{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["longitudinal study"]},"warnings":[]},"total":{"value":40,"relation":"eq"},"page":2,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=longitudinal+study&page=2","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"commgmu-000057","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/commgmu-000057","title":"Understanding the Health Harms of Climate Change: A Six Americas Analysis","publisher":{"name":"Center for Climate Change Communication","organization":"center-for-climate-change-communication"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2021-03-30","source_url":"https://climatecommunication.gmu.edu/all/understanding-the-health-harms-of-climate-change-a-six-americas-analysis/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Between 2014 and 2020, there was a significant increase in the proportion of U.S. adults who recognize the health harms caused by climate change. This trend was observed across most of the 'Six Americas' audience segments, including those with low engagement like the Cautious and Disengaged, while the Doubtful and Dismissive segments showed little to no change in risk perception.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000057#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The proportion of the U.S. population identifying as 'Alarmed' about climate change more than doubled between 2014 and 2020, with over half of American adults falling into the Alarmed (26%) or Concerned (28%) segments by April 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000057#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public recognition of health harms from climate change increased significantly between 2014 and 2020; for instance, the percentage of Americans expecting increased bodily harm from severe storms and hurricanes rose from 34% to 57%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000057#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perceptions of harm from wildfires more than doubled for the general population, increasing from 26% in 2014 to 54% in 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000057#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased awareness of health risks was observed in the Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, and Disengaged segments, while the Doubtful and Dismissive segments showed little or no change in their risk perceptions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000057#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Similar patterns of increased risk perception were found regarding diseases carried by insects and asthma or other lung diseases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000057#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","human health","hurricane","wildfire","vector-borne disease"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["comparative analysis","longitudinal study"]},{"id":"wwf-000232","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwf-000232","title":"Demand Under the Ban -- China Ivory Consumption Research 2019","publisher":{"name":"WWF International","organization":"wwf-international"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2019-09","source_url":"https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/509/1kaa8frt6d_Demand_Under_the_Ban___China_Ivory_Consumption_Research_2019_FINAL.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that while the 2017 ivory ban significantly reduced purchase rates compared to pre-ban levels, demand remains persistent among 'Diehard Buyers' and regular overseas travelers. By 2019, self-reported ivory purchase in the past 12 months rose to 17% from 14% in 2018. The study identifies three consumer segments: Rejectors, Ban Influenced Citizens, and Diehard Buyers, noting that the latter are increasingly likely to purchase ivory in the future. Overseas travel to Thailand, Hong Kong SAR, and Cambodia is a primary channel for ivory acquisition. Awareness of the ban is high when prompted, and conservation campaigns are generally viewed positively, though they are less effective at persuading the most persistent buyers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Self-reported ivory purchase in the past 12 months in 2019 was 17%, which is significantly lower than the 31% reported pre-ban in 2017, but represents an increase from 14% in 2018.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies three distinct consumer segments: 'Rejectors' (least likely to buy), 'Ban Influenced Citizens' (whose decisions are strongly shaped by the ban), and 'Diehard Buyers' (most persistent and least likely to be swayed).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Diehard Buyers are typically male, have high income and education, travel overseas regularly, and show an increasing intention to purchase ivory in the future despite the ban.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regular overseas travelers are the only group with reported ivory purchase rates in 2019 that are higher than pre-ban levels in 2017.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Thailand, Hong Kong SAR, and Cambodia are the top three destinations for Chinese consumers purchasing ivory abroad, with Cambodia showing a relatively higher proportion of buyers relative to the number of tourists it receives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While 85% of respondents believe ivory sale in China is illegal, spontaneous awareness of the specific 2017 ban remains low at 7%, though prompted awareness increased to 48% in 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The strongest deterrents to ivory purchase are concerns regarding elephant extinction and animal cruelty, while the primary drivers are the perceived artistic value and uniqueness of the material.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Awareness of conservation campaigns is highest among Diehard Buyers and regular overseas travelers, and these groups generally react positively to the messaging, although Diehard Buyers remain determined to buy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Hangzhou, ivory purchase rates are lower than the 15-city average, but the intention to purchase ivory in the future is higher, suggesting the city may be an emerging ivory trade hub.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000232#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Thailand","Hong Kong","Cambodia","Hangzhou"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["market segmentation","quantitative survey","longitudinal study","predictive modeling"]},{"id":"iisd-002708","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002708","title":"Comprehensive Wealth in Canada 2018 – Measuring What Matters in the Long Term","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-10","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/comprehensive-wealth-canada-2018.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that Canada's development has been unsustainable for significant periods since 2008, as comprehensive wealth declined or grew on a fragile basis despite GDP growth. Key vulnerabilities include stagnant per capita human capital, produced capital concentrated in housing and oil and gas, and the physical depletion of most market natural assets. While financial capital grew recently due to foreign stock market gains, household debt has reached unprecedented levels, increasing financial fragility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Canada's development was on an unsustainable path during two distinct periods between 1980 and 2015: from 1988 to 1992 and from 2008 to 2012, characterized by steady declines in real comprehensive wealth per capita.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human capital, the largest component of Canada's comprehensive wealth (averaging 78% of the total), did not grow in real per capita terms between 1980 and 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Produced capital has become increasingly concentrated in housing and oil and gas extraction; by 2015, oil and gas extraction infrastructure accounted for 25% of all business sector-produced capital, up from 9% in 1980.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Market natural assets declined by 17% in real per capita terms from 1980 to 2015, driven by the physical depletion of 15 out of 19 key natural resource assets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The value of Canada's oil and gas assets experienced a precipitous nominal decline of 83% in 2015 following a drop in oil prices, falling from $446 billion in 2014 to $89 billion in 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Canada's key ecosystems—forests, wetlands, grasslands, and lakes/rivers—have declined in physical extent and are increasingly impacted by human development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate variables show trends consistent with climate change: national precipitation increased by 18% and average temperatures increased by 1.8 degrees Celsius between 1948 and 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The growth in national comprehensive wealth from 2013 to 2015 was driven by atypical financial market trends, specifically gains in U.S. equities and a declining Canadian dollar, rather than increased foreign investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Household debt has reached unprecedented levels, with the debt-to-disposable income ratio rising from 87% in 1990 to 166% in 2015.