{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["modelling"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":54,"relation":"eq"},"page":2,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=modelling&page=2","next":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=modelling&page=3","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-000376","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000376","title":"health and environment impacts of food consumption","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2021-07-06","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/health-and-environment-impacts-of-food-consumption/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document introduces a new integrated modelling framework to assess the simultaneous impacts of agricultural systems on climate change and human health. Using data from 2014–2018, the model estimates global emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, and ammonia, while quantifying deaths associated with dietary risks, malnutrition, obesity, and air pollution. The results are consistent with previous independent studies, suggesting the model can be used to evaluate agricultural strategies that balance food demand with the minimization of health and climate impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000376#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2018, the model estimated global methane emissions at 129 million metric tons and nitrous oxide emissions at 4.4 million metric tons, while agricultural systems emitted 44 million tons of ammonia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000376#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The model estimated significant global health burdens: 4.1 million deaths from dietary health risks, 6 million from obesity, and 730,000 infant deaths from malnutrition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000376#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural air pollutant emissions were linked to 537,000 premature deaths caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and 184,000 premature deaths resulting from methane-induced ground-level ozone.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000376#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","methane","nitrous oxide","air pollution"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling"]},{"id":"fftreaty-000056","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/fftreaty-000056","title":"FOSSIL FUEL EXIT STRATEGY","publisher":{"name":"Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative","organization":"fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-06","source_url":"https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Exit-Strategy-An-orderly-wind-down-of-coal-oil-and-gas-to-meet-the-Paris-Agreement.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that stopping the expansion of fossil fuels is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement; instead, an active wind-down of existing production is required. It proposes specific annual decline rates for coal (9.5%), oil (8.5%), and gas (3.5%) between 2021 and 2030. The authors conclude that this transition is technically feasible because global solar and wind potential could meet primary energy demand more than 50 times over, ensuring 100% energy access without risking energy security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Stopping the expansion of fossil fuel extraction is insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as emissions from existing projects alone would cause a significant overshoot. Under a 'no expansion' scenario, emissions are projected to be 22% too high in 2025 and 66% too high by 2030 compared to a 1.5°C target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To align with a 1.5°C trajectory, global fossil fuel production must decline by specific average annual rates between 2021 and 2030: 9.5% for coal, 8.5% for oil, and 3.5% for gas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global renewable energy potential is vastly greater than current energy demands. Conservative estimates accounting for land constraints and environmental safeguards indicate that solar and wind energy alone could meet primary energy demand more than 50 times over.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A transition to 100% renewable energy is feasible without compromising energy security or access. While total primary energy demand is projected to fall by 27% by 2050 due to efficiency and electrification, electricity demand is expected to increase by 287% under the 1.5°C scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"All global regions, including major fossil fuel producers in North America, Asia, and the Middle East, possess sufficient renewable energy potential to meet their own energy needs. Africa is identified as the region with the greatest renewable energy potential.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current industry expansion plans are inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. If all planned new coal, gas, and oil production were implemented, energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 would exceed the 1.5°C target by 120%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed 1.5°C pathway differs from the IEA Net Zero scenario by excluding unproven or high-risk technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACS), relying instead on existing renewable technologies and energy efficiency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fftreaty-000056#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil-fuel phase-out","renewable energy","photovoltaics","wind power","energy efficiency","electrification","carbon budget","stranded asset","energy access","climate justice","bioenergy","methane emissions","bio-energy with carbon capture and storage"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States","India","Australia","Africa","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling","scenario analysis","spatial mapping"]},{"id":"newclim-000194","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000194","title":"CDM supply potential for emission reductions up to the end of 2020","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-11-25","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/cdm-supply-potential-for-emission-reductions-up-to-the-end-of-2020","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the potential volume of CERs eligible for transition to NDCs based on different restriction criteria. It finds that the total supply potential for reductions in or after 2013 exceeds 4 billion CERs without restrictions, but this figure drops significantly depending on whether registration dates or crediting period start dates are used as cut-offs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000194#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Without any restrictions, the supply potential for CERs for emission reductions occurring in or after 2013 is more than 4 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000194#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"When restrictions are applied based on registration dates, the cumulative supply potential for projects registered from the start of 2013 is estimated between 320 and 341 million CERs, with 46 to 63 million CERs coming from projects registered from the start of 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000194#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Restrictions based on the start of the first crediting period result in a higher volume of eligible CERs than registration-based restrictions; for activities starting their first crediting period from the beginning of 2013, the supply is approximately 1,443 to 1,483 million CERs, with 140 to 179 million CERs from those starting in or after 2016.