{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["probabilistic analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'probabilistic analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=probabilistic+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"climcent-000080","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000080","title":"2026 World Cup: Climate Change Boosts Performance-Impairing Heat at Nearly Every Match","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06-03","source_url":"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/world-cup-matches","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Climate Central analysis indicates that climate change increases the probability of performance-impairing heat (above 28°C) for 97 out of 104 scheduled 2026 World Cup matches. Nearly half of the matches face at least a 50% chance of such heat, with the highest impact seen in the June 26 match in Guadalajara. To mitigate health and performance risks, organizers have implemented mandatory hydration breaks and increased evening matches, though only three stadiums (Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston) are fully climate-controlled.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000080#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change is increasing the probability of temperatures exceeding the 28°C (82.4°F) performance-impairing threshold for 97 of the 104 scheduled World Cup matches, raising the odds by an average of approximately 8 percentage points.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000080#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Forty-nine matches have a 50% or greater likelihood of experiencing performance-impairing heat; for 26 of these, climate change increases that likelihood by 10 percentage points or more.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000080#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara on June 26 is the most affected by climate change, with a 70% chance of performance-impairing heat, which is 37 percentage points higher than it would be without climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000080#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The final match on July 19 at MetLife Stadium (New York New Jersey Stadium) has a 47% likelihood of performance-impairing heat, an increase of about 17 percentage points attributed to climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000080#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To manage heat risks, organizers are using more evening matches and mandatory hydration breaks for all 104 matches, and may postpone games if the web-bulb globe temperature reaches 32°C (89.6°F). Only the stadiums in Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston are fully climate-controlled.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000080#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","extreme heat","carbon dioxide emissions","heat stress","climate change adaptation","climate modeling"],"geography_discussed":["Guadalajara","Mexico City","New Jersey","Atlanta","Dallas","Houston","Brazil"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["probabilistic analysis","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"earjust-001741","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/earjust-001741","title":"Limited Expert Review of Probably Hydrologic Consequences and Ground Water Model Reports for Bull Mountain Mine Number 1 - AM6","publisher":{"name":"Earthjustice","organization":"earthjustice"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-07-12","source_url":"https://earthjustice.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/gardnerphcreviewbull-mountainmine1-2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Dr. W. Payton Gardner's review concludes that the PHC and GMR for the Bull Mountain Mine contain significant omissions and non-conservative assumptions. The review highlights a failure to quantitatively analyze impacts on over 50 local springs and shallow groundwater wells, a groundwater model that ignores fracture flow processes and incorrectly assumes 'healing' in mudstone layers, and a mitigation strategy relying on the UB2A sandstone aquifer that is likely insufficient in both volume and water quality.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"earjust-001741#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The PHC report fails to provide quantitative analysis of the risks to shallow water resources, including over 50 springs with seasonal discharges exceeding 1 gallon per minute (gpm). The author notes that some undermined springs no longer follow previous seasonal patterns or have stopped flowing, despite wetter conditions in 2022 and 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"earjust-001741#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The groundwater model is criticized for using porous media parameterization instead of explicitly considering fracture flow, which likely leads to an underestimation of the hydraulic connection between the mine and the surface.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"earjust-001741#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The model relies on an untested assumption that mudstone layers thicker than 10 feet undergo 'fracture healing,' which the reviewer argues is not guaranteed for indurated clays and likely minimizes the predicted mining effects on surface reservoirs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"earjust-001741#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed use of the Sandstone UB2A deep underburden aquifer for mitigation is likely inadequate. A probabilistic analysis of 1,000 realizations suggests that a single well pumping at 6 gpm could cause a median drawdown of 60 feet at the mine boundary after 100 years, making it unlikely to meet the replacement demands for numerous shallow wells and springs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"earjust-001741#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mitigation water from the UB2A aquifer is likely of lower quality than the shallow water it would replace. The mean conductivity of UB2A water is 2605 μS/cm (Class III), compared to 1607 μS/cm for spring water and 1740 μS/cm for shallow overburden water (both Class II).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"earjust-001741#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water quality","water management"],"geography_discussed":["West Virginia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["expert review","probabilistic analysis","technical critique"]},{"id":"eninnova-000220","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000220","title":"The Extremes Become the Norm","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2013-06","source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/extremesbecomenorm_finalupdate1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that climate change shifts the probability curve of temperature and precipitation, making once-rare extreme events common. It highlights that while a 4°C rise in average temperature may seem small, it significantly increases the likelihood of deadly heat waves and catastrophic floods. The document cites specific examples from the United States, Russia, and Australia to illustrate the economic and social risks, attributing 90% of global warming to human activity and urging immediate emissions reductions and adaptation measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000220#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A small shift in the average global temperature results in a significantly higher frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures and a lower frequency of extreme low temperatures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000220#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the United States, July temperatures are rising; the average July temperature for this century is 75.5°F, which is more than 1 degree warmer than the 20th century norm of 74°F.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000220#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate projections suggest that by the end of the century, some areas in Texas that typically see 10-20 days over 100°F annually will experience such temperatures for nearly four months every year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000220#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The probability curve for rainfall is expected to flatten and shift, increasing the likelihood of both extreme droughts and major floods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000220#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human activity is responsible for 90% of global warming over the last 250 years, with carbon dioxide concentrations surpassing 400ppm for the first time in human history in May 2013.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000220#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic impact of natural disasters is increasing, with worldwide costs reaching a record $380 billion in 2011.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000220#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["extreme weather event","climate change","carbon dioxide","climate change adaptation","food security","drought","flood"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Texas","Russia","Queensland"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["probabilistic analysis","trend analysis"]}]}