{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["projection"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":107,"relation":"eq"},"page":6,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=projection&page=6","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"climcent-000125","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000125","title":"Lost Winter: Above-freezing days added by climate change","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.climatecentral.org/toolkit-snow-and-ice","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Climate change is increasing the number of winter days with minimum temperatures above freezing across the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a reduction in snow cover and freshwater supplies. In the contiguous U.S., annual snowfall has decreased at 64% of 2,041 stations since 1970, and snow-derived freshwater in the western U.S. has fallen by 15-30% since 1955, with a further 25% decline projected by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000125#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Human-caused warming has led to a significant increase in 'lost winter days'—days with minimum temperatures above freezing—across the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to the shrinkage of ice sheets, glaciers, sea ice, permafrost, and snow cover.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000125#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the contiguous United States, snowfall is decreasing as a warming atmosphere holds approximately 4% more moisture per 1°F of warming, causing more precipitation to fall as rain. Since 1970, annual snowfall has decreased at 64% of 2,041 stations, and over 80% of 170 weather stations report less snow than in the late 1940s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000125#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Snow-derived freshwater in the western U.S. decreased by 15-30% between 1955 and the present, and is projected to decline by an additional 25% by 2050. Globally, Northern Hemisphere snow cover is estimated to decrease at a rate of -8% per 1.8°F (1°C) of global surface air warming.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000125#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Western United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","projection"]},{"id":"rmi-000774","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-000774","title":"Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a methodology for estimating GHG emissions reductions achievable through land use reform in the US. It projects that over 13 million new housing units will be needed by 2033 to address population growth and existing shortages. By comparing a 'business as usual' scenario with a 'low VMT' scenario—where 90% of new housing is placed in the 90th percentile lowest VMT areas of each state—the analysis calculates potential savings in direct tailpipe emissions, vehicle lifecycle emissions, and indirect emissions from building energy, embodied carbon, and the loss of natural land carbon sinks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000774#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The analysis projects that more than 13 million new housing units will be added nationally by 2033 if states eliminate existing housing shortages and accommodate projected population growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000774#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'low VMT' scenario assumes that 90% of new housing is associated with the 90th percentile lowest VMT per capita already achievable in each state, while the remaining 10% corresponds to the current state average.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000774#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indirect emissions sources—including building energy, embodied carbon, and the loss of land sinks—can almost double the total GHG impact of car-oriented communities compared to direct tailpipe emissions alone.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000774#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis identifies specific indirect GHG contributors: building energy (4% to ~10%), housing embodied carbon (3%), and the loss of natural land sinks (at least 7%) relative to national direct tailpipe emissions of 1,100 million tons CO2e/year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000774#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For states committed to the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII) standard—including California, Vermont, New York, Washington, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Maryland—the electric vehicle (EV) stock percentage is projected to reach 33% by 2033.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000774#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Based on the provided data table, Texas (TX) has the highest potential gross rough lifecycle GHG savings at 12.4 MMT CO2e/Year, followed by California (CA) at 8.3 MMT CO2e/Year and Florida (FL) at 7.0 MMT CO2e/Year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-000774#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","electric vehicle","embedded emissions"],"geography_discussed":["World","Alaska","California","Washington","New York","Colorado","District of Columbia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["methodology","technical supplement","projection"]},{"id":"ucs-001228","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-001228","title":"Microsoft Word - midwest.doc","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/us-global-climate-change-report-midwest.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document details how a warming climate will increase the frequency and severity of heat waves and heavy precipitation in the Midwest, leading to higher mortality, infrastructure damage, and agricultural losses. It highlights specific risks to the Great Lakes shipping industry due to falling water levels and the threat to public health from water-borne diseases and combined sewer overflows in cities like Chicago and Milwaukee.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001228#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Heat waves in the Midwest are projected to become more frequent, severe, and longer-lasting. Under a higher emissions scenario, heat waves similar to the 1995 Chicago event, which caused over 700 deaths, could occur approximately three times per year by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001228#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Great Lakes ice coverage decreased by roughly 30 percent between 1973 and 2008, with a rate of -8.4 percent per decade. Future water levels are projected to fall by 1 to 2 feet under a higher emissions scenario, which increases shipping costs because large vessels lose up to 240 tons of capacity for every inch of draft lost.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001228#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Precipitation intensity is increasing, with heavy downpours now twice as frequent as they were a century ago. This trend increases the risk of catastrophic flooding, such as the Great Flood of 1993 and the June 2008 Midwest flood, which disrupted major transportation and freight routes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001228#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased heavy rainfall threatens urban water quality through combined sewer systems, where raw sewage spills into waterways. In Chicago, rainfall exceeding 2.5 inches per day triggers such overflows into Lake Michigan; this threshold is projected to be exceeded twice as often under lower emissions and three times as often under higher emissions by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001228#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change impacts on Midwest agriculture include delayed spring planting due to flooding and increased livestock costs from heat stress. While longer growing seasons and higher CO2 may benefit some yields, these are likely offset by increased pests, invasive weeds, and the risk of crop damage from wind and extreme heat exceeding 90\u000fC.