{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":14,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=macroeconomic+modelling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iisd-001630","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001630","title":"Budgeting for Net Zero","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-12","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-01/india-budgeting-for-net-zero-technical-note.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document provides a technical framework for calculating the 'cost gap'—the marginal cost differential between clean energy technologies and their conventional benchmarks—for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), offshore wind, solar PV, electric vehicles (EVs), and green hydrogen in India. It outlines the specific input parameters, learning rates, and benchmarks used for each technology. Furthermore, it describes the application of the Green Economy Model (GEM), a system dynamics tool, to simulate how varying levels of public funding (e.g., 30% or 100% of the cost gap) influence India's GDP, employment, and emissions through feedback loops involving energy spending, air pollution, and labor productivity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001630#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"For standalone Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), the study identifies that cost parity with the benchmark electricity price (INR 7.30/kWh in 2023) is achieved in 2028 under the business-as-usual scenario, leading to a cost gap estimation period from 2023 to 2027.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001630#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Offshore wind technology in India is projected to reach cost parity with its benchmark (the average price of round-the-clock electricity traded on the Indian Energy Exchange, which was INR 5.62/kWh in 2023) in 2037, with the cost gap calculated for the period 2024 to 2037.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001630#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Solar PV is already cheaper than new coal and gas installations in India; therefore, the cost gap is calculated as the differential between domestically manufactured solar PV modules and imported modules, with parity expected around 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001630#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green hydrogen (GH2) is estimated not to reach cost parity with grey hydrogen (benchmarked at USD 2.25/kg) until 2050 in the business-as-usual scenario, necessitating a cost gap estimation timeline from 2024 to 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001630#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Green Economy Model (GEM) uses a system dynamics approach to quantify how government support for clean energy affects GDP by analyzing three primary drivers: energy spending (affecting capital productivity), air pollution (affecting labor productivity), and employment (affecting value added).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001630#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["battery energy storage system","offshore wind power","photovoltaics","electric vehicle","green hydrogen","Levelized cost of energy","total cost of ownership","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Tamil Nadu","Gujarat"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["methodological","macroeconomic modelling","cost-benefit analysis"]},{"id":"iejza-000376","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000376","title":"Fiscal pathways to a universal basic income grant, and their impacts on poverty, inequality and the wider economy","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2024-02","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-policybrief-UBIGpathways-jan2024.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates low-, medium-, and high-ambition scenarios for transitioning South Africa's Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant into a more permanent basic income grant (BIG). Using the DIMMSIM model, the research finds that such grants are fiscally sustainable when funded through progressive taxation and lead to significant reductions in poverty and unemployment while boosting GDP growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The modelling indicates that implementing a BIG is fiscally sustainable and generates positive outcomes for economic growth, poverty reduction, and unemployment across all three tested scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed BIG pathways could reduce the national poverty rate by up to two-thirds within eight years. Specifically, the low-, medium-, and high-ambition scenarios are projected to lower the national poverty rate by 7.3, 33.5, and 39.2 percentage points respectively by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A BIG is projected to stimulate GDP growth, increasing it from a business-as-usual baseline of 2.2% to between 2.8% and 3.5% by 2030, depending on the ambition level of the pathway.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of a BIG is expected to modestly reduce the unemployment rate, with the high-ambition scenario projecting a decrease from a 32.1% baseline to 27.2%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The grant's impact on inequality is significant, though more muted than its impact on poverty. The Gini-Coefficient is projected to decline from 68.1% in 2022 to between 55.1% and 57.7% by 2030 across the three scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net cost of the BIG is significantly lower than the gross cost because increased consumption stimulated by the grant generates additional VAT revenue for the government. Net costs are estimated to be 29% to 50% lower than gross costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed funding mechanisms for the BIG include a combination of a wealth tax, a social security tax (SST), and recouped VAT revenue. The high-ambition scenario specifically includes a wealth tax of 1% and an SST at 4% of wages up to a taxable maximum of R2.5 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["social protection","poverty reduction","fiscal policy","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling","fiscal impact assessment"]},{"id":"iejza-000404","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000404","title":"CAN BASIC INCOME CONTRIBUTE TO INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA?","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2023-08","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IEJ-Working-Paper-Series-No.