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000194#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["clean development mechanism","Nationally Determined Contributions","Kyoto Protocol"],"geography_discussed":["Japan","Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000552","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000552","title":"Impacts of land use, population and climate change on global food security","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-11-12","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/impacts-of-land-use-population-and-climate-change-on-global-food-security/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research evaluates future food security using the FEEDME model, incorporating IPCC climate scenarios and Shared Socio-economic Pathways. The findings suggest that while climate change affects crop yields, population growth is the primary driver of undernourishment prevalence, with rapid population growth correlating with the worst food security outcomes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000552#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Population growth is identified as the primary driver of changes in undernourishment prevalence, exerting a larger impact on future food insecurity than climate change scenarios, despite the latter's effect on crop yields.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000552#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a direct correlation between population growth rates and food security levels, where countries with rapid growth experience the most severe impacts and those with decreasing growth show higher security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000552#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To prevent severe future food insecurity, the paper recommends strategies to mitigate population growth impacts, such as improving maternal health care, increasing national food access equality, closing the yield gap, and altering trade patterns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000552#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food security","climate variability","land-use change","crop yield"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000670","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000670","title":"LEAP-IBC Bangladesh","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-10-05","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/leap-ibc-bangladesh/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document introduces the LEAP-IBC tool, which quantifies the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) on public health and air quality. Applying this framework to Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs, the study finds that full implementation by 2030 would significantly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon, and PM2.5, leading to a decrease in ambient PM2.5 concentrations and the avoidance of approximately 112,000 premature deaths.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000670#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The LEAP-IBC modelling framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and air pollutants to quantify population-weighted annual average ambient PM2.5 concentrations, household PM2.5 exposure, and radiative forcing, which are then used to estimate premature mortality and global average temperature changes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000670#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Full implementation of Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National SLCP Plan by 2030, compared to a baseline scenario, would reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 25%, methane by 34%, black carbon by 46%, and primary PM2.5 by 45%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000670#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of these strategies in Bangladesh could reduce population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations by 18% in 2030 and prevent approximately 12,000 premature deaths from ambient PM2.5 exposure and 100,000 premature deaths from household PM2.5 exposure in the same year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000670#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","air quality","climate change mitigation","public health","Nationally Determined Contributions","carbon dioxide","methane"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000384","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000384","title":"Future cropland expansion, biodiversity and carbon storage modelling","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-01-27","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/future-cropland-expansion-biodiversity-and-carbon-storage-modelling/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study compares three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM, and PLUMv2) to evaluate the impact of cropland expansion on biodiversity and carbon storage. It finds substantial variation between the nine projections, with the choice of model explaining a greater proportion of the variance than the scenario used. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the highest impacts on carbon and biodiversity, while SSP1 projects the lowest, though still significant, impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000384#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is significant variation and little overlap across the nine projections resulting from the combination of three socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) and three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM, and PLUMv2).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000384#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The IMAGE and GLOBIOM models project the most severe impacts on biodiversity metrics and carbon storage, driven by the location and extent of cropland expansion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000384#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The choice of model has a larger influence on the variance of biodiversity and carbon metrics than the socio-economic scenario, highlighting a need for improved accuracy in land-based models.