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Since 1997, the Canadian household sector has shifted from being a net lender to a net borrower, with discretionary saving effectively ceasing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Social capital indicators remained generally stable between 2003 and 2013, though diversity in social networks showed a clear upward trend, increasing from 54% to 59%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002708#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural capital","climate change","ecosystem service","fossil fuel","oil sands","deforestation","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Ontario"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","economic assessment","sustainability analysis"]},{"id":"pari-000204","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/pari-000204","title":"Machinery of Government Change in South Africa’s Post-democratic Public administration","publisher":{"name":"Public Affairs Research Institute","organization":"public-affairs-research-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2018-02","source_url":"https://pari.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/20180221_VinothanNaidoo_WorkingPaper_GovernmentMachinery.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research traces the expansion of South Africa's national government departments from 1994 to 2014. It identifies three distinct phases: incremental growth under Nelson Mandela driven by democratic transition and public demand; consolidation and centralised steering under Thabo Mbeki; and punctuated expansion under Jacob Zuma, which the author argues was driven largely by patronage and 'runaway state-building'. The paper concludes that the state machinery has become 'functionally splintered', with organisational growth often serving political ends rather than improving policy delivery capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000204#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Between 1994 and 2014, South Africa's national government machinery followed a general expansionary trajectory, with only seven departments remaining in continuous existence throughout the entire period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000204#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under President Nelson Mandela (1994-1999), the public administration saw incremental growth and organisational remodelling driven by the need to integrate race-based structures and respond to high public demand for services, despite official rhetoric regarding 'rationalisation'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000204#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The administration of Thabo Mbeki (2000-2008) was characterised by organisational stability and a shift toward centralised political control, expanding the Office of the President to strengthen policy oversight without significantly reducing the number of departments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000204#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under President Jacob Zuma (2009-2014), there was a punctuated increase in ministerial departments. The author argues this expansion was less about functional necessity and more about 'runaway state-building' to reward partisans and manage patronage pressures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000204#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proliferation of 'public entities' (non-departmental bodies) in South Africa occurred in an ideological vacuum, often used to bypass bureaucratic red tape rather than as a strategic effort to improve efficiency through 'agencification'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000204#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author concludes that the South African state is 'functionally splintered' rather than overstretched, meaning that while the number of organisations has grown, this has not translated into increased state capacity or improved bureaucratic performance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000204#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","narrative analysis","organisational analysis"]},{"id":"pari-000252","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/pari-000252","title":"Tracking the expansionary state: machinery of government change in South Africa","publisher":{"name":"Public Affairs Research Institute","organization":"public-affairs-research-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2017-07","source_url":"https://pari.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Machinery-of-govt-working-paper.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper traces the growth of South Africa's national bureaucracy from 1994 to 2014, identifying a trajectory of sustained but uneven expansion. It argues that while early changes under President Mandela were driven by democratic transition and public demand, the Mbeki era focused on centralized coordination, and the Zuma era saw a punctuated increase in departments potentially driven by patronage and 'runaway state-building'. The author concludes that the state has become 'functionally splintered' rather than simply bloated, leading to redundancies and coordination failures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa's national government machinery experienced a sustained but uneven expansion from 1994 to 2014, with only seven departments remaining in continuous existence throughout the entire period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The first sub-period (Mandela presidency, 1994-1999) was characterized by incremental growth and organizational remodeling driven by the need to scale up service delivery to groups disenfranchised under apartheid and the pressure of inter-party power-sharing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The second sub-period (Mbeki presidency, 2000-2008) was a phase of consolidation and relative stability, focusing on political centralization through the expansion of 'The Presidency' and the use of 'clustering' to coordinate cabinet departments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The third sub-period (Zuma presidency, 2009-2014) saw a 'big bang' punctuated increase in ministerial departments, which the author suggests may have been driven by patronage pressures and the need to sustain a coalition of cabinet support.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author argues that the South African state is 'functionally splintered' rather than 'bloated' in scope, meaning that functional splitting and organizational specialization have occurred without necessarily expanding the state's actual activities, leading to redundancies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Efforts to implement 'New Public Management' or private sector efficiency values have had little impact; instead, the growth of non-departmental 'public entities' occurred in an ideological vacuum to circumvent red tape rather than to improve efficiency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The expansion of the state machinery has coincided with a ballooning budget deficit from 2009/10 through 2014, indicating significant financial strain in sustaining the overhead costs of the bureaucracy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"pari-000252#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fiscal policy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","organizational analysis","political economy analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-001230","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001230","title":"COMPREHENSIVE WEALTH IN CANADA","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016-12","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/comprehensive-wealth-full-report-web.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that Canada's comprehensive wealth grew by only 0.19% annually from 1980 to 2013, significantly lagging behind real per capita consumption growth of 1.36%. While produced capital grew by 1.68% annually, this was heavily concentrated in housing and oil and gas extraction. Conversely, market natural capital declined by 0.93% annually, and human capital—the largest component of wealth—remained flat. The authors argue that this divergence suggests underinvestment in the asset base and a risky reliance on natural resource depletion, recommending that Statistics Canada begin regular reporting of comprehensive wealth to guide sustainable policy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Canada's comprehensive wealth grew by 7% in real per capita terms between 1980 and 2013, representing a lacklustre annualized growth rate of 0.19%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Real per capita consumption grew at an annual rate of 1.36% (54% total) from 1980 to 2013, creating a gap between consumption and the growth of the asset base that suggests potential long-term sustainability concerns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human capital is the largest component of Canada's comprehensive wealth, accounting for 80% on average, yet it showed 0% growth in real per capita terms from 1980 to 2013.