in combined oil and gas production and use by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001513#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petroleum industry","Net-zero emissions","Paris Agreement","carbon capture and storage","carbon dioxide removal","methane emissions","stranded asset","just transition","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Australia","Brazil","Canada","People's Republic of China","Colombia","Germany","India","Indonesia","Kazakhstan","Kuwait","Mexico","Nigeria","Norway","Qatar","Russia","Saudi Arabia","South Africa","United Arab Emirates","United Kingdom","United States","Ukraine"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","quantitative gap analysis","scenario comparison"]},{"id":"seforall-000379","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/seforall-000379","title":"CHILLING PROSPECTS: PROVIDING SUSTAINABLE COOLING FOR ALL","publisher":{"name":"Sustainable Energy for All","organization":"sustainable-energy-for-all"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.seforall.org/system/files/gather-content/SEforALL_CoolingForAll-Report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies a significant global cooling access gap affecting approximately 3.4 billion people, categorized into the rural poor, slum dwellers, carbon captives, and middle-income groups. It highlights the critical role of cooling in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly regarding heat-related mortality, vaccine preservation, and agricultural food loss. The document emphasizes the intersection of the SDGs, the Paris Agreement, and the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, warning that unmanaged demand for inefficient air conditioning could lead to a massive increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. It proposes a holistic 'thinking thermally' approach, combining passive cooling, district cooling, and efficient technology with innovative financing models like PAYGO to provide sustainable cooling for all.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Approximately 1.1 billion people face immediate cooling access risks, comprising 470 million rural poor lacking electricity and cold chains, and 630 million slum dwellers in hot urban areas with poor or intermittent electricity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A group of 2.3 billion 'carbon captives'—the lower-middle class in developing countries—are at risk of purchasing inefficient cooling appliances, which could cause global cooling energy demand to rise more than 33-fold by 2100 if not managed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lack of cooling has severe health and economic impacts: heat waves kill an estimated 12,000 people annually, and by 2050, deaths could reach 255,000 per year without adaptation. Economically, work-hour losses by 2050 could reach 12% of annual GDP in parts of South Asia and West Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Inefficient cold chains contribute to massive food loss; one-third of all food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted annually, with two-thirds of this wastage occurring in Africa and Asia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies nine priority countries facing the highest cooling-related risks: India, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Mozambique, China, Brazil, Pakistan, and Indonesia. India is the only country appearing in all three high-risk categories (rural poor, slum dwellers, and carbon captives).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol provides a critical opportunity to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—potent greenhouse gases—by more than 80% over 30 years, which can be leveraged to redesign cooling products for higher energy efficiency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sustainable cooling requires a holistic 'thinking thermally' approach that prioritizes demand reduction through passive measures—such as 'cool roofs' which can reduce internal temperatures by 20%—before deploying technical solutions like district cooling.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Financing remains a major barrier for the rural poor; however, Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) models for off-grid solar systems have successfully enabled low-income consumers to acquire fans and refrigerators.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000379#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy efficiency","hydrofluorocarbon","urban heat island","passive cooling","climate finance","Paris Agreement","Sustainable Development Goals","food security"],"geography_discussed":["India","Nigeria","People's Republic of China","Brazil","Indonesia","Pakistan","Bangladesh","South Africa","Thane","Ahmedabad"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["risk assessment","policy analysis","quantitative gap analysis"]}]}