-8-Basic-Income-Inclusive-Development-SA.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document reviews seven major proposals for basic income in South Africa, including those from the ANC, the Department of Social Development, and the Institute for Economic Justice. It argues that while there is a strong consensus on the need to close the social protection gap for adults aged 18-59, the specific design, financing, and implementation of such a system will determine whether it achieves progressive outcomes or reinforces austerity. The authors advocate for an unconditional grant linked to national poverty lines, funded through progressive taxation, and complemented by universal public services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa faces a critical gap in social protection for working-age adults, with over half the population living below the Upper-Bound Poverty Line (UBPL) and approximately one quarter below the Food Poverty Line (FPL).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Covid-19 Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, providing R350 per month, served as a vital temporary measure that mitigated hunger and stimulated local economies, but it is plagued by high barriers to access.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a broad consensus among reviewed proposals that basic income should target adults aged 18-59, be pegged to national poverty lines, and be implemented through a process of progressive improvement in value and coverage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African National Congress (ANC) officially supports a universal Basic Income Grant (BIG) that is unconditional, indexed to the FPL and eventually the UBPL, with financing potentially including a wealth tax.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) proposes a 'high ambition pathway' by 2030 featuring a grant at the UBPL value and a means-test of six times the UBPL, projecting a 61% reduction in the poverty rate and 3.5% GDP growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Social Policy Initiative (SPI) suggests a three-year implementation to reach the UBPL by 2025/26, arguing that the grant should be financed by increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2.4 to 3.1 percentage points rather than new taxes to maximize economic stimulus.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Orkin et al. recommend immediate improvements to the SRD grant, such as raising the means-test threshold to R1335 and removing the Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) registration criterion to reduce exclusion errors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that a basic income grant must be complemented by universal quality public services and strong labour protections to avoid becoming a subsidy for employers or a replacement for essential state provisioning.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There are concerns that government officials may attempt to implement basic income through regressive means, such as household-level grants or by cutting other social spending, which would disadvantage women and the most vulnerable.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000404#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["social protection","poverty reduction","just transition"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy review","comparative analysis","macroeconomic modelling"]},{"id":"wwfza-000116","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwfza-000116","title":"PLASTIC BANS AND PHASE-OUTS","publisher":{"name":"WWF South Africa","organization":"wwf-south-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023","source_url":"https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/web-wwf-plastic-phase-out-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study uses a dynamic input-output model to compare a business-as-usual baseline against two scenarios: an immediate ban (2024–2025) of four products and a phased withdrawal (2025–2030) of six others. Findings indicate that both interventions lead to positive economic outcomes, including real GDP and employment expansion, while reducing the costs of externalities. However, the transition would cause job losses in plastic production and a modest net increase in greenhouse gas emissions due to increased activity in substitute-producing sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study identifies 10 high-risk plastic products for restriction: four for immediate banning (plastic stirrers, straws, oxo-degradable additives, and microbeads in personal care products) and six for phase-out by 2030 (barrier bags, lollipop sticks, polystyrene fast-food containers, takeout food sachets, single-use plastic tableware, and plastic-stemmed cotton buds).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Both the ban and phase-out scenarios are projected to result in positive economic growth compared to the baseline. Real GDP is expected to increase by approximately 12% under the ban scenario and 14.5% under the phase-out scenario, compared to a baseline growth of 11.5%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing the bans and phase-outs would lead to significant cost savings regarding externalities. The projected total cost of maintaining the business-as-usual scenario until 2030 is R47.8 billion, whereas the ban and phase-out scenarios offer savings of R1.5 billion and R2.5 billion, respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Employment is expected to increase overall, but the impact varies by sector and skill level. While sectors like agriculture and mining would see job gains, the plastic products sector would face workforce reductions, with the phase-out scenario resulting in a loss of approximately 19,900 jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition may lead to a modest net increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While emissions would decrease in the plastic products sector, they would rise in mining and manufacturing due to the production of substitute goods, resulting in a cumulative increase of 0.37% for the ban and 0.58% for the phase-out scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Plastic pollution in South Africa has severe human health implications, particularly through the open burning of waste, which accounts for 56% of plastic leakage. This process releases persistent organic pollutants like dioxins and PCBs, contributing to respiratory and chronic diseases in marginalised communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report highlights the risk of 'greenwashing' and warns that simply replacing plastic with other single-use materials may not be environmentally superior. It emphasizes that a successful transition requires systemic changes, including refill and reuse models and behavioral change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000116#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["plastic pollution","circular economy","greenhouse gas emissions","waste management","sustainable consumption","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["Kenya"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["socio-economic impact assessment","macroeconomic modelling"]},{"id":"iisd-003584","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003584","title":"Achieving Sustainable Food Systems in a Global Crisis: ETHIOPIA","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-12","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-01/sustainable-food-systems-global-crisis-ethiopia.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Ethiopia is not on track to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, with poverty and hunger projected to remain high due to conflict in Tigray, climate change, and economic shocks. The report argues that a sustainable food system transformation is possible with an additional annual public investment of USD 4.6 billion from 2023 to 2030. This funding would target increasing agricultural productivity, transitioning to healthier diets, and enhancing climate resilience. A significant financing gap exists between short-term emergency food assistance and the long-term investments required for systemic resilience. Key recommendations include prioritizing on-farm interventions, scaling up sustainable livestock intensification to reduce GHG emissions, and integrating nutrition education with social protection programs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003584#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ethiopia is projected to fail in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, with poverty and hunger levels expected to be higher than current levels. Without additional investment, the poverty rate is projected to move from 24.1% in 2022 to 17.5% in 2030, and the hunger rate from 25.9% in 2022 to 22.2% in 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003584#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia requires an additional annual public investment of USD 4.6 billion from 2023 to 2030. This total includes USD 2.7 billion from external donors and USD 1.9 billion from domestic resources. This investment aims to end hunger, double the average incomes of 11.7 million small-scale producers, and transition 108 million people to healthier diets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003584#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food system","climate change","sustainable agriculture","greenhouse gas emissions","climate resilience","climate change adaptation","Nationally Determined Contributions","Post-harvest losses","food security","Climate-smart agriculture"],"geography_discussed":["Tigray Region","Somali Region","Afar Region","Addis Ababa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling","microeconomic analysis","policy assessment","cost-benefit analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-003585","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003585","title":"Achieving Sustainable Food Systems in a Global Crisis: MALAWI","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-09","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/sustainable-food-systems-global-crisis-malawi.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Malawi is not on track to meet its 2030 Sustainable Development Goals due to climate change, economic shocks, and high poverty. The report argues that an additional annual public investment of USD 543 million is required to end hunger, double smallholder incomes, and transition 14 million people to healthier diets while meeting climate commitments. Key priorities include on-farm investments in irrigation and livestock, nutrition education, and building climate resilience for vulnerable groups, particularly women.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Without additional investment and policy changes, Malawi's poverty and hunger rates are projected to increase by 2030, with poverty rising from 71% in 2019 to 72% and hunger increasing from 20% in 2020 to 25%. Over 90% of the population will still find healthy diets unaffordable.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current diets in Malawi are dominated by cereals, specifically maize used for nsima, and are deficient in fruits, vegetables, and animal-source foods. Low-income households have a higher dietary share of vegetables (18.7%) than wealthy households (10.6%), but wealthy households consume significantly more meat and animal products (23.7% vs 10.4%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Achieving a sustainable food system transformation by 2030 requires an additional annual public investment of USD 543 million. Of this, USD 472 million must come from external donors and USD 71 million from domestic resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant funding imbalance where official development assistance (ODA) for short-term emergency food assistance has increased, while long-term investment in agriculture and food security has stagnated.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"On-farm interventions are the highest priority for funding, requiring USD 364 million annually. Key focus areas include irrigation infrastructure, livestock productivity, and agroforestry to improve productivity and incomes for smallholders.