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000384#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["land-use change","biodiversity loss","carbon capture and storage"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["comparative analysis","modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000613","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000613","title":"Assessment of the impact of climate change and mining activities on streamflow and selected metals loading in the Chindwin River, Myanmar","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2019-11-19","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/assessment-of-the-impact-of-climate-change-and-mining-activities-on-streamflow-and-selected-metals-loading-in-the-chindwin-river-myanmar/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study models the impact of climate change and mining on the Chindwin River, finding that future climate scenarios are likely to reduce streamflow and associated metal loading, while identifying specific river segments with the highest concentrations of arsenic, mercury, and iron.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000613#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change is projected to reduce future discharges at most monitoring stations by 3.4% to 36.5%, although the Mokekalae station is expected to see an increase of 1.3% to 9.4%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000613#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Projected heavy metal loading under future climate conditions is expected to follow a decreasing pattern, mirroring the projected discharge patterns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000613#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Specific river segments exhibit high metal loads: the area between Naung Po Aung and Uru downstream has the highest loads of arsenic and mercury, while the area between Uru downstream and Mokekalae has the highest iron loads.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000613#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","hydrology","water quality","mining"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling","projection"]},{"id":"iisd-000543","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000543","title":"Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform: Greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2019-07-07","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/raising-ambition-through-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper finds that removing fossil fuel subsidies across 26 modeled countries leads to an average 6% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which increases to 13.2% if combined with a 10% energy tax and reinvestment in renewables and energy efficiency. Globally, the removal of these subsidies is estimated to reduce emissions by 6.4% to 8.2% by 2050. The study highlights that governments save an average of USD 93 for every tonne of CO2e removed through subsidy reform, with total cumulative fiscal savings across the 26 countries reaching USD 2.56 trillion by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000543#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Removing fossil fuel subsidies across 26 modeled countries results in a simple national average of 6% greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions from 2018 to 2025 compared to business as usual.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000543#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The average GHG emission reduction increases to 13.2% by 2030 if the reform includes a 10% energy tax from 2025 to 2030 and a shift of 30% of savings and revenues into renewable energy and energy efficiency investments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000543#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) across the 26 analyzed countries is projected to generate USD 2.56 trillion in cumulative fiscal savings and abate 4.8 GtCO2e of cumulative GHG emissions by 2030, with an average government saving of USD 93 per tonne of CO2e removed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000543#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A review of 60 research papers indicates that global GHG emission reductions from fossil fuel subsidy removal range between 1% and 10% by 2030 and between 6.4% and 8.2% by 2050, though combining subsidy removal with appropriate taxation could reduce global emissions by 28%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000543#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Governments are encouraged to integrate the co-benefits of GHG emission reductions from fossil fuel subsidy reform and taxation into second-generation Nationally Determined Contributions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000543#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel subsidy","greenhouse gas emissions","carbon price","carbon tax","renewable energy","energy efficiency","Nationally Determined Contributions"],"geography_discussed":["World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling","literature review"]},{"id":"iisd-003384","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003384","title":"Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2019-06","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/raising-ambition-through-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"This research paper assesses the impact of removing consumer fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 across 26 countries, finding a simple average GHG emission reduction of 6% by 2030 compared to business as usual. The study argues that while FFSR alone is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, combining it with a 10% energy tax and reallocating 30% of savings into renewable energy and energy efficiency could increase average reductions to 13.2% by 2030. It highlights that FFSR is a cost-effective tool, saving governments an average of USD 93 per tonne of CO2e removed. The paper also reviews the regressive nature of fuel subsidies and advocates for 'subsidy swaps' toward sustainable energy and social safety nets, noting that only 8% of current NDCs explicitly include FFSR.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The removal of consumer fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 across 26 modelled countries results in a simple average GHG emission reduction of 6% from 2018 until 2025 compared to business as usual.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Combining fossil fuel subsidy reform with a 10% energy tax (from 2025 to 2030) and reallocating 30% of the resulting savings and revenues into renewable energy and energy efficiency investments increases average GHG emission reductions to 13.2% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuel subsidy reform is a fiscally beneficial mitigation tool, with governments saving an average of USD 93 for every tonne of CO2e removed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Cumulative fiscal savings from fossil fuel subsidy reform alone across the 26 analyzed countries total USD 2.56 trillion by 2030, with 4.8 Gt of CO2e abated.