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001228#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["heat wave","air quality","vector-borne disease","precipitation","flood","water management","agriculture","crop yield","drought"],"geography_discussed":["Chicago","Europe","Great Lakes","St. Lawrence Seaway","Canada","Mississippi River","Missouri River","St. Louis","Kansas City","Iowa","Illinois","Missouri","Cedar Rapids","Milwaukee","New York City","Washington, D.C.","Philadelphia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["impact assessment","projection"]},{"id":"ucs-001229","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-001229","title":"Microsoft Word - northeast.doc","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/us-global-climate-change-report-northeast.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Since 1970, the Northeast has seen an average temperature increase of 2°F, leading to longer growing seasons and reduced snowpack. Future high-emissions scenarios project further warming, significant reductions in winter snow seasons, and increased frequency of extreme heat and flooding. These changes threaten the dairy and fruit industries, particularly cranberries, and risk substantial damage to coastal infrastructure in cities like New York and Boston. Additionally, the region's $7.6 billion winter recreation industry and specific fisheries, such as cod and lobster, face disruption due to warming waters and reduced snow cover.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Northeast has experienced a 2°F increase in annual average temperature since 1970, with winter temperatures rising twice as much. Future projections suggest further increases of 1.5 to 3.5°F in summer and 2.5 to 4°F in winter over the coming decades.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under high-emissions scenarios by the end of the century, the winter snow season is expected to be reduced by half in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, and dwindle to only one or two weeks in southern areas of the region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate warming threatens the viability of fruit and dairy production. Cranberry production in Massachusetts and New Jersey may become unsustainable by mid-century due to lack of winter chilling. In parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, milk production could decline by 20 percent or more.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coastal flooding and sea-level rise pose severe risks to major cities. A 2-foot global sea-level rise would result in a 2.3-foot relative rise in New York City. Under high-emissions scenarios, a 100-year coastal flood in New York City could occur once per decade by late this century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The regional winter recreation economy, valued at $7.6 billion annually, is at risk. Alpine skiing and other snow sports account for $4.6 billion, while snowmobiling accounts for $3 billion; the latter is projected to have a marginal or non-existent season by mid-century in most of the region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Marine species are shifting distributions; lobster fisheries are moving northward, while the cod fishery on Georges Bank is likely to diminish as bottom temperatures above 47°F lead to declines in growth and survival.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Terrestrial ecosystems are responding rapidly to warming. In New England mountains, the transition zone for tree species has shifted approximately 350 feet uphill in a few decades, with cold-loving species declining from 43 to 18 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001229#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sea level rise","storm surge","agriculture","coastal flood"],"geography_discussed":["New York City","Boston","Philadelphia","Hartford","Pennsylvania","World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["impact assessment","projection"]},{"id":"ucs-001231","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-001231","title":"Microsoft Word - southwest.doc","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/us-global-climate-change-report-southwest.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Southwest is projected to warm by 4-6°F under lower-emissions and 7-10°F under higher-emissions scenarios by the end of the century. The region faces severe water scarcity, expanding deserts, and reduced runoff, particularly in the Colorado River system. Public health risks include increased heat-related deaths in Los Angeles and worsening air quality. Economic threats include reduced yields for California specialty crops, diminished ski resort profitability due to snowpack loss, and reduced aircraft freight capacity at high-altitude airports like Phoenix and Denver. Biodiversity is critically threatened, especially in the Madrean Pine-Oak Woodlands, while mountain ecosystems face range reductions and reproductive failures in wildflowers due to earlier snowmelt and spring frosts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Southwest is projected to warm between 4 and 6°F under a lower-emissions scenario and between 7 and 10°F under a higher-emissions scenario by the end of the century, with recent warming already exceeding the global average in some areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The region is expected to become drier, with deserts expanding north, east, and upward in elevation. Water scarcity is increasing as groundwater pumping lowers water tables and rising temperatures reduce river flows, including the Colorado River.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Colorado River system is highly vulnerable; between 1999 and 2007, the system lost approximately half of its storage following the worst drought in 100 years. Future climate-driven flow reductions will challenge water managers' ability to meet the demands of a growing population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks in California. In Los Angeles, annual heat-related deaths by the 2090s could increase two to three times under lower emissions and five to seven times under high emissions compared to the 1990s baseline. Air pollution days could increase by 25-35% (lower emissions) or 75-85% (higher emissions) in Los Angeles and the San Joaquin Valley.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural productivity in California is threatened by a reduction in winter chilling hours required for specialty crops like almonds, walnuts, and apricots. Estimated losses for wine and table grapes, almonds, oranges, walnuts, and avocadoes range from zero to 40 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Infrastructure and tourism are at risk: ski resorts from New Mexico to California may see end-of-season snowpack decrease by 40 to 90 percent under high emissions. Additionally, higher temperatures reduce aircraft lift, with projected freight capacity reductions by 2030 of 17% at Denver airport and 9% at Phoenix airport.