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Livestock production is the primary driver of agricultural GHG emissions growth in Malawi. Current policies focus on breeding and veterinary services but lack focus on sustainable intensification, manure management, and small ruminants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is severely undermining food security, with maize yields potentially decreasing by 14%–25% by 2050 due to heat stress. The country is highly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reducing food loss and waste is identified as a highly effective but neglected strategy for improving food security and nutrition, with very limited coverage in current government policies or donor projects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Malawi lacks national food-based dietary guidelines, which are necessary to set country-led targets for transitioning to healthier diets and should be integrated into school feeding programs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003585#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["food system","climate change adaptation","climate change mitigation","greenhouse gas emissions","sustainable agriculture","Climate-smart agriculture","agroforestry","Nationally Determined Contributions","food security","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","Nigeria","Salima District","Chikhwawa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","macroeconomic modelling","policy assessment","literature review"]},{"id":"wmbco-000257","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wmbco-000257","title":"CUTTING BILLS AND CREATING JOBS THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION","publisher":{"name":"We Mean Business Coalition","organization":"we-mean-business-coalition"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-06","source_url":"https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fullreport_EconomicOpportunitiesCleanEnergy.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the economic opportunities of transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050 across several major economies. It argues that public investment can drive innovation and growth through signalling, crowding-in private capital, and reducing unit costs. While fossil fuel-exporting nations like the US, Canada, and Indonesia may face long-term GDP losses as global demand for hydrocarbons falls, the report finds that most subject economies—including the EU, UK, India, Japan, and South Africa—experience net gains in GDP and employment. The transition is predicted to significantly reduce household expenditure on fossil fuels, improve public health by reducing pollution, and enhance energy security, particularly for the EU in the context of reducing dependence on Russian gas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Public investment drives the green transition through three primary mechanisms: signalling long-term commitment to economic actors, creating a 'crowding-in effect' that reduces risk and cost of capital for private investors, and using large-scale procurement to drive down unit costs through 'learning by doing'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition creates economic gains through two channels: direct increases in activity within green technology sectors (production, installation, and maintenance) and indirect gains from reduced energy costs for consumers, which increases disposable income and stimulates broader consumption.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economies that export fossil fuels face a structural trade-off; while they may see initial gains from green investment, they will eventually experience losses in output and employment as global demand for fossil fuels declines.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the United States, the transition is projected to result in mixed outcomes: GDP is estimated to be 1.9% higher than the baseline in 2025, but the economy may face losses by 2050, with discounted GDP losses between 2022 and 2036 estimated at 4.5 trillion USD (2020USD).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For the European Union, the green transition is viewed as a tool for both decarbonisation and energy security, specifically to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Modelling suggests that achieving a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 could increase GDP by 0.2-0.5% compared to a 'do-nothing' scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the United Kingdom, meeting the Sixth Carbon Budget through investments in renewables, hydrogen, and carbon capture is predicted to increase GDP by 2-3% above the baseline in the medium- and long-term, creating a net 300,000 additional jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Developing economies like India and South Africa are projected to see significant early economic boosts from the transition. India's GDP is modelled to be 9.9% above baseline in 2025, while South Africa's GDP is projected to be 6.4% above baseline in 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition is expected to drastically reduce household expenditure on fossil fuels across all modelled countries by 2050, though this is partially offset by increased spending on electricity due to the electrification of heating and transport.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Beyond macroeconomic metrics, the transition provides substantial non-economic benefits, including reduced premature deaths from improved air quality and enhanced quality of life through more efficient home heating and cooling.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wmbco-000257#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","carbon neutrality","renewable energy","energy efficiency","electric vehicle","carbon capture and storage","sustainable finance","energy security","green job","carbon price","emission trading","electrification","heat pump","offshore wind power","photovoltaics","reforestation","carbon sink"],"geography_discussed":["United States","European Union","Germany","United Kingdom","Canada","India","Indonesia","Japan","South Africa","Denmark","Russia","Ukraine"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling","policy assessment","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"wwfza-000046","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwfza-000046","title":"ECONOMIC CASE FOR A CIRCULAR PLASTICS ECONOMY IN AFRICA","publisher":{"name":"WWF South Africa","organization":"wwf-south-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022","source_url":"https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/economic_case_for_a_circular_plastics_economy_in_africa.