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Countries with the highest relative subsidies as a share of GDP, such as Venezuela, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and the UAE, see the highest percentage of emission reductions (averaging above 20% by 2030).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In high-consumption and high-carbon intensity countries like China, the US, and India, a subsequent energy tax and investment in energy efficiency provide larger absolute emission reductions than subsidy removal alone.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuel subsidies are socially regressive; for example, IMF research on 35 countries shows the top income quintile receives more than six times the subsidies of the bottom quintile.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Only 8% of current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) specifically include fossil fuel subsidy reform as an action for GHG mitigation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global studies indicate that removing fossil fuel subsidies and applying appropriate taxation could reduce global emissions by 28%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Producer subsidies are consistently underreported and often determine the viability of new fossil fuel projects; for instance, in the US, tax reductions were decisive for up to half of all new oil fields at USD 50 per barrel.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003384#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","carbon price","Nationally Determined Contributions","renewable energy","energy efficiency","carbon tax","energy transition","Paris Agreement"],"geography_discussed":["Algeria","Bangladesh","Brazil","People's Republic of China","Egypt","Germany","Ghana","India","Indonesia","Iran","Iraq","Mexico","Morocco","Myanmar","Nigeria","Pakistan","Russia","Saudi Arabia","South Africa","Sri Lanka","Tunisia","United Arab Emirates","United States","Venezuela","Vietnam","Zambia","British Columbia","Saskatchewan","Sweden","Denmark","Finland","Norway","Netherlands","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling","literature review","policy analysis"]},{"id":"sei-000842","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000842","title":"Modelling crop yield ozone","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2019-04-01","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/modelling-crop-yield-ozone/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study finds that accelerated leaf senescence is the primary mechanism by which ozone pollution reduces crop yield, rather than direct impairment of photosynthesis in un-senesced leaves. It concludes that the Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), based on stomatal O3 flux, is a more accurate predictor of physiological response than 24-hour mean concentrations or AOT40.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000842#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Accelerated leaf senescence is identified as the primary driver of ozone-induced yield loss in most agricultural settings, as negative effects on photosynthesis were only observed in conjunction with O3-induced senescence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000842#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), which simulates stomatal O3 flux using a multiplicative stomatal conductance model, outperformed both 24-hour mean concentrations and AOT40 (accumulated O3 exceeding 40 ppb during daylight hours) in predicting physiological responses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000842#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Experimental results from 2015 and 2016 involving two wheat cultivars showed that leaf senescence occurred earlier as average POD increased, though the two cultivars exhibited significantly different responses to this senescence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000842#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["crop yield"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["experimental","modelling"]},{"id":"catf-000571","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000571","title":"Alberta’s methane regulations will fail to meet provincial reduction target","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2018-12-13","source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/21093843/background-alberta-methane-regulations.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that Alberta's proposed methane regulations are weaker than federal rules and will fail to meet the province's 2014 pledge to reduce oil and gas emissions by 45% by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000571#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Modelling by the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) indicates that the Alberta Energy Regulator's (AER) Draft Directive 060 would reduce 2025 emissions by 23% (22 million metric tons of CO2e) relative to a baseline, whereas Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) rules would achieve a 36% reduction (34 million metric tons of CO2e).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000571#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Alberta's proposed rules are projected to result in a 36% reduction in methane levels relative to 2014 levels, falling short of the province's 2014 pledge to reduce oil and gas emissions by 45% by 2025. In contrast, ECCC rules are projected to achieve a 47% reduction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000571#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Alberta regulations are identified as weaker than ECCC rules because they allow more gas venting, lack frequent inspection requirements for most sites, and do not require operators to accurately report methane pollution levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000571#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Carbon pricing in Alberta is deemed an uncertain method for methane reduction due to poor reporting and a significant pricing discrepancy where vented methane is effectively priced at $2 per tonne CO2e instead of $50.