{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["model simulation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'model simulation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=model+simulation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"wwatt-000027","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwatt-000027","title":"European heat June 2017","publisher":{"name":"World Weather Attribution","organization":"world-weather-attribution"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2017-06-29","source_url":"https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-june-2017/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study concludes that anthropogenic climate change significantly increased the likelihood of the June 2017 heat event across Western Europe. Using observational data and multiple climate model ensembles, researchers found that such extreme heat is now more frequent, occurring every 10 to 30 years depending on the country. The risk ratio was highest in Portugal and Spain, where the probability of such heat increased by more than ten times due to global warming. The report also notes that under high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), temperatures similar to June 2017 could become normal by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000027#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Human-caused climate change significantly increased the probability of the June 2017 extreme heat, making it at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England, and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000027#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The June 2017 heat event is no longer a rare occurrence in the current climate, with return periods ranging from approximately 10 years in northern countries and Switzerland to around 20 years in France, Spain, and Portugal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000027#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Observational data indicates that the risk ratio (the change in likelihood of the event due to climate change) is particularly high in southern Europe, with Spain showing a risk ratio of 9000 and Portugal 2000 when comparing the 2017 climate to that of 1901.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000027#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate model projections suggest that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the temperatures observed in June 2017 will become normal and occur almost every year by 2100 for all analyzed regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000027#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The heat event was associated with severe secondary impacts, including a deadly forest fire in Portugal that killed at least 64 people and a major forest fire in Spain that displaced over 1,500 people.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000027#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a notable discrepancy between the risk ratios derived from observations and those from most climate models, particularly for maximum temperatures in Portugal and Spain, though the cause of this underestimation in models remains unknown.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwatt-000027#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["extreme heat","anthropogenic climate change","extreme event attribution","heat wave","forest fire","climate modeling"],"geography_discussed":["Europe","Italy"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["attribution study","observational analysis","model simulation"]},{"id":"sei-001059","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001059","title":"Modifying Agricultural Water Management to Adapt to Climate Change in California's Central Valley","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2011-12-30","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/modifying-agricultural-water-management-to-adapt-to-climate-change-in-californias-central-valley/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system to model how climate change and rising temperatures increase agricultural water demand, thereby reducing water supply reliability. It concludes that addressing these impacts requires fundamental changes to the operation of the water management system.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001059#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Model simulations indicate that rising temperatures under climate change will increase agricultural water demand, which will place further stress on the water system and lead to decreased water supply reliability for some users.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001059#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that current water management operations are insufficient to handle climate change impacts and that fundamental operational changes are necessary for effective adaptation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001059#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["model simulation"]}]}