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that transitioning to a circular plastics economy by 2050 will result in positive cumulative effects on GDP, employment, and consumer welfare in Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, and South Africa compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Using computational general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, the study finds that such a transition increases economic activity and reduces the costs of environmental externalities. For Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya, immediate implementation is recommended to maximize environmental gains and avoid sunk costs. For South Africa, an incremental shift is suggested to minimize short-term negative impacts on its more established plastics sector. The report emphasizes the need for national policy instruments—such as extended producer responsibility (EPR) and deposit return schemes—alongside regional coordination via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and a legally binding global treaty to combat plastic pollution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Transitioning to a circular plastics economy by 2050 is projected to increase real GDP across all three studied countries compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Côte d’Ivoire could see additional GDP growth of $1.1 billion, Kenya approximately $2.53 billion, and South Africa between $7.2 billion and $8.2 billion, depending on the implementation rate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition is expected to create a net increase in demand for both skilled and unskilled formal labour. While employment is projected to decline in primary plastics sectors, these losses are expected to be absorbed by growth in the secondary plastics and services sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant number of informal waste sector workers and their dependants stand to benefit from the transition. As of 2020, the report estimates there are 30,043 informal waste reclaimers in Côte d’Ivoire, 71,097 in Kenya, and 108,564 in South Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Immediate implementation of circular measures can avoid substantial costs associated with the externalities of the linear plastic packaging model by 2050: over $200 million for Côte d’Ivoire, over $425 million for Kenya, and over $475 million for South Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies distinct implementation paths based on national economic structures: Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya are suited for immediate implementation due to smaller or less developed plastics sectors, whereas South Africa may require an incremental shift to avoid short-term negative GDP impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional value chain localisation in Africa would benefit eastern and western African countries by 2050, as evidenced by projected shifts in the volume of imports and exports of primary and secondary plastic goods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends several national policy instruments to drive the transition, including mandatory Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes, Deposit Return Schemes (DRS), and the establishment of product standards and certifications to mandate circular design.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000046#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["circular economy","plastic pollution","waste management","greenhouse gas emissions","biodiversity loss","sustainable consumption","trade policy"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","European Union","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling","policy assessment","economic impact analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002658","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002658","title":"Circular Economy Proxy Measures: Indicators on job effects for a closed-loop economy","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-11","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-12/circular-economy-proxy-measures.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report investigates how transitioning to a closed-loop economy affects employment, concluding that circular economy proxy measures are generally more labour-intensive than fossil-fuel-related jobs and can decouple economic activity from greenhouse gas emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Material efficiency can create between 9 million and 25 million jobs worldwide through the profitability of innovative technologies, changes in labour productivity, and the import of foreign value added.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Europe, achieving a 70 per cent recycling target could result in 322,000 direct jobs, 160,900 indirect jobs, and 80,400 induced jobs, totaling 563,000 net new jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Industrial ecology acts as an enabler for the circular economy by creating industrial networks that reduce waste, though there is a noted gap in studies that quantify its specific job creation potential.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy efficiency is highly labour-intensive, particularly in manufacturing, engineering, and construction; ambitious programs in Europe could increase employment by 0.7 million to 4.2 million jobs by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Renewable energy technologies generally have higher labour intensity than fossil fuels, with an average potential of 0.65 jobs/GWh, which increases to 0.80 jobs/GWh when combined with energy efficiency, compared to 0.15 jobs/GWh for fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green procurement serves as an enabler of the circular economy by using government purchasing power to shift business models toward sustainability, supporting local job creation and decent working conditions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition to material efficiency may cause job losses in raw material extraction in non-OECD countries and BRICS nations, suggesting that 40 per cent of proceeds from developed countries should be reinvested into just transition policies in at-risk regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the United Kingdom, a 'Transformation' scenario for material efficiency could create 517,000 gross jobs and 102,000 net jobs, with the highest growth in elementary sectors like waste and recycling.