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Market natural capital declined by 25% per capita between 1980 and 2013, with an annual decline rate of 0.93%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Produced capital grew by 73% per person (1.68% annually) from 1980 to 2013, but this growth was highly concentrated, with 70% attributed to housing and the oil and gas extraction industry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The oil and gas extraction industry's share of business-sector produced capital increased from approximately 9% in 1980 to 28% by 2013.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Non-monetary indicators suggest that non-market natural capital has declined, with forest area decreasing slightly between 2000 and 2011 and wetlands declining in most parts of the country.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate indicators show trends consistent with climate change predictions, including an overall national increase in temperature and precipitation from 1948 to 2014, and declines in annual average snow cover (1972-2011), glacier mass (1960-2007), and sea ice extent (1968-2010).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Social capital appears stable but not growing, with only 'Diversity in Social Networks' showing a strong, consistent upward trend between 2003 and 2013.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Canada's productivity growth from 1980 to 2013 was only 0.11% annually, which is insufficient to explain the divergence between consumption growth and comprehensive wealth growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The nominal value of Canada's market natural capital fell by 75% between the first quarter of 2014 and the fourth quarter of 2015, primarily due to the drop in global oil prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Compared to G7 nations, Canada ranks first in the level of comprehensive wealth per capita but last in terms of the growth of that wealth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Canada's greenhouse gas productivity ranked 31st out of 34 OECD member states in 2013, and its environmental taxes as a share of national tax revenue ranked second last among OECD members.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001230#insight-13","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural capital","sustainable development","climate change","ecosystem service","carbon sequestration","fossil fuel","deforestation"],"geography_discussed":["World","United States","United Kingdom","Australia","New Zealand","Germany","France","Italy","Japan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","economic assessment","sustainability analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002712","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002712","title":"COMPREHENSIVE WEALTH IN CANADA - MEASURING WHAT MATTERS IN THE LONG RUN","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2016-12","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/comprehensive-wealth-executive-summary.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"This executive summary argues that Canada's reliance on GDP masks a lack of long-term sustainability in its comprehensive wealth portfolio. Between 1980 and 2013, real per capita comprehensive wealth grew by only 7%, while individual consumption grew by 54%. This divergence was driven by a 25% decline in market natural capital and stagnant human capital, with produced capital growth heavily concentrated in housing and oil and gas extraction. The report recommends that the federal government fund Statistics Canada to regularly measure comprehensive wealth, with a priority on human, social, and non-market natural capital, to guide a transition toward a diversified, low-carbon economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Canada's comprehensive wealth grew by only 7% in real per capita terms between 1980 and 2013, representing a low annualized growth rate of 0.19%. This growth lagged significantly behind average individual consumption, which increased by 54% (1.36% per year) over the same period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Market natural capital per person declined by 25% from 1980 to 2013 due to physical depletion and market changes. Non-monetary indicators further suggest declines in non-market natural capital, including forest area, wetland area, and glacier mass, as well as a decline in sea ice extent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human capital, which constitutes 80% of Canada's comprehensive wealth, showed 0% growth between 1980 and 2013. This stagnation occurred despite an increase in the number of Canadians graduating with diplomas, suggesting that the average worker's lifetime earning potential remained unchanged.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Produced capital grew by 73% per person (1.68% annually), but this growth was highly concentrated. Approximately 70% of the total growth in produced capital was driven by the housing sector and the oil and gas extraction industry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While Canada has the highest level of comprehensive wealth per capita among G7 nations due to its natural capital reserves, it ranked last among G7 members for the growth rate of that wealth between 1990 and 2010.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Social capital appears to be stable but not growing, based on non-monetary indicators. Only 'Diversity in Social Networks' showed a strong upward trend between 2003 and 2013, while trust and cooperative norms showed no consistent upward trend.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Canada's environmental performance relative to other OECD states is weak in certain areas: in 2013, Canada ranked 31st out of 34 OECD members in greenhouse gas productivity and second to last in environmental taxes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002712#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural capital","gross domestic product","climate change","low-carbon economy","economic diversity","ecosystem service","fossil fuel"],"geography_discussed":["France","Germany","Italy","Japan","United Kingdom","United States","Australia","New Zealand"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","economic assessment","sustainability analysis"]},{"id":"saiia-001556","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001556","title":"Exporting and Export Dynamics Among South African Firms","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2013-06","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Occasional-Paper-149.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper analyzes the relationship between firm size, productivity, and export destinations in South Africa. It finds that exports are highly concentrated among a small number of large firms and that there is a distinct divide between high-productivity firms exporting to developed markets (North America and Europe) and lower-productivity firms exporting to Africa (SADC). The author argues that regional African markets are the most viable path for small-to-medium enterprises and for job creation, as they do not require the same productivity thresholds as global markets. The study also identifies volatile exchange rates and transport costs as primary constraints facing South African exporters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001556#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Exporting in South Africa is highly concentrated, with the top 1% of exporting firms accounting for 79% of the total export value, which is significantly higher than the international average of 55%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001556#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a strong correlation between a firm's size and its ability to export, with a productivity and size threshold for entry typically falling in the 50–100 employee range. South African firms tend to enter export markets at a smaller size compared to peer-group countries like Brazil and Thailand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001556#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South African exporters are divided into two distinct groups: those exporting to high-income markets (North America and Western Europe) and those exporting to lower-income African markets (SADC). Firms exporting to developed countries are more productive, employ more highly skilled workers, pay higher wages, and are more likely to be specialist exporters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001556#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional African markets do not serve as a 'stepping stone' to developed international markets because the product quality, productivity levels, and firm characteristics required for each are too different.