{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["prospective modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'prospective modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=prospective+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-002229","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002229","title":"Actualización Plan Energético Nacional (PEN) 2022- 2052","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":"2024-03","source_url":"https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The PEN 2022-2052 is a long-term planning exercise by Colombia's UPME to transition the national energy matrix toward sustainability and decarbonization. It analyzes five scenarios—Actualization, Modernization, Inflexion, Innovation, and Energy Transition—ranging from conservative technological updates to ambitious transformations. Key focus areas include the electrification of transport, the integration of non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER), the development of a hydrogen economy, and the potential introduction of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). The report emphasizes that while Colombia has the capacity for carbon neutrality, current trajectories may not meet the 2030 NDC goal of a 51% emission reduction without accelerated implementation of efficiency and substitution measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Colombia's primary energy supply was heavily dependent on fossils in 2020, with petroleum, natural gas, and coal accounting for approximately 79% of the total.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The national electricity matrix in 2022 had an installed capacity of 18,626 MW, with 67.1% from hydraulic sources, 30.4% from thermal sources, 1.7% from solar, and 0.8% from wind and distributed generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Colombia faces a potential risk of losing oil self-sufficiency around 2027 based on the most conservative supply scenario (Scenario 1), which considers only proven reserves.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Natural gas self-sufficiency is also threatened, with Scenario 1 predicting a need for increased imports starting in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"None of the proposed scenarios currently achieve the 2021 NDC commitment to reduce emissions by 51% by 2030, highlighting a gap in the speed of transformation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report proposes the gradual introduction of nuclear energy via Small Modular Reactors (SMR) starting in 2035 or 2038, with capacities ranging from 300 MW to 1,800 MW depending on the scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green hydrogen production is a key pillar for future exports and internal use, with the Innovation scenario projecting 16.5 GW of installed capacity by 2052.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transport sector is identified as the largest consumer of energy and the primary source of emissions, with a projected shift toward 100% electric vehicle sales by 2052 in the most ambitious scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy efficiency is presented as the foundation of the transition, with the potential to reduce annual costs by between 6.6 and 11 billion USD.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total investment required for the energy transition is estimated between 2,000 and 3,807 trillion Colombian pesos, with the private sector expected to cover approximately 65% of these costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002229#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","decarbonization","green hydrogen","blue hydrogen","solar energy","wind power","offshore wind power","nuclear power","energy efficiency","electric vehicle","greenhouse gas emissions","Nationally Determined Contributions","just transition","distributed generation","energy storage"],"geography_discussed":["World","Brazil","Argentina","Chile","Mexico","Netherlands","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["prospective modeling","scenario analysis","cost-benefit analysis"]}]}