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biodiversity is severely impacted, particularly in the Madrean Pine-Oak Woodlands, which has already lost over 70% of native vegetation. In California, two-thirds of over 5,500 native plant species may see range reductions up to 80% by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-001231#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","drought","water scarcity","desertification","flood","urban heat island","air quality","wildfire","agricultural productivity"],"geography_discussed":["Phoenix","Albuquerque","Las Vegas","Louisiana","Georgia","Alabama","Florida","Oregon","Washington State","Los Angeles","San Joaquin Valley","Denver"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["impact assessment","projection"]},{"id":"wri-000310","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-000310","title":"Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward A Low-Carbon Future","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.wri.org/research/delivering-us-climate-commitment-10-point-plan-toward-low-carbon-future","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a strategy for the United States to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stating that a 26 percent reduction below 2005 levels by 2025 is achievable through a comprehensive approach including the Clean Power Plan. It identifies the power sector as the primary opportunity for reductions, potentially reaching 30 percent by 2025 if policies are strengthened or renewable costs decline. For longer-term goals, the paper argues that Congressional action, specifically a national carbon price, could enable reductions of 40-42 percent by 2030 and 50-53 percent by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000310#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The United States can achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions of 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 if the administration strengthens current policies, fully implements the Clean Power Plan, and uses existing authority to address remaining emission sources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000310#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The power sector offers the most significant potential for reductions; further strengthening the Clean Power Plan or continued declines in renewable energy costs could increase total emission reductions to 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000310#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing a national carbon price and additional economy-wide measures through Congressional action could lead to emission reductions of 40-42 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and 50-53 percent by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000310#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","Clean Power Plan","renewable energy","hydrofluorocarbon","carbon price","energy transition","climate policy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","projection"]},{"id":"wri-001591","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-001591","title":"Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Interim Findings","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future-interim-findings","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The world faces a 69 percent gap between 2006 crop calories and those required by 2050 for a population of 9.6 billion. Closing this gap through production alone would require increases exceeding those seen between 1962 and 2006. The document proposes a 'menu of solutions' categorized by reducing consumption, increasing production on existing land, and reducing emissions. Key strategies include cutting food loss and waste in half (reducing the gap by 20%), achieving replacement level fertility in sub-Saharan Africa (reducing the regional gap by 25%), and shifting 20% of future beef consumption to other proteins. It warns that aggressive bioenergy targets could widen the food gap to 100%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The world faces a projected 69 percent gap between crop calories produced in 2006 and those required by 2050 to feed an estimated population of 9.6 billion. Closing this gap solely through production would require a total crop production increase 11 percent larger than the increase seen from 1962 to 2006.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural production is a major driver of environmental degradation and climate change. Land conversion for agriculture accounts for approximately 11 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, while current production (excluding land use change) releases about 6.5 gigatons of CO2e annually. Without mitigation, total agriculture-related emissions could reach 15 Gt by 2050, which would consume a significant portion of the global carbon budget needed to limit warming to 2° Celsius.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reducing food loss and waste is a highly effective strategy for closing the food gap. Globally, cutting these losses in half by 2050 would reduce the food gap by approximately 20 percent. In developing countries, two-thirds of these losses occur during harvesting, handling, and storage, making this a particularly cost-effective option for sub-Saharan Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Dietary shifts, particularly regarding animal products, can reduce land and emission demands. Beef is identified as highly inefficient, converting only 1 percent of gross animal feed energy into human food. Shifting 20 percent of anticipated future global beef consumption to other proteins would save hundreds of millions of hectares of carbon-storing land.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Addressing fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa is critical for regional food security. The region's fertility rate is 5.4 children per woman, compared to a replacement level of roughly 2.1. Achieving replacement level fertility in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 would reduce the global food gap by 9 percent and the regional food gap by 25 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increasing yields without expanding land requires 'smarter farming' and improved breeding. To meet crop needs without expanding harvested areas, average yields would need to grow 32 percent faster from 2006 to 2050 than they did from 1962 to 2006. Opportunities include agroforestry in sub-Saharan Africa's drylands and utilizing low-carbon degraded lands, such as 14 million hectares in Indonesia's Kalimantan region for palm oil.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Bioenergy targets pose a significant risk to food security. If the world met a goal of 10 percent transportation fuel from biofuels by 2050, the food gap would widen from 69 percent to approximately 100 percent. Conversely, abandoning crop-based biofuels for transportation would close the 2050 crop calorie gap by about 14 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001591#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food security","greenhouse gas emissions","land-use change","deforestation","biodiversity loss","sustainable agriculture","agroforestry","carbon sequestration","biofuel","aquaculture","crop yield"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","Indonesia","Malaysia","United States","Europe","India","Niger","Kalimantan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["technical assessment","projection","policy analysis"]}]}