{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["multinomial logit analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'multinomial logit analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=multinomial+logit+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001863","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001863","title":"Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1820\u00102008","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2012-06-29","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/be01efb7-6893-46b8-ab25-aa2e8c2037f8/WhyWaves_2012.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The authors find substantial support for the existence of democratic waves, arguing that they are driven by a combination of economic development, democratic diffusion from neighboring countries, the 'stickiness' of consistent institutional configurations, and systemic shocks such as world wars and the creation of new states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study confirms the existence of democratic waves and reverse waves, finding that political transitions tend to cluster in space and time. The data identifies a long democratic wave from the 19th century to approximately 1920, a second wave from 1940 to 1955, and a third wave starting post-1975 that continued through 2008.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic development has a non-monotonic relationship with regime change. Transitions toward autocracy are most likely at income levels around Int$ 500, while democratizations are most likely around Int$ 4,000. Additionally, economic growth is found to reduce the probability of transitions in either direction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Democratic diffusion occurs when a country's political system is influenced by its neighborhood and the global context. Countries are more likely to experience a transition toward democracy if their neighborhood or the world is more democratic than they are.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Institutional 'stickiness' significantly affects stability; regimes that are 'consistent' (either fully autocratic or fully democratic) are more stable than 'inconsistent' regimes. Inconsistent regimes are more prone to political transitions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Systemic shocks, including interstate wars, alliance shifts, and the creation of new states, contribute to the crests and troughs of democratic waves. While systemic wars and state creation are associated with an increased likelihood of autocratization in the short term, new states tend to be more democratic than old states with similar characteristics upon their creation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that the 'fragile nature' of political institutions in newly created states often leads to subsequent reverse waves of democratization as these states encounter economic or security problems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Middle East","North Africa","Latin America","Rwanda","Georgia","Tunisia","Egypt","Libya","Niger","South Korea","Israel","North Korea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["multinomial logit analysis","OLS regression","longitudinal study"]}]}