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000571#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["methane emissions","carbon price"],"geography_discussed":["Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["comparative assessment","modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000385","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000385","title":"Transport electrification effect of recent battery cost reduction and future emission scenarios","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018-09-11","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/transport-electrification-effect-recent-battery-cost-reduction-future-emission-scenarios/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research examines the sensitivity of electric vehicle (EV) adoption to battery costs, finding that EVs only achieve a significant global market share of 15% or more when battery costs drop to 100 $/kWh or less. While battery costs have fallen faster than previously estimated, the transport sector remains a more challenging area for greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to other sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000385#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Electric vehicles only achieve a significant global market share of 15% or more within the study's model framework when battery costs reach 100 $/kWh or less, indicating that the effectiveness of policy incentives is heavily dependent on these battery floor costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000385#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Battery costs for electric vehicles have decreased more rapidly than previous empirical literature had estimated, leading to adjustments in future cost projections and highlighting the uncertainty of cost development for the low-carbon transport transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000385#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Integrated assessment models indicate that reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector is more difficult than in other sectors, although the transition to electric vehicles could substantially lower passenger road-transport emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000385#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["electric vehicle","greenhouse gas emissions","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["sensitivity analysis","modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000794","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000794","title":"Closing the global ozone yield gap: quantification, co-benefits and multi-stress tolerance","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018-08-07","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/closing-global-ozone-yield-gap-quantification-cobenefits-multistress-tolerance/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study estimates that tropospheric ozone significantly reduces global yields for soybean, wheat, rice, and maize, with the highest losses occurring in regions already stressed by pests, heat, and nutrient deficiencies. It advocates for integrating ozone tolerance into crop breeding programmes and altering management approaches to close the 'ozone yield gap'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000794#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Tropospheric ozone (based on 2010–2012 means) causes significant annual global yield reductions across four major crops, totaling 227 Tg of lost yield. The impact varies by crop, with soybean being the most sensitive and maize the least.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000794#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The highest ozone-induced production losses are geographically concentrated: soybean losses are highest in North and South America; wheat in India and China; rice in parts of India, Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia; and maize in China and the United States.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000794#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regions suffering high ozone-induced crop losses frequently overlap with areas vulnerable to other abiotic and biotic stresses, including heat stress, pests, diseases, aridity, and nutrient stress.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000794#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["crop yield","food security"],"geography_discussed":["North America","South America","India","People's Republic of China","Bangladesh","Indonesia","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","modelling"]},{"id":"newclim-000146","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000146","title":"Short-term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018-07-10","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/short-term-policies-to-keep-the-door-open-for-paris-climate-goals","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study argues that current national climate plans are insufficient and would necessitate disruptive changes after 2030. By implementing a global roll-out of regional regulatory policies across energy, transport, buildings, industry, and land use, global CO2 emissions could be reduced by an additional 10 GtCO2eq by 2030. While these policies are less disruptive than immediate global carbon pricing, they result in higher economic impacts, suggesting they should complement rather than replace carbon pricing to achieve the Paris goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000146#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current national climate policy plans under the Paris Agreement are insufficient, leading to higher emissions by 2030 than cost-effective pathways would require, which would subsequently necessitate disruptive changes and risky mitigation measures after 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000146#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A global roll-out of regional regulatory policies in energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, and land use, combined with moderate carbon pricing, could lower global CO2 emissions by an additional 10 GtCO2eq in 2030 compared to current plans, aligning emissions with 1.5°C and 'well below 2°C' scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000146#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While a portfolio of regulatory policies is less disruptive than immediate global carbon pricing, it causes higher economic impacts; therefore, these policies should be used as complements to carbon pricing rather than alternatives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000146#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Paris Agreement","carbon price","transportation","building","land use"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling"]},{"id":"sei-002281","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002281","title":"Examining poverty and equality in water resources planning","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018-07","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/examining-poverty-and-equality-in-water-resources-planning.