{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["probabilistic risk assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'probabilistic risk assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=probabilistic+risk+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"climcent-000288","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000288","title":"Heat Trends for Holi","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2024","source_url":"https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/1dXKX2iBQwBQ9EChWx9jiS/4e63cf8a807f65ed7f92b90393f9544f/Climate_Central_analysis_Heat_Trends_for_Holi_2024.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The analysis finds that all regions of India experienced net warming in March and April since 1970, with the fastest March warming in Jammu and Kashmir. The probability of temperatures exceeding 40°C during late March has expanded from three states in the 1970s to nine states in 2024, with Bilaspur currently facing the highest risk at 31%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000288#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Every region analyzed in India showed net warming during March and April since 1970. The most significant March warming occurred in Jammu and Kashmir, with a change of 2.8°C, while Mizoram saw the largest April change at 1.9°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000288#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The risk of temperatures exceeding 40°C during the Holi period (late March/early April) has increased significantly. In the early 1970s, only Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar had more than a 5% chance of reaching these temperatures; in 2024, this risk extends to nine states, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000288#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"City-level analysis shows that 37 of 51 large cities now have at least a 1% chance of experiencing temperatures of 40°C or warmer, with 11 cities exceeding a 10% probability. Bilaspur has the highest current risk at 31%, and Indore has seen the largest relative increase in risk, now 8.1 times higher than in the 1970s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000288#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["extreme heat","climate change","extreme event attribution"],"geography_discussed":["Jammu and Kashmir","Mizoram","Maharashtra","Chhattisgarh","Bihar","Rajasthan","Gujarat","Telangana","Madhya Pradesh","Odisha","Andhra Pradesh","Bilaspur","Indore","Madurai","Bhopal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["trend analysis","probabilistic risk assessment"]}]}