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002658#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["circular economy","energy efficiency","renewable energy","green job","just transition","greenhouse gas emissions","Resource productivity","photovoltaics","wind power","bioenergy","hydropower"],"geography_discussed":["World","United Kingdom","Germany","United States","Canada","People's Republic of China","Brazil","India","Russia","South Africa","Mexico","Guatemala","South Korea","Denmark","Chile","Dominican Republic","Flemish Region"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["literature review","macroeconomic modelling","employment impact assessment"]},{"id":"sei-002695","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002695","title":"Shifting to a green economy: Lock-in, path dependence, and policy options","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2014-11","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-WP-2014-08-Brown-green-capital.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research paper examines the economic barriers to a green transition, specifically 'carbon lock-in' where existing high-emission infrastructure reinforces itself. Using a post-Keynesian 'brown-green capital' model, the author argues that a transition cannot be achieved through carbon pricing alone but requires sustained public investment and a dynamic policy mix. The paper finds that the macroeconomic impact of green investment depends on whether an economy is 'wage-led' or 'profit-led', and that investor uncertainty often leads to underinvestment in green capital even as it becomes more productive.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The macroeconomic effect of increasing green capital penetration depends on whether an economy is wage-led or profit-led. In a wage-led regime, rising green capital is stimulating in a brown capital-dominated economy but depressing in a green capital-dominated one.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Carbon lock-in creates a self-stabilizing effect for brown economies, meaning that a 'neutral' investor hedging against uncertainty is likely to underinvest in green capital, even at high levels of green capital penetration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A carbon price can serve a macroeconomic purpose beyond marginal emissions reductions by controlling inflationary pressures caused by public green capital investment in wage-led economies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A low-carbon transition cannot be achieved through price signals alone; it requires targeted public investment in infrastructure and complementary assets to induce private investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Path dependence implies that the sequence of investment matters; in a brown capital-dominated economy, there are private benefits to investing in brown capital first, which further hinders the shift to green capital.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For small open economies, the effect of a carbon price is ambiguous because it operates through both domestic profit channels and the balance of trade, making their performance dependent on the actions of trading partners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green capital is initially assumed to be more labour-intensive to operate than brown capital, which can lead to increased labour demand and potential inflation if the labour market is tight.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002695#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Carbon lock-in","green economy","carbon price","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Germany","People's Republic of China","United States","France","United Kingdom","Austria","Netherlands","India"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling","policy analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-001363","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001363","title":"Fossil Fuels – At What Cost?","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2010-11","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/ffs_awc_3canprovinces.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report estimates that the federal and provincial governments of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador provide over $2.8 billion in annual subsidies to the upstream oil sector. Using a definition based on the WTO's Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, the study identifies 63 subsidy programs, with development subsidies (reducing capital expenditures) comprising 59% of the total value. Alberta receives the largest share of support (73% of total subsidies), which exceeds its share of crude oil production (67%). Macroeconomic modelling suggests that these subsidies increase national oil production by approximately 5% and GHG emissions by 2% by 2020, while negatively impacting government balances in the federal government, Alberta, and Saskatchewan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Provincial and federal governments provide over $2.8 billion in annual subsidies to the oil sector in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, covering 97% of Canada's oil production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study identified 63 targeted subsidy programs: 18 in Alberta, 19 in Saskatchewan, nine in Newfoundland and Labrador, and 17 at the federal level.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Development subsidies, which encourage companies to bring new oil resources into production by reducing capital expenditures, account for 59% of total subsidies, valued at $1.68 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Federal subsidies total $1.38 billion, representing 49% of the total estimated subsidies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Alberta receives 73% of total federal and provincial subsidies, a proportion higher than its 67% share of crude oil production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The average subsidy as a share of production value across Canada is 5.2%, peaking at 5.7% in Alberta and reaching a low of 3.7% in Newfoundland and Labrador.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Saskatchewan, subsidies for new wells average $139,000 per well or $143 per m3 produced, representing approximately 27% of the estimated future production value.