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper demonstrates the application of Sida's Multidimensional Poverty Analysis (MDPA) framework within the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) tool to identify inequalities in water access and land distribution in Colombia's Campoalegre Watershed. Findings reveal significant data gaps for rural areas, infrastructure capacity shortages in urban centres, and a strong correlation between small landholdings (microfundios) and an inability to meet basic food needs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002281#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study identifies a significant information gap between urban and rural areas; for 28% of all demand nodes in the model, water coverage could not be estimated due to a lack of data, primarily affecting livestock, agriculture, and rural residents near headwaters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002281#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Urban water infrastructure in the Campoalegre watershed is insufficient for growing demands; three of the four main urban centres (Empocabal, Empocaldas, and Empumar) have water coverage of less than 85%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002281#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Land distribution in the Campoalegre Basin is highly unequal, with 57% of rural families living on microfundios of 3 hectares or less, which collectively account for less than 8% of the total land area.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002281#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a direct link between small land ownership and extreme poverty; estimated net income for coffee producers with farms between 3 and 10 hectares is below the cost of a family food basket, meaning 82% of rural families in the watershed lack sufficient resources for food.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002281#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The high number of small-scale farms (4,296 land owners) creates a governance challenge, making it impractical for environmental authorities like CORPOCALDAS and CARDER to regularly inspect sites for water use and wastewater management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002281#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","water distribution system","Integrated Water Resources Management"],"geography_discussed":["Caldas Department","Risaralda Department"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","modelling"]},{"id":"iisd-002604","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002604","title":"The Potential for Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Sequestration in Agro-Manitoba","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2017-12","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/carbon-dioxide-equivalent-sequestration-agro-manitoba.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report estimates that Agro-Manitoba has the potential to sequester between 1.3 and 3 megatonnes of CO2e per year. It evaluates six practices: wetlands, forestry, riparian buffers, minimum tillage, perennials, and cover crops, using both a maximum one-year snapshot and a 30-year cumulative approach. The analysis highlights that while cover crops and wetlands offer the highest sequestration potential, forestry and riparian buffers provide significant rates despite smaller land areas. The findings are aligned with the province's Growing Outcomes in Watersheds (GROW) program, suggesting a strong policy basis for incentivizing these practices to offset emissions from Manitoba's agricultural sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The total annual CO2e sequestration potential for Agro-Manitoba is estimated to range from 1,334,636 tCO2e (low scenario) to 1,707,978 tCO2e (high scenario) when averaged over 30 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under a maximum one-year approach, the total sequestration potential ranges from 2,441,825 to 3,072,825 tCO2e, with cover crops and wetlands identified as having the highest potential.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Wetlands offer a maximum one-year sequestration rate of 975,000 tCO2e based on an assumed addition of 300,000 hectares, though they risk becoming a carbon source if loss rates exceed restoration rates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Forestry and riparian buffers combined provide a significant sequestration potential of 493,140 tCO2e under the maximum one-year approach, despite covering a relatively small additional area of 75,000 hectares.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perennial crops have a higher sequestration rate than minimum tillage and cover crops, providing a maximum one-year sequestration rate of 203,685 tCO2e.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Minimum tillage, while having a large adoption area of 1 million hectares, has a lower practice sequestration rate of 0.30 tCO2e/ha/year, resulting in a maximum one-year rate of 300,000 tCO2e.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analyzed land use practices strongly align with the priority beneficial management practices (BMPs) of Manitoba's Growing Outcomes in Watersheds (GROW) program, which aims for enhanced carbon storage and improved climate resiliency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002604#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon sequestration","greenhouse gas emissions","afforestation","reforestation","land use"],"geography_discussed":["Canada","Alberta"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000183","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000183","title":"The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2017-01-10","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/the-effect-of-forest-owner-decision-making-climatic-change-and-societal-demands-on-land-use-change-and-ecosystem-service-provision-in-sweden/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document presents the CRAFTY-Sweden model, which simulates future land use and ecosystem services in Sweden. Findings suggest that socio-economic changes and owner behavior have a greater influence on land-use change than climatic effects on productivity. The model predicts an increase in timber harvesting and a decoupling between the supply and demand of forest ecosystem services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000183#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Socio-economic changes and differences in land owner behavior are more influential in determining land-use change and its impact than the effects of climate change on land productivities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000183#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Simulations predict a significant rise in timber harvesting in the coming decades, alongside a substantial gap between the supply and demand for forest ecosystem services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000183#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["ecosystem service","forestry","land-use change","climate change"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["simulation","modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000023","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000023","title":"Modeling