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001556#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2009 and 2012, the most significant constraints reported by exporters were the volatile exchange rate and transport costs, both of which became more onerous over time.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001556#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of export dynamics between 2009 and 2012 shows that firms entering the export market typically start with a low proportion of exports (median 35% of sales) and experience a substantial increase in labour productivity (nearly 300%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001556#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["trade policy","economic growth","job creation"],"geography_discussed":["SADC","Brazil","Thailand","India","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["firm-level analysis","comparative analysis","longitudinal study"]},{"id":"prio-001863","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001863","title":"Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1820\u00102008","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2012-06-29","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/be01efb7-6893-46b8-ab25-aa2e8c2037f8/WhyWaves_2012.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The authors find substantial support for the existence of democratic waves, arguing that they are driven by a combination of economic development, democratic diffusion from neighboring countries, the 'stickiness' of consistent institutional configurations, and systemic shocks such as world wars and the creation of new states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study confirms the existence of democratic waves and reverse waves, finding that political transitions tend to cluster in space and time. The data identifies a long democratic wave from the 19th century to approximately 1920, a second wave from 1940 to 1955, and a third wave starting post-1975 that continued through 2008.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic development has a non-monotonic relationship with regime change. Transitions toward autocracy are most likely at income levels around Int$ 500, while democratizations are most likely around Int$ 4,000. Additionally, economic growth is found to reduce the probability of transitions in either direction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Democratic diffusion occurs when a country's political system is influenced by its neighborhood and the global context. Countries are more likely to experience a transition toward democracy if their neighborhood or the world is more democratic than they are.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Institutional 'stickiness' significantly affects stability; regimes that are 'consistent' (either fully autocratic or fully democratic) are more stable than 'inconsistent' regimes. Inconsistent regimes are more prone to political transitions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Systemic shocks, including interstate wars, alliance shifts, and the creation of new states, contribute to the crests and troughs of democratic waves. While systemic wars and state creation are associated with an increased likelihood of autocratization in the short term, new states tend to be more democratic than old states with similar characteristics upon their creation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors argue that the 'fragile nature' of political institutions in newly created states often leads to subsequent reverse waves of democratization as these states encounter economic or security problems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001863#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Middle East","North Africa","Latin America","Rwanda","Georgia","Tunisia","Egypt","Libya","Niger","South Korea","Israel","North Korea"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["multinomial logit analysis","OLS regression","longitudinal study"]},{"id":"iisd-001671","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001671","title":"A Three Year Investigation into the Triple Bottom Line Performance of Small and Micro Social and Environmental Enterprises in Developing Countries","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2012-05","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/investigation_tripple_bottom_line.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the social, environmental, and business performance of 1,337 SMMEs in developing countries, with a focus on the 2011 applicant cohort. It identifies a strong trend toward the adoption of new technologies and a shift in organizational identity from strictly non-profit to hybrid or for-profit models. Key barriers include a lack of financial resources, limited access to technical research partners, and a deficiency in local-level environmental monitoring and enforcement. The study also highlights gender disparities, noting that women-led enterprises often face greater challenges in accessing business management skills and markets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Agriculture remains the dominant sector for SMMEs, while training is the second most common activity, highlighting the significant role these enterprises play in community skills-building.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a shifting perception of organizational identity, with an increase in enterprises identifying as for-profit or hybrid models, particularly in Africa, where the proportion of strictly non-profit entities dropped significantly between 2010 and 2011.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"SMMEs struggle to set clear and measurable targets, particularly for environmental goals, where 75% of respondents provide targets that are either absent or vague.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Access to technology and technical expertise is increasingly critical, with 80% or more of Cohorts 2 and 3 introducing new technologies or processes to their communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Financial sustainability remains a primary barrier; over 90% of respondents report lacking financing or access to investors, aid, or lines of credit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While national environmental legislation is generally viewed as being in place, the absence of local-level monitoring and enforcement is a significant barrier, cited as absent or partially available by 45% of respondents.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Women-led enterprises show higher awareness of gaps in their enabling environment, specifically regarding business regulations, government programs, business management skills, and market access.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In South Africa, SMMEs show a higher level of involvement with research institutions and technical experts compared to the global cohort, though they still face significant funding shortages.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"SEED Winners typically exhibit stronger business approaches and higher performance on targets than the general applicant pool, with a higher percentage identifying as for-profit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001671#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["green economy","sustainable development","land degradation","renewable energy","solar energy","biogas","biodiesel","waste management","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Asia","Latin America and Caribbean","South Africa","Ghana","Kenya","Madagascar","Rwanda","Burkina Faso","Nepal"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","survey analysis","gender analysis","case study"]},{"id":"commgmu-000194","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/commgmu-000194","title":"Global Warming’s Six Americas","publisher":{"name":"Center for Climate Change Communication","organization":"center-for-climate-change-communication"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2012","source_url":"https://climatecommunication.gmu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/March-2012-and-Nov.-2011-Global-Warmings-Six-Americas.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies six segments of the U.S. population—Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive—and tracks their evolving perceptions of global warming. It finds that while the Alarmed and Concerned are convinced of the reality and human cause of climate change, the Dismissive and Doubtful are not. The study also examines the relationship between personal experience with extreme weather and climate beliefs, trust in information sources, and support for specific energy and climate policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The U.S. adult population is divided into six segments based on climate concern: Alarmed (13%), Concerned (26%), Cautious (29%), Disengaged (6%), Doubtful (15%), and Dismissive (10%) as of March 2012.