{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["macroeconomic forecasting"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'macroeconomic forecasting' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=macroeconomic+forecasting","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-000279","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000279","title":"Comoros: Conclusion","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-31","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KM&topic=05-conclusion","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes development scenarios for Comoros, contrasting a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' of sectoral interventions. It identifies systemic barriers including corruption, poor infrastructure, and climate change, while proposing a comprehensive policy framework focusing on governance, agricultural productivity, human capital, and the mobilization of international finance to reduce poverty and expand the formal economy by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A 'Combined scenario' of eight sectoral interventions could significantly boost Comoros' economy by 2043, increasing GDP to US$4,801 million—a 67.6% increase over the 'Current Path' projection of US$2,865 million. Under this scenario, GDP per capita is projected to reach US$6,674, which is US$2,072 higher than the Current Path's US$4,602.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined scenario is projected to reduce the informal sector's share of GDP to 24.6% by 2043, compared to 29.2% on the Current Path. This shift would result in approximately 298,600 fewer informal laborers, reducing the proportion of informal labor from 52.1% to 39% of the total workforce.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Extreme poverty in Comoros could be significantly reduced under the Combined scenario, with only 182,950 people (14.6% of the population) living in extreme poverty by 2043. This represents an improvement where nearly 185,409 more people are lifted out of poverty compared to the Current Path.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Comoros faces several interconnected obstacles to prosperity, including insecurity, poor governance, a weak business climate, lack of infrastructure, shortage of human capital, and a heavy dependence on low-productivity agriculture without diversification. Climate change is also identified as a main obstacle.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To improve agricultural productivity and diversify the economy, the government is advised to invest in productivity-enhancing technologies, provide farmers with drought-resistant and high-yield seedlings, and support R&D focused on agricultural productivity, energy production, and resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends strengthening human capital by expanding education and vocational training, particularly in rural areas. Health system improvements should include investing in infrastructure, combating child malnutrition through nutrition programs, and providing free access to vaccines for children under 5 and treatments for tropical diseases like malaria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To attract more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which currently remains low compared to other lower-middle-income African countries, Comoros should create a transparent business environment and utilize the AfCFTA to increase market size for investors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000279#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","agricultural productivity","economic diversity","governance","infrastructure","poverty reduction"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Rwanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic forecasting","policy analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-002155","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002155","title":"Impact of COVID-19 in Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-07","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar24v2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa, concluding that the pandemic will cause a severe development setback. It forecasts that Africa's economy will be between US$349 billion and US$643 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic projections. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct COVID-19 mortality, the report warns that reduced health expenditure and high debt levels could lead to significant indirect deaths and a systemic human development crisis. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased domestic health spending, and accelerated digitisation to build long-term resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"COVID-19 is projected to significantly reduce Africa's economic size by 2030, with the total loss estimated between US$349 billion and US$643 billion compared to pre-pandemic forecasts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The recovery of GDP per capita to 2019 levels varies by scenario: a best-case (V-shaped) recovery is expected by 2024, while a worst-case (L-shaped) recovery would not occur until 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Extreme poverty is expected to rise across all scenarios; 14 million additional Africans were projected to be extremely poor in 2020, with the number increasing to between 38 and 70 million more people by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While Africa's youthful population (median age below 20) provides a demographic advantage against COVID-19 mortality, this is undermined by high comorbidity rates and low health system capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The pandemic is forecast to cause a cumulative reduction in health expenditure between US$141 billion (V scenario) and US$243 billion (L scenario) by 2030, potentially leading to more deaths from hunger and reduced healthcare than from the virus itself.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa's ability to respond to the pandemic is severely constrained by low tax-to-GDP ratios and a high debt burden, with the collapse in growth likely to trigger a debt crisis or defaults.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The pandemic is expected to hinder progress toward 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically increasing the undernourished population and leaving infant mortality three times higher than the UN target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Poor access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure—with Africa investing only 0.5% of GDP in these areas—impedes effective COVID-19 countermeasures like handwashing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Tanzania as the countries most negatively affected across all three scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002155#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["economic growth","Sustainable Development Goals","public health","renewable energy","economic diversity"],"geography_discussed":["Egypt","South Africa","Algeria","Morocco","Nigeria","Ghana","Tanzania","Uganda","Rwanda","Senegal","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Ethiopia","Niger"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","macroeconomic forecasting"]},{"id":"sei-001323","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001323","title":"Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations COUNTRY STUDY SERIES Ecuador","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"1999","source_url":"https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Ecuador.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes Ecuador's energy sector, focusing on its heavy reliance on oil and the potential for reducing CO2 emissions. It proposes a mitigation scenario involving increased energy efficiency in households, industry, and transport, alongside a shift toward renewable energy in power generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Ecuador's economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector, which accounted for approximately 14.1% of GDP and 31.06% of total exports as of the reporting period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country faces significant deforestation, with a net loss of almost 1.3 million hectares of forest cover between 1985 and 1992, resulting in an annual average deforestation rate of 178,000 hectares.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Oil and gas products dominate the final energy consumption mix, providing 71% of total demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transport sector is the primary emitter of greenhouse gases in the Ecuadorian energy system, with gasoline and diesel as the main fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a significant potential for energy savings in the residential sector, estimated at 40 PJ by 2030, which represents 32% of household energy consumption under the reference scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the mitigation scenario, total primary energy requirements by 2030 are reduced by 214 PJ, or approximately 21% compared to the reference case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The mitigation scenario proposes shifting the power generation mix by 2030 to reduce thermal generation from oil from 73% (reference case) to 40%, increasing the share of natural gas, geothermal, and wind energy to 17%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Total CO2 reductions achieved in the mitigation scenario by 2030 are estimated at 15 million tons, with 52% of these reductions resulting from electricity savings in power generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most cost-effective CO2 reduction option identified is the improvement of household lighting, with a cost of 1.5 USD per ton of CO2.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests a 20% fuel tax on light cargo gasoline vehicles as a mitigation tool to incentivize the adoption of more efficient technology.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ecuador's electricity supply is highly vulnerable to the dry season, as major hydropower stations like Paute, Agoyán, and Pisayambo rely on a single hydrological basin.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The government provides substantial subsidies for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which the report describes as regressive because it primarily benefits higher-income groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001323#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","energy efficiency","hydropower","petroleum industry","deforestation","renewable energy","wind energy","geothermal energy","Transportation emission","carbon sequestration","energy price","emission intensity"],"geography_discussed":["Amazon Region","Gulf of Guayaquil","Quito"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","cost-benefit analysis","macroeconomic forecasting"]}]}