Andean Páramo","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2016-03-10","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/modeling-andean-paramo/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study developed a WEAP system model for the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed in Peru's Piura region to address the lack of understanding regarding hydrological processes in tropical páramo wetlands. By simulating various scenarios based on stakeholder input, the model assesses river headflow, reservoir levels, and downstream water demand. The findings indicate that while climate variables like temperature and precipitation influence water production, land use changes are expected to be the primary driver of hydrological responses in the páramo and their subsequent downstream effects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000023#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study utilized a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model to simulate the effects of temperature, precipitation, and land use changes on river headflow production, reservoir water levels, and downstream demand coverage in the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000023#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Model results suggest that land use changes will be the main factor driving hydrological responses in the páramo and resulting downstream changes, although temperature and precipitation also impact water production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000023#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","land use","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Andes"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["modelling"]},{"id":"sei-000540","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000540","title":"Re-assessment of CO2 and SO2 emissions in energy sector by using LEAP model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2015-01-12","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/re-assessment-of-co%e2%82%82-and-so%e2%82%82-emissions-in-energy-sector-by-using-leap-model-experiences-from-estonian-energy-sector-planning/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"This research paper describes a 2012 re-assessment of LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model results concerning CO2 and SO2 emissions within the Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Estonian National Energy Sector Development Plan until 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000540#summary","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2012, a re-assessment was conducted on the LEAP model results for CO2 and SO2 emissions as part of the Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Estonian National Energy Sector Development Plan until 2020 (Energy Plan 2020) to determine the extent to which results were achieved and the reasons for any deviations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000540#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},{"text":"The re-assessment process demonstrates the potential for policy learning and emphasizes the necessity of incorporating uncertainties that fall outside the scope of models into Impact Assessments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000540#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-08-17"}],"climate_tags":["co2 emissions","so2 emissions","energy policy","climate change mitigation","leap model"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["re-assessment","modelling"]},{"id":"bc3res-000154","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/bc3res-000154","title":"MODELLING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES TRADE-OFFS IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS","publisher":{"name":"Basque Centre for Climate Change","organization":"basque-centre-for-climate-change"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2015","source_url":"https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20150506035156184249414.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that agricultural management is overly driven by food production, leading to a decline in the ecosystems it depends on. It advocates for an ecosystem-based approach to food security and introduces semantic meta-modelling as a tool to integrate various models and quantify trade-offs between crop yields and regulating services like water quality and climate regulation. Using a case study in the Basque Country, the authors demonstrate that informed farming practices, such as adjusting manure application and reducing tillage, can significantly reduce emissions and nitrate leaching without necessarily compromising winter wheat yields.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"bc3res-000154#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global agricultural expansion is a primary driver of environmental change, contributing to 19%-29% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mainly through nitrous oxide and methane.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"bc3res-000154#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Since 1960, global water withdrawals from lakes and rivers have doubled, with nearly 70% of that water used for irrigation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"bc3res-000154#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study utilizes semantic meta-modelling to overcome traditional service-by-service modelling, allowing for an integrated assessment of trade-offs between crop production, water quality, air quality, and climate regulation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"bc3res-000154#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Llanada Alavesa case study, manure usage, soil type, and precipitation were identified as the most influential inputs affecting model outputs, with manure usage having a 62% normalized rate of influence on crop yield.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"bc3res-000154#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Simulations comparing historical data from 1997 and 2007 show that maximum manure usage combined with favorable environmental conditions increased wheat yield by 20% and estimated an emissions reduction of approximately 400-500 Kg CO2e/(ha*year).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"bc3res-000154#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transitioning from conventional tillage to limited or non-tillage farming can increase soil carbon sequestration and significantly reduce nitrate leaching concentration without causing significant reductions in winter wheat yield.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"bc3res-000154#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["ecosystem service","food security","greenhouse gas emissions","carbon sequestration","water quality","air quality"],"geography_discussed":["World","Spain"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","sensitivity analysis","modelling"]}]}