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a stark divide in beliefs regarding the cause of global warming: 84% of the Alarmed and 70% of the Concerned attribute it to human activities, whereas 68% of the Doubtful and 65% of the Dismissive attribute it to natural changes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Confidence in the ability of humans to successfully reduce global warming is very low across all segments, with 6% or less in each group expressing confidence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Alarmed segment is the most attentive to weather and most likely to perceive that U.S. weather is worsening, with 77% believing it has gotten 'much' or 'somewhat' worse.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A majority of the Alarmed (93%), Concerned (92%), Cautious (74%), and Disengaged (73%) believe global warming is affecting U.S. weather, while 90% of the Dismissive and 66% of the Doubtful disagree.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Trust in climate scientists is higher than trust in other types of scientists for most Americans (73% vs 65%), but this trend is reversed among the Dismissive, where only 29% trust climate scientists.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Broad support exists for three clean energy policies among all groups except the Dismissive: funding renewable energy research, providing tax rebates for energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels, and regulating carbon dioxide.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Alarmed and Dismissive segments exhibit the highest levels of political efficacy, with approximately two-thirds of each group stating they are well-informed about important national political issues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Interpersonal communication about global warming is rare, with 64% of Americans reporting they never discuss the topic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A majority of Americans (68%) believe that media coverage of global warming is distorted by special interest groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"commgmu-000194#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","renewable energy","extreme weather event","climate policy","clean energy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["public opinion survey","longitudinal study","segmentation analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-002511","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-002511","title":"Elections and accountability in South Africa","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2009-06","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper188.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper finds that while South African voters are willing to withdraw support from the incumbent African National Congress (ANC) due to poor performance, they rarely shift that support to opposition parties, often retreating into an 'independent' category instead. This lack of inter-party movement is driven by negative perceptions of opposition parties as exclusive or untrustworthy, as well as low levels of 'cognitive mobilisation' among the electorate, where many voters are 'ritual partisans' or 'apoliticals' rather than sophisticated 'apartisans'. Consequently, traditional sanctioning through elections is weak, and accountability manifests more as a 'selection' process where voters choose the best available option rather than punishing the incumbent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Voters in South Africa demonstrate a willingness to withdraw support from the incumbent party based on performance, but they are unlikely to transfer that support to opposition parties, which weakens the traditional sanctioning function of elections.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of voter trends between 1994 and 2009 reveals a general decline in electoral participation; specifically, the proportion of the eligible voting age population (VAP) voting for the ANC decreased from 53% in 1994 to 38.8% in 2009.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Partisanship in South Africa has fluctuated, with a significant rise in 'non-partisans' or 'floating voters' who make up roughly one-third to one-half of the electorate, including a substantial number of black African voters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Voter support for the ANC is influenced by economic evaluations, with a stronger correlation found for sociotropic evaluations (perceptions of the broader economy) than for egocentric evaluations (personal finances), although the poorest voters are more likely to rely on their own 'pocketbook' situation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electorate is characterized by low 'cognitive mobilisation', with an average of only 10% of voters possessing both the political skills and motivation to engage with politics independently of party cues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A large portion of the electorate consists of 'ritual partisans' (approximately 50%) who are mobilised by habitual party attachments rather than cognitive engagement, making them less likely to punish incumbents based on performance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perceptions of party 'inclusiveness' act as a critical heuristic for voters; viewing the ANC as inclusive was a virtually necessary condition for support in 1994 and 1999, while negative or ambiguous images of opposition parties repel potential supporters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Because traditional sanctioning is weak, electoral accountability in South Africa functions more as 'selection accountability', where voters choose the best available option among perceived alternatives rather than voting specifically to punish the incumbent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-002511#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","bivariate analysis","multivariate analysis"]},{"id":"iai-000472","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iai-000472","title":"Impact of huge highways in the jungle","publisher":{"name":"Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research","organization":"inter-american-institute-for-global-change-research"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/CRN-3076.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"A five-year interdisciplinary study on the Peru-Brazil Inter-Oceanic Highway found that while the road improved infrastructure and food access, it caused biodiversity loss and altered wild rodent populations. In the Madre de Dios region of Peru, researchers found high prevalence of Bartonella (78%) and Leptospira (24%) bacteria in sampled rodents, increasing the risk of lethal infectious diseases for local populations. The study highlights a critical gap in community awareness, as 90% of surveyed residents who saw rodents could not name the diseases they transmit. The report recommends integrated public health strategies and land-use policies that prioritize ecosystem health to mitigate the risks associated with deforestation and agricultural expansion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-000472#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The construction of the Peru-Brazil Inter-Oceanic Highway, a 2,600-kilometer transcontinental route built between 2002 and 2011, resulted in economic and infrastructure benefits but also caused biodiversity loss and transformed fauna dynamics through changes in human land use.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-000472#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the department of Madre de Dios, Peru, the highway's impact on habitat perturbation has altered the distribution of wild rodents, increasing the risk of zoonotic disease transmission to humans. Analysis of 97 rodents across eleven species collected between 2014 and 2015 revealed that 78% were positive for Bartonella bacteria and 24% for Leptospira, both of which can cause lethal infectious diseases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-000472#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant lack of awareness among local populations regarding the health risks posed by rodents. A survey found that 90% of respondents who observed rodents near their homes were unable to identify the diseases these animals transmit, which may lead to unnecessary morbidity and mortality if health professionals do not consider presumptive treatment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-000472#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Local communities perceive a mix of positive and negative impacts from the highway. Positive effects include better access to healthcare, food variety, and employment. Negative effects include increased crime (sex and drug trafficking), road accidents, soil depletion, flooding, and biodiversity loss driven by gold mining, much of which is illegal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-000472#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["biodiversity loss","deforestation","land use","public health"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil","Ecuador","Bolivia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","field study","social survey"]},{"id":"iai-001790","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iai-001790","title":"Expansión de la Frontera Agropecuaria en Argentina y su Impacto Ecológico-Ambiental","publisher":{"name":"Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research","organization":"inter-american-institute-for-global-change-research"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/expansion_frontera_agropecuaria_2010.