{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["participatory scenario-building"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'participatory scenario-building' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=participatory+scenario-building","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-001820","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001820","title":"Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-06","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines three development pathways for Rwanda—reference, pessimistic, and optimistic—to explore the synergies and trade-offs between agricultural transformation and energy transition. It provides the specific quantitative inputs and qualitative assumptions used in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models, including GDP growth, population trends, land-use changes, and cookstove penetration rates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001820#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The report establishes three primary development pathways for Rwanda through 2050: a reference scenario based on historical trends, a pessimistic scenario characterized by weak implementation of national plans and slow modernization, and an optimistic scenario where national goals for agricultural and energy modernization are achieved sustainably.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001820#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the optimistic scenario, Rwanda is assumed to modernize 40% of its farmland by 2050 through increased mechanization, fertilizer use, and irrigation, while expanding agricultural lands into marshlands by 100,000 ha.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001820#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The optimistic energy scenario assumes universal electricity access by 2030 and a significant shift in cooking fuels, with LPG reaching 50% share in urban areas and 20% in rural areas by 2050, supported by a cookstoves replacement programme and a 30% increase in forest cover.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001820#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The pessimistic scenario envisions a future where biomass remains the primary cooking fuel due to the continued use of traditional cookstoves by a growing population, leading to increased pressure on forests and marshlands and the degradation of limnic ecosystems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001820#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The modeling incorporates climate sub-scenarios that assume future changes including a temperature increase of +3°C, precipitation variations of +/-10%, and a dew point temperature increase of +1°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001820#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To ensure sustainable biomass withdrawal in the optimistic scenario, the model assumes that 20% of net primary productivity in forest biomass and 20% of crop residues are left in the ecosystems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001820#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","climate resilience","biomass","hydropower","land-use change","deforestation","biogas"],"geography_discussed":["Akagera Basin","Kigali"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modeling","participatory scenario-building"]}]}