{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["macroeconomic impact assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'macroeconomic impact assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":6,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=macroeconomic+impact+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iejza-000226","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000226","title":"Modelling fiscal pathways to a basic income","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2024-01","source_url":"https://www.iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-English.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that a Basic Income Grant (BIG) is affordable and sustainable for South Africa, potentially reducing poverty by up to two-thirds and increasing GDP growth from 2.2% to between 2.8% and 3.5% by 2030. It presents three modelling scenarios (low, medium, and high ambition) funded through a combination of wealth taxes, a social security tax, and increased VAT revenue generated by stimulated consumption. The analysis suggests that the net cost of a UBIG could be as low as 50% of its gross cost due to the 'multiplier effect' and tax clawbacks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000226#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Modelling of three BIG pathways from 2023 to 2030 indicates that a basic income is fiscally sustainable and positively impacts growth, poverty, and unemployment, with the potential to reduce the poverty rate by up to two-thirds within eight years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000226#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of BIG pathways is projected to increase GDP growth from a baseline of 2.2% to a range of 2.8% to 3.5% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000226#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A Universal Basic Income Guarantee (UBIG) paid to all adults aged 18-59 at the 2022 Food Poverty Line (R624 per month) would have a gross cost of R255 billion annually, though actual costs would be lower (R153 billion to R204 billion) if uptake is between 60% and 80%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000226#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net cost of a UBIG could be as low as 50% of the gross cost due to the 'multiplier effect' of spending in poor communities, VAT returns (estimated at 12% of grant spending), and a social security tax (SST) which could cover approximately 25% of the cost.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000226#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Proposed progressive financing mechanisms include a wealth tax on the top 1% (potentially raising R143 billion), a 25% VAT on luxury goods (R9 billion annually), a Financial Transactions Tax of 0.1% (R41 billion annually), and a Resource Rent Tax (over R38 billion per year).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000226#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The high-ambition pathway aims for a grant value of 6x the Upper Bound Poverty Line by 2028-2030, covering about 45% of the working-age population, suggesting a fully universal basic income is achievable in the 2030s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000226#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["poverty reduction","fiscal policy","economic growth"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal modelling","macroeconomic impact assessment"]},{"id":"cer-000956","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cer-000956","title":"Final Synthesis Report","publisher":{"name":"Centre for Environmental Rights","organization":"centre-for-environmental-rights"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-07-27","source_url":"https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Final-report_SO2Panel_submit.pdf?x21779","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report evaluates the impact of SO2 emissions from large solid fuel combustion installations in South Africa, primarily those operated by Eskom and Sasol. It concludes that implementing stricter emission standards is technologically feasible and economically beneficial for society due to significant reductions in public health costs, despite the high capital costs for plant operators. The panel recommends a flexible regulatory approach where emission limits are tailored to the remaining lifetime of each plant, suggesting that plants operating beyond the mid-2030s should meet stricter limits of 250 mg/Nm3 or 500 mg/Nm3, while those retiring sooner may be granted more lenient limits of 1000 mg/Nm3. The report highlights that 'expedited retirement' of older coal capacity could reduce retrofit costs by approximately 25% and minimize electricity tariff increases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Eskom and Sasol are the dominant sources of SO2 in South Africa, accounting for 99.7% of emissions from solid fuel combustion installations larger than 50MW.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"SO2 emissions from Eskom facilities alone are estimated to cause external health costs of 1135 billion rand per year across various studies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The panel identifies several mature technologies for SO2 reduction, with Wet Flue Gas Desulphurisation (Wet FGD) being the most common worldwide and most considered for limits of 500 mg/Nm3 or lower in South Africa due to high efficiency (>90%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) indicates that it is economically beneficial and technically feasible for all plants operating post-2030 to meet an MES of 1000 mg/Nm3 or lower, with most benefiting from limits of 250 mg/Nm3 or 500 mg/Nm3.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Expedited retirement' policy option is the most cost-effective, reducing upfront investment costs to R 240 billion and limiting electricity tariff increases to 6.2%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing the 'BAT on all plants' scenario (250 mg/Nm3 limit) would reduce public health costs by 92% compared to doing nothing, but would require an upfront investment of R 606 billion and a 14.6% electricity tariff increase.