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the environmental impact of Argentina's agricultural expansion from 1956 to 2005. Key findings include a significant increase in annual crop areas, leading to the loss of native forests and grasslands, particularly in the Chaco and Atlantic Forest regions. While the adoption of no-till farming has reduced soil erosion and the toxicity of pesticides has decreased over time, the expansion has caused a decline in soil phosphorus and carbon stocks, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and reduced the provision of ecosystem services. The report specifically examines the role of soybean cultivation, linking its expansion to deforestation in Northwest Argentina and an increase in pesticide contamination risks, although it notes a favorable energy efficiency for the crop.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The agricultural frontier in Argentina expanded significantly between 1956 and 2005, with the area dedicated to annual crops increasing by more than 60% on average. The most significant percentage increases occurred in the Western Sub-humid Chaco (Chaco Salteño).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural expansion occurred primarily at the expense of native forests and grasslands, with a reduction of 18.4% in forests and 6.8% in grasslands/pastures. The Atlantic Forest, Chaco, and Yungas biomes suffered significant losses, with current persistence estimated at 60%, 75%, and 72% of their 1950s levels, respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The stock of available phosphorus (P) in the soil has declined significantly due to extraction by crops not being compensated by fertilization. In some areas of the Sub-humid Pampa, levels fell below 20 ppm, which is considered a limiting threshold for crop productivity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the agricultural sector increased over time. Total regional emissions rose by 73% between the first and second periods, and by 46% between the second and third periods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The risk of soil erosion has decreased in recent decades due to the rapid replacement of conventional tillage with conservation tillage and no-till farming. No-till area increased from 5 million to 7.5 million hectares during the 1990s.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Pesticide contamination risk has fluctuated; it was highest between 1956-1960 due to high-toxicity chemicals, declined during 1986-1990 with the introduction of less persistent chemicals, and rose again between 2001-2005 due to the expansion of soybean crops.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The expansion of soybean cultivation is strongly linked to deforestation in Northwest Argentina, with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.92 between deforested area and soybean area from 1977 to 2005.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Soybean production shows a favorable energy efficiency, contributing more than one-third of energy production in the last period while accounting for only about 10% of fossil energy consumption.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The provision of ecosystem services has declined in high-value biomes. The Atlantic Forest, Yungas, and Western Sub-humid Chaco were the most affected, while the Pampa region remains relatively poor in its capacity to offer essential ecosystem services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Habitat intervention risk increased across all major agricultural eco-regions. The Pampas experienced the highest index of intervention, rising from 0.33 to 0.59 over the study period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-001790#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","soil erosion","greenhouse gas emissions","carbon sequestration","ecosystem service","biodiversity loss","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["Pampas","Chaco Province","Atlantic Forest","Yungas","Northwest Argentina","Northeast Argentina","People's Republic of China","Japan","Netherlands","United States","Canada","Brazil","Nigeria","Kenya"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","environmental impact assessment","comparative analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001366","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001366","title":"Escuchar la paz: Dimensiones y variaciones en la implementación del Acuerdo Final","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/434d594c-d1fb-480f-b10a-c4042cadb7e4/Escuchar la paz Dimensiones y variaciones en la implementacin del Acuerdo Final.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that while general satisfaction with the 2016 Peace Agreement's implementation increased from 36% in 2019 to 48% in 2021, significant challenges remain. Security perceptions have deteriorated, with 43% of respondents reporting worsening conditions in the 12 months prior to 2021. While the reincorporation of ex-combatants is valued as a policy, deep mistrust persists, with 87% of respondents not trusting former FARC-EP members. The report also highlights a gap between the high value placed on the PDETs and the perceived lack of tangible infrastructure and land titles. Victims' reparation and truth-seeking are highly valued, but only 12.6% of respondents reported receiving reparations in 2021. The study emphasizes the need for regionalized peace agendas and improved state presence in health, education, and security to foster trust and sustainable peace.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"General satisfaction with the implementation of the Peace Agreement rose from 36% in 2019 to 48% in 2021, though this increase is nuanced as the number of people who are 'somewhat' satisfied or 'do not know' also grew.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Security perceptions in PDET territories have worsened, with the percentage of people reporting a deterioration in community security over the previous 12 months increasing from 35% in 2019 to 43% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a stark contrast between the conceptual support for reincorporation and actual trust in ex-combatants; while 92% agree with reincorporation processes, 87% do not trust former FARC-EP members.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Residents of PDET areas generally support the substitution of illicit crops (85.1%) and reject forced eradication, yet fewer than 20% believe the substitution programs are on the right track.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While 59% of respondents believe PDETs will transform their territories, the perception of actual delivery of community goods decreased from 35% in 2019 to 27% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Victims' reparation is highly valued, with 89% agreeing that victims should be repaired, but only 12.6% of respondents reported having received any form of reparation in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a strong preference for a negotiated settlement to the conflict with the ELN, with 86% of respondents favoring this approach, particularly in areas like Arauca (96.4%), Chocó (95.7%), and Catatumbo (92.8%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public investment priorities for PDET residents are centered on health (51.9%), education (29.5%), and roads (14.1%), with the hiring of security forces being the lowest priority.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Trust in national government institutions remains low and has decreased since 2019, while trust in local governments has seen a slight increase, though it remains generally low.