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Macroeconomic modelling indicates that subsidies increase national oil production by approximately 5% by 2020, with Alberta seeing a 6% increase and Newfoundland and Labrador a 0.3% increase.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Subsidies are projected to increase national GHG emissions by about 2% by 2020, with Alberta's provincial emissions increasing by approximately 5%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The oil sands disproportionately benefit from subsidies, with an estimated 6% to 7% increase in production and a 12% increase in emissions attributable to the support.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Government balances are negatively impacted by subsidies: the federal government's balance is lower by 1%, Alberta's by 5%, and Saskatchewan's by 4%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Subsidies contribute to a projected 14% national increase in the oil trade surplus (net exports).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001363#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel subsidy","greenhouse gas emissions","carbon capture and storage","oil sands","climate policy"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative","macroeconomic modelling"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000418","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000418","title":"DAMAGE CONTROL","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Executive-summary-damage-control.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that climate change acts as a significant drag on Canada's economy, reducing GDP growth, causing job losses, and increasing fiscal pressure on governments. It highlights a 'broken window fallacy' where spending on repairs masks deeper losses in household income and productive investment. The analysis indicates that Northern Canada and Alberta are particularly vulnerable, and that a combination of proactive adaptation and low global emissions could reduce total real GDP losses by 75%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Climate change is projected to cause substantial national income losses in Canada, starting at $25 billion in 2025 (representing 50% of projected GDP growth for that year) and rising to between $391 billion (low-emissions) and $865 billion (high-emissions) annually by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Labor productivity and workforce size will decline due to premature deaths and heat-induced productivity losses, with job losses potentially reaching 500,000 by mid-century and 2.9 million by the end of the century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Household income will decline more severely than topline GDP due to the 'broken window fallacy,' where resources are diverted to repair damaged assets rather than productive investments. By the end of the century in a median high-emissions scenario, GDP may fall by 12%, while household income falls by 18%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Low-income households will be disproportionately affected by affordability pressures; by the end of the century in a high-emissions scenario, they face income cuts of 23%, compared to 19% for the median income group.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Geographic and sectoral impacts vary, with Northern Canada and Alberta facing the most significant losses. Northern Canada's losses are primarily driven by permafrost thaw, with potential GDP losses reaching $26,060 per capita by the end of the century in a high-emissions scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change creates a fiscal risk for governments, requiring tax increases to cover rising costs for disaster response, infrastructure, and healthcare. By the end of the century, tax rate increases of 1.4% (low-emissions) or 2.7% (high-emissions) would be needed to maintain services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Combining proactive adaptation with global emissions reductions is the most effective strategy, potentially reducing Canada's total real GDP losses by 75%. Proactive adaptation offers a high return on investment, with every $1 spent yielding $13-$15 in total benefits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000418#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation","greenhouse gas emissions","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Northern Canada","Alberta"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling","bottom-up analysis","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"sei-002132","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002132","title":"NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5170.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Nigeria's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) establishes a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2060. The strategy analyzes four decarbonization scenarios—Business As Usual (BAU), Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Gas Economy Scenario (GES), and Renewable Energy Scenario (RES)—concluding that the RES, supported by international aid (RES+), offers the most promising balance of low emissions and economic growth. The report details sectoral mitigation measures for power, AFOLU, industry, transport, and waste, alongside a comprehensive adaptation framework to protect the economy, particularly the agriculture sector, from climate-induced GDP losses. Implementation relies on policy, financial, and technological innovations, including carbon pricing and the establishment of a National Climate Change Fund.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Nigeria has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, updating its previous 2050 vision to ensure a climate-resilient, high-growth circular economy in a gender-responsive manner.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Renewable Energy Scenario (RES) is the only pathway that meets the goal of cutting emissions by 50% by 2050, projecting a 96.8% reduction in emissions by 2060 compared to 2018 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The RES+ scenario, which assumes international financial aid to fund the shift from the Current Policy Scenario to the RES trajectory, is identified as the most promising, with a projected real GDP growth rate of 5.52% and an unemployment rate of 6.00% by 2060.