{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["quantitative financial modelling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'quantitative financial modelling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=quantitative+financial+modelling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"clipolin-001061","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-001061","title":"Understanding the impact of a low carbon transition on South Africa","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-03","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/CPI-Energy-Finance-Understanding-the-impact-of-a-low-carbon-transition-on-South-Africa-March-2019.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"South Africa faces a cumulative transition risk of over $120 billion in present value terms between 2013 and 2035, primarily driven by declining global demand for coal exports. While investors initially bear the majority of this risk, implicit transfers and contingent liabilities could shift more than half of the total risk onto the national government, potentially jeopardising its investment-grade sovereign credit rating. The report identifies significant risks to state-owned enterprises like Transnet and Eskom, and private entities such as Sasol and Exxaro. Conversely, a global transition could provide a $45.5 billion windfall for consumers through lower oil prices. The document recommends that the South African government avoid new carbon-intensive investments, develop fiscal tools to capture oil windfalls to offset coal losses, and implement transparent transition plans for workers and municipalities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa faces a total transition risk exceeding $120 billion in present value terms between 2013 and 2035, with risks accelerating in the mid-2020s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Approximately 75% of the transition risk is driven by factors outside the South African government's control, and nearly 50% of this risk was already realised between 2013 and 2017 due to falling long-term forecasts for seaborne coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While investors explicitly bear about 84% of the downside risk, implicit transfers and contingent liabilities could increase the national government's share of cumulative risk from 16% to over 54%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The decline in seaborne coal exports is the primary driver of risk, with a projected $83.7 billion negative impact, significantly outweighing the benefits of lower oil prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A global low-carbon transition could create a $45.5 billion windfall for South African consumers due to lower global oil prices, though this would be partially offset by an $8.3 billion loss for energy industry players, particularly synthetic fuel producers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Planned capital investments in new mines, rail infrastructure, and refineries could add more than $25 billion to the country's transition risk if they are not resilient to a 2-degree scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transition risks could lead to a sovereign credit rating downgrade if they cause a sharp rise in public debt through lower tax revenues and increased contingent liabilities for SOEs and municipalities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transnet faces significant risk as its coal rail line may become loss-making after 2030, potentially jeopardising its investment-grade credit rating.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa (IDC) has a material exposure to transition risk, with over 10% of its total loans and investments at risk, including a high concentration in Sasol.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition is expected to result in 25,000 to 35,000 job losses in the coal mining sector between 2018 and 2035, though this is a slowing of a long-term decline driven by mechanization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001061#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","stranded asset","renewable energy","climate finance","carbon capture and storage","electric vehicle","just transition","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","Europe","United States","Cape Town","Mpumulanga","Limpopo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative financial modelling","scenario analysis","risk assessment"]}]}