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The manufacturing sector, particularly the Minerals-Energy Complex (MEC), would be most affected by the resulting electricity tariff increases, with production costs rising between 4.99% and 14.3%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Retrofitting emission controls is projected to have a positive impact on employment, with the 'BAT on all plants' option creating an average of 23,000 construction jobs between 2025 and 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000956#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","public health","energy transition","industrial emission"],"geography_discussed":["Highveld Priority Area","Vaal Triangle Priority Area","Mpumalanga","Limpopo","Gauteng","People's Republic of China","Japan","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","policy assessment","macroeconomic impact assessment"]},{"id":"clipolin-000939","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000939","title":"An Assessment of India’s Energy Choices: What it Means for the Economy, Jobs, and Energy Security","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2018-05","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/What-it-Means-for-the-Economy-Jobs-and-Energy-Security_Executive-Summary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The analysis finds that renewable energy growth is positively associated with India's GDP, employment, and energy security, while helping to reduce the fiscal deficit and net energy imports. Despite these benefits, the report projects that India will likely miss its 175 GW renewable energy target by 2022, instead reaching it between 2027 and 2033 depending on the scenario. Under an optimistic scenario, renewable energy could add up to 4.52 million domestic jobs by 2042.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000939#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Renewable energy penetration is positively correlated with several key macroeconomic indicators in India: as GDP grows, renewable energy generation increases; as renewable energy generation increases, the fiscal deficit and net energy imports decrease; and higher renewable energy generation corresponds to lower unemployment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000939#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India is projected to miss its target of 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022. Depending on the scenario, this target is expected to be achieved in 2027-28 (optimistic), 2029-30 (business as usual), or 2032-33 (pessimistic).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000939#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The potential for job creation in the renewable energy sector is significant, with the optimistic scenario projecting 4.52 million jobs by 2042. For the year 2022, direct incremental job generation is estimated at 311,000 (optimistic), 286,000 (business as usual), and 251,000 (pessimistic).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000939#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India's energy security, measured by the energy security index (ESI), is currently low at 0.41. It is projected to improve to 0.58 by 2042 under the optimistic scenario, representing a more than 40% improvement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000939#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis found an unexpected negative correlation between renewable energy generation and both the total population and the percentage of the population with energy access, which the authors suggest may be due to the limited 27-year time series dataset and existing dependence on fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000939#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","solar energy","wind energy","energy security","climate finance","green job","fossil fuel","energy access","gross domestic product"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic impact assessment","scenario forecasting"]},{"id":"sei-001468","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001468","title":"México: Estudio sobre la disminución de emisiones de carbono","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":"2009","source_url":"https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_ES.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report provides a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of 40 low-carbon interventions in Mexico, focusing on electricity, oil and gas, end-use energy, transport, and agriculture and forestry. It argues that Mexico can stabilize its greenhouse gas emissions at 2008 levels by 2030 while maintaining economic growth, provided it overcomes institutional and regulatory barriers. The study highlights 'win-win' interventions with positive economic returns and significant co-benefits for public health and energy security.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Implementing 40 identified low-carbon interventions could reduce Mexico's greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 477 MtCO2e by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario, effectively stabilizing emissions at 2008 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The agricultural and forestry sector offers the highest potential for emission reductions, accounting for 32% of the total reductions in the MEDEC scenario, primarily through REDD strategies, reforestation, and plantations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transport sector is the largest and fastest-growing source of emissions; the study identifies high-impact interventions such as urban densification, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, and improved vehicle efficiency standards.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the electricity sector, the baseline scenario predicts a 230% increase in emissions between 2008 and 2030, largely due to a projected increase in coal-fired generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The MEDEC scenario for electricity replaces fossil fuel capacity with renewables, reducing coal's share of generation from 31% to 6% and increasing wind, geothermal, and biomass contributions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Significant 'win-win' opportunities exist in the oil and gas sector, particularly through cogeneration at Pemex facilities, which could provide over 6% of Mexico's total installed electrical capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total new investment required to achieve the MEDEC scenario between 2009 and 2030 is approximately $64.5 billion, representing about 0.4% of Mexico's 2008 GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model suggests that implementing these interventions would increase Mexico's overall GDP by 5.58% by 2030, with the most significant gains in the agricultural and forestry sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Institutional and regulatory barriers, such as the lack of a portfolio-based planning method at CFE and restrictive public procurement rules, hinder the adoption of low-carbon technologies despite their economic viability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001468#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","energy efficiency","renewable energy","wind power","geothermal energy","bioenergy","sustainable transport","bus rapid transit","reforestation","Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation","biofuel","climate finance","energy security"],"geography_discussed":["World","Latin America and the Caribbean","Oaxaca","Veracruz"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","scenario modeling","macroeconomic impact assessment"]},{"id":"sei-001467","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001467","title":"Low-Carbon Development for MEXICO","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://leap.sei.org/documents/MEDEC2009_EN.