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Knowledge of the Peace Agreement is partial; 57.7% of respondents know it through media (primarily television), and 75% are unaware of the 15-year implementation duration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001366#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Catatumbo","Pacífico nariñense","Pacífico medio","Alto Patía-Norte del Cauca","Urabá antioqueño","Arauca Department","Chocó Department","Sierra Nevada de Perijá","Montes de María","Cuenca del Caguán y Piedemonte Caqueteño","Sur de Tolima","Bajo Cauca y Nordeste Antioqueño","Sur de Bolívar","Putumayo Department","Sur Córdoba"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["perception survey","longitudinal study","comparative analysis","qualitative focus groups"]},{"id":"prio-001419","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001419","title":"Give Me Liberty, or Give Me Death! State Repression, Ethnic Grievance and Civil War, 1981-2004","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b7ea1885-a430-44f3-a0a1-79f1392be1c4/Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death State Repression Ethnic Grievance and Civil War 1981-2004.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research analyzes the relationship between state repression of 'empowerment rights' (social, political, and economic liberties) and ethnic fractionalization in predicting civil war onset. Using data from 143 states, the study finds that state repression does not have a direct effect on war onset. However, it discovers a significant conditional effect: in ethnically fractionalized societies, higher levels of state repression actually reduce the probability of civil war, whereas in homogeneous societies, repression increases the risk. These findings challenge 'grievance-based' theories of ethnic conflict, suggesting instead that the opportunity to mobilize—which is constrained by repression—is the primary driver of rebellion in diverse societies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001419#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"State repression of empowerment rights has no direct, statistically significant effect on the onset of civil wars when measured at thresholds of 25 deaths per year or above 1,000 deaths.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001419#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ethnic fractionalization is a statistically significant positive predictor of civil war onset, with a substantive impact comparable to that of per capita income.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001419#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The effect of state repression on civil war onset is conditional on ethnic fractionalization: repression reduces the risk of war in fractionalized societies but increases it in homogeneous ones.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001419#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In ethnically diverse societies, the risk of a large-scale civil war (over 1,000 deaths) is significantly higher when state repression of empowerment rights is low compared to when it is high.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001419#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study's results generally contradict the 'deprived actor' or grievance-based view that a lack of ethnic group rights drives civil war, supporting instead the 'rational actor' view that mobilization opportunities are the key driver.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001419#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Other significant predictors of civil war onset include being an oil exporter, having a larger population, and being a noncontiguous state.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001419#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Republic of the Congo","Malaysia","Sri Lanka","Iraq","Afghanistan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["statistical analysis","comparative political study","longitudinal study"]},{"id":"prio-001525","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001525","title":"Listening to Peace Dimensions and Variations in the Implementation of the Final Peace Agreement in Colombia","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1c5b5e62-90f7-4568-aee4-f7332983c447/Listening to Peace Dimensions and Variations in the Implementation of the Final Peace Agreement in Colombia.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report presents findings from two survey rounds (2019 and 2021) involving over 11,000 citizens in 72 PDET municipalities. While general satisfaction with the Agreement's implementation increased from 36% in 2019 to 48% in 2021, the report identifies a 'story of contrasts.' Residents generally value the Agreement's content and specific tools like reincorporation and crop substitution, but perceive actual implementation as insufficient and unequal across subregions. Security conditions are viewed as deteriorating, and trust in ex-combatants remains very low, hindering reconciliation. The report emphasizes that tangible improvements in security, public works, and reparations are the primary drivers of satisfaction and trust in state institutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"General satisfaction with the implementation of the Peace Agreement rose from 36% in 2019 to 48% in 2021, though this trend was negative in the Catatumbo, Pacific Nariño, Middle Pacific, and Upper Patía-North Cauca subregions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Perceptions of security have worsened, with the percentage of people reporting a deterioration in their community's security over the last 12 months increasing from 35% in 2019 to 43% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While 92% of respondents agree with reincorporation processes and 76% support state benefits for ex-combatants, deep mistrust persists, with 87% stating they do not trust FARC ex-combatants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is strong support for the clarification of truth (68%) and the principle that victims must be redressed (89%), but only 26% believe the implementation of justice and reparation measures is satisfactory.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The PDET is viewed with hope, with 59% believing it will transform their territory, yet the perceived arrival of public works decreased from 35% in 2019 to 27% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Crop substitution is widely supported (85%) and forced eradication is largely rejected (77%), but less than 20% of respondents believe substitution programs are on the right track.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic conditions in PDET regions deteriorated significantly due to COVID-19, with the percentage of people reporting a worsening economic situation doubling from 31.4% in 2019 to 63% in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a strong preference for a negotiated solution to the conflict with the ELN, with 86% of respondents favoring this approach, particularly in Arauca (96.4%), Chocó (95.7%), and Catatumbo (92.8%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Public investment priorities for PDET residents are centered on health (51.9%), education (29.5%), and roads (14.1%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Trust in state institutions remains low, with less than half of respondents trusting the President (23.4%), Congress (12.2%), or state institutions generally (29.5%), while the Catholic Church (61%) and the UN (over 40%) enjoy higher trust.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001525#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","land tenure"],"geography_discussed":["Catatumbo","Pacific Nariño","Middle Pacific","Upper Patía-North Cauca","Urabá Antioqueño","Arauca Department","Chocó Department","South Córdoba","Montes de María","Macarena-Guaviare","Putumayo Department","South Tolima","Caguán Basin and Caquetá Foothills","Sierra Nevada-Perijá","Low Cauca and Northeast of Antioquia","South Bolívar"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["perception survey","longitudinal study","focus groups","econometric modeling"]},{"id":"prio-001818","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001818","title":"Urban Social Disorder 3.0: A global, city-level event dataset of political mobilization and disorder","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/35628c8a-1cec-4e9f-ad1e-4cf70431ba4c/Thomson Bahgat Urdal Buhaug 2022 Urban Social Disorder 3 Global City-level Event Dataset of Political Mobilization and Disorder.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The authors present Urban Social Disorder 3.0, a global event dataset covering 186 cities from 1960-2014, containing 13,324 events. The study finds that global urban social disorder increased after the early 2000s, driven largely by Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Contrary to some previous research, the authors find a positive relationship between city population size and the frequency of lethal disorder events, while urban growth rates show no such association. The analysis also suggests that autocratic regimes may be more effective at suppressing lethal urban disorder than democratic ones.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Urban Social Disorder 3.0 (USD) dataset comprises 13,324 events across 186 cities between 1960 and 2014, focusing primarily on national capitals and major urban centers with populations exceeding 100,000 in 2014.