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The cumulative international financial aid required to achieve the RES+ scenario over 38 years is estimated at 859 billion 2021 USD.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is the second highest producer of emissions; the strategy aims to increase national forest cover to a minimum of 25% by 2060 through planting at least 25 million trees annually.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Power sector decarbonization targets include increasing the renewable energy mix to at least 60% by 2060, with specific goals for Solar PV utility (45,000 MW), Wind (25,000 MW), and Nuclear (20,000 MW).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The strategy for the oil and gas sector focuses on eliminating gas flaring by 2030 and reducing methane leakage to 85% by 2050 and 98% by 2060.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transport sector mitigation involves a shift toward electric and ethanol vehicles, targeting 55% and 45% of light-duty vehicles respectively by 2060, and shifting 50% of road passenger car transport to BRT buses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is projected to cause a 4.92% decline in Nigeria's GDP by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario, with the agriculture sector contributing 64% of this decline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To recover from climate-induced GDP loss, Nigeria needs to expand climate-smart agricultural practices to an additional 58% of cultivated area, improved crop varieties to 50%, irrigation to 38%, and organic fertilizer to 25%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The strategy emphasizes a 'Just Transition' to ensure that the shift from extractive to regenerative economics provides social protection and equitably replaces fossil fuel revenues by 2060.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Key financial enablers include the operationalization of the National Climate Change Fund established under the Climate Change Act 2021 and the establishment of an Emission Trading System (ETS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002132#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Net-zero emissions","carbon capture and storage","renewable energy","nuclear power","electric vehicle","methane emissions","gas flaring","afforestation","reforestation","Climate-smart agriculture","circular economy","waste-to-energy","carbon price","climate bond","climate finance","nature-based solutions","just transition","blue economy","climate change adaptation","loss and damage"],"geography_discussed":["Lagos","Chad Basin","Adamawa State","Borno State","Yobe State"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","macroeconomic modelling","sectoral mitigation planning","vulnerability assessment"]},{"id":"wwfza-000213","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwfza-000213","title":"TOWARDS A COUNTRY AND A WORLD FREE OF PLASTIC POLLUTION SOUTH AFRICA","publisher":{"name":"WWF South Africa","organization":"wwf-south-africa"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/wwf-plastic-phase_out-factsheet-7nov.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines a proposal to ban four unnecessary plastic products by 2025 and phase out six others by 2030 in South Africa. A macroeconomic model indicates that these interventions would lead to positive outcomes in real GDP, employment, and wages compared to a business-as-usual scenario, despite a slight increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The report advocates for the South African government to support these measures in the negotiations for a global treaty to end plastic pollution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000213#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study identifies 10 high-risk plastic products for removal: four for immediate ban by 2024–2025 (plastic stirrers, straws except for medical use, oxo-degradable additives, and microbeads in personal care products) and six for phasing out by 2025–2030 (barrier bags, lollipop sticks, polystyrene fast-food/takeaway containers, sachets for takeout food items, single-use tableware, and cotton buds with plastic stems).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000213#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Compared to a business-as-usual baseline, both the ban and phase-out scenarios project positive economic growth. The ban scenario predicts a 0.3% positive deviation in real GDP and a 0.3% increase in exports of goods and services up to 2030. The phase-out scenario predicts a more significant 3% positive deviation in real GDP, a 5% increase in exports, and a 2.8% increase in imports of goods and services by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000213#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Employment and wages are expected to grow more rapidly under the intervention scenarios than the baseline. Total employment growth is projected at 3.5% for the ban scenario and 5.2% for the phase-out scenario, compared to 3.2% for the baseline. Cumulative wage increases are projected at 8.4% for the ban and 10.4% for the phase-out, versus 8% for the baseline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000213#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While the interventions reduce plastic leakage, they are projected to cause a slight increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all sectors: 0.35% for the ban scenario and 0.55% for the phase-out scenario relative to the baseline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000213#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa generates 41kg of plastic waste per capita annually, which is higher than the global average of 29kg. Approximately 488 kilotonnes of plastic pollute the environment each year, with 275 kt contributing to air pollution via open burning, 145 kt to land pollution, and 68 kt to aquatic pollution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000213#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["plastic pollution","circular economy","greenhouse gas emissions","waste management","single-use plastic"],"geography_discussed":["World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["socio-economic impact assessment","macroeconomic modelling"]}]}