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes 40 low-carbon interventions in Mexico's electric power, oil and gas, energy end-use, transport, and agriculture and forestry sectors. It finds that implementing these measures could stabilize emissions at 2008 levels by 2030, avoiding approximately 477 Mt CO2e relative to a baseline scenario. Many of these interventions are 'no-regrets' options with positive economic returns, though their scale-up is hindered by institutional, regulatory, and financial barriers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under a baseline scenario, Mexico's total greenhouse gas emissions are projected to grow from 659 Mt CO2e in 2008 to 1,137 Mt CO2e by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of 40 identified MEDEC interventions could reduce CO2e emissions by approximately 477 Mt by 2030 compared to the baseline, effectively stabilizing emissions at 2008 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agriculture and forestry offer the highest cumulative emissions reduction potential, contributing 32% of the total reductions in the MEDEC scenario, followed by transport at 27%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant portion of the proposed mitigation is highly cost-effective; 82% of the total emissions reduction potential of MEDEC interventions costs $10/t CO2e or less.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the electric power sector, the baseline scenario predicts a 230% increase in CO2e emissions by 2030, driven by a shift toward coal and natural gas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electric power sector could significantly reduce emissions by replacing fossil fuel capacity with wind, geothermal, biomass, and small hydro, reducing coal's share of generation from 31% to 6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Road transport is the largest and fastest-growing source of emissions in Mexico, with road transport accounting for approximately 90% of the sector's CO2e emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Forestry interventions, particularly those reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), account for 85% of the proposed mitigation in the agriculture and forestry sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy end-use efficiency in the residential sector is hindered by electricity subsidies for middle- and high-income consumers, which discourage investment in efficient appliances.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total new investment required to achieve the MEDEC low-carbon scenario is estimated at $64.5 billion between 2009 and 2030, representing about 0.4% of Mexico's 2008 GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Macroeconomic modeling suggests that implementing MEDEC interventions could increase Mexico's overall GDP by up to 5% by 2030, with the greatest welfare gains accruing to the lowest income deciles.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001467#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","renewable energy","energy efficiency","electricity generation","wind power","geothermal power","small hydro","petroleum industry","methane leak","sustainable transport","bus rapid transit","forestry","reforestation","afforestation","Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation","biofuel","climate finance","clean development mechanism"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil","People's Republic of China","India","South Africa","Oaxaca","Veracruz"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","scenario modeling","macroeconomic impact assessment"]},{"id":"wri-000949","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-000949","title":"Macroeconomic Impacts of Long-Term Decarbonization in India: Implications for a Just Transition","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.wri.org/research/macroeconomic-impacts-long-term-decarbonization-india-implications-just-transition","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The analysis indicates that India can achieve its 2070 net-zero target without compromising economic development, though the transition will create uneven regional and sectoral impacts. Key challenges include the need for economic diversification in fossil fuel-dependent regions, increased demand for skilled workers in specialized manufacturing, and the risk of exacerbating vulnerabilities in sectors like construction. Additionally, the decline in fossil fuel tax revenues will necessitate new public revenue mobilization strategies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000949#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"India can transition to a low-carbon economy consistent with its net-zero target without hindering its overall economic development, provided that policy roadmaps address the uneven nature of the impacts to ensure equity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000949#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition is expected to cause regional economic disparities due to changes in sectoral activity, necessitating diversification programs for areas dependent on fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000949#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Labor market shifts will include a move toward specialized manufacturing requiring higher skill levels and a potential increase in worker vulnerability in fast-growing sectors like construction, which currently suffer from poor working conditions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000949#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Declining tax revenues from fossil fuels are likely to increase pressure on public expenditure, requiring the identification of new sources for public revenue mobilization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000949#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Net-zero emissions","decarbonization","just transition","clean energy","fossil fuel","economic diversity"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic impact assessment"]}]}