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global urban social disorder followed a trend of increasing frequency from the 1960s to the 1980s, experienced a decline in the 1990s, and rose again after the early 2000s, reaching an average of 26.7 total monthly events and 10.4 lethal monthly events by 2014.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The post-2000 increase in global urban social disorder was primarily driven by growth in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, while Latin America saw a decline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Organized demonstrations are the most common type of urban social disorder globally (29.1%), followed by armed attacks (18.1%), while inter-communal warfare (0.6%) and pro-government demonstrations (1.5%) are the least frequent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of the global sample reveals a positive and significant association between city population size and the rate of urban disorder, although the rate of urban population growth is not associated with the outcome.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study suggests a 'global autocratic peace,' indicating that authoritarian regimes are often more effective at discouraging public dissent and avoiding lethal urban social disorder than democratic regimes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lethal urban disorder is strongly linked to ongoing civil conflict, economic shocks, and lower income levels across various regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001818#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["urbanization","food security","climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Asia","Middle East","Africa","Europe","Latin America","Baghdad","London","Beirut","Paris"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","dataset introduction","longitudinal study","regression analysis"]},{"id":"prio-001859","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001859","title":"Who are the civilians in the wars of South Sudan?","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/db5ba239-9b02-45ec-83cd-8511c85bd83d/Who are the civilians in the wars of South Sudan.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study traces a longitudinal history of violence in South Sudan, arguing that since the colonial period, local populations have been viewed as resources to be managed, exploited, and controlled rather than non-combatants. This logic of violent governance—characterized by forced displacement, collective punishment, and the blurring of lines between military and civilian actors—has persisted through multiple civil wars and continues to influence current conflict dynamics and the effectiveness of international protection efforts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Since the first colonial incursions, local populations in South Sudan have been treated as strategic assets to be managed and exploited, making them key resources for capture and control rather than just targets of violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The distinction between 'military' and 'civilian' is conceptually and empirically unstable in the South Sudanese context, as colonial regimes, independent governments, and rebel groups have developed their own definitions of legitimate targets and non-combatants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Colonial rule under the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium (1899–1956) institutionalized a pattern of extractive and violent control, utilizing 'pacification' campaigns that included burning villages, seizing cattle, and the forced conscription of prisoners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Forced population movement and encampment have been consistent tactics used by both state and rebel actors to weaken opponents, secure cheap labour, and control resources, a practice that predates and mirrors modern Protection of Civilians (PoC) camps.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"During the first civil war (1963–1972) and the second civil war (1983–2005), both the Sudanese government and rebel groups like the Anya-Nya and SPLM/A used collective punishment, the burning of villages, and the creation of 'Peace Villages' to isolate populations from their enemies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The governance of South Sudan has become fundamentally militarized, with political and military power fused; for example, the SPLM/A required military ranks for those in elite civil service positions, and state governors are automatically promoted to brigadier general.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International Protection of Civilians (PoC) camps risk being incorporated into existing local systems of violent governance, as they are often perceived locally as another form of militarized government controlling territory and populations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001859#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Sudan","Malakal","Juba","Blue Nile State","Maban","Kafia Kingi","Nzara","Khartoum","Nuba Mountains","Darfur","Yei","Ethiopia","South Kordofan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["longitudinal study","historical analysis","field study"]},{"id":"saiia-001923","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001923","title":"Building Macroeconomic Resilience Through Counter-Cyclical Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA-PI_26_.BuildingMacroeconomicResiliencepdf-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines macroeconomic resilience in 12 sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on the use of monetary and fiscal instruments to stabilise production and inflation cycles. It identifies commodity price downcycles as the most consistent trigger for economic crises and argues that currency regimes significantly influence a nation's ability to absorb shocks. The author develops the CoMPRA-MERI index to track resilience across seven dimensions: fiscal, monetary, external debt, trade, investment, governance, and human capital. Findings suggest that most countries exhibit procyclical outcomes due to structural constraints, though Uganda is noted as a successful exception in applying countercyclical tools. The report recommends trade diversification and a shift toward more flexible exchange rate regimes to enhance structural resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Commodity price downcycles are the most frequent trigger for socio-economic crises or GDP growth decelerations across the studied cohort, particularly for countries dependent on single exports like Nigeria (oil), Botswana (diamonds), and Mali (gold).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Currency regimes significantly impact growth and stability; members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) with a fixed peg to the euro experienced suppressed per capita GDP growth compared to the rest of the cohort, as the structurally over-valued currency incentivises imports over domestic production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Most countries in the cohort experience procyclical fiscal and monetary outcomes, meaning they lack the capacity or willingness to resist market forces or use tools to counter the business cycle. Uganda is identified as the only country that successfully uses both monetary and fiscal tools countercyclically.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a general lack of coincidence between production and inflation cycles over the short term across the cohort, which complicates the sequencing of policy measures intended to achieve internal macroeconomic balance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"External debt accumulation generally acts as a net drag on GDP growth, with a positive correlation between external debt resilience and GDP growth found in eight of the 12 countries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Governance is a critical driver of resilience, with positive correlations to GDP growth in 10 of the 12 countries in the short term, as it influences investor confidence and policy consistency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While all 12 countries show a structural trend of building generational resilience through human capital formation, in countries with decelerating growth (Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Rwanda), this is negatively correlated with GDP growth, suggesting social spending may contribute to fiscal drag via debt accumulation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001923#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fiscal policy","governance"],"geography_discussed":["Nigeria","South Africa","Tanzania","Uganda","Senegal","Benin","Ghana","Botswana","Kenya","Rwanda","Mali","Togo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["comparative analysis","correlation analysis","index construction","longitudinal study"]}]}