{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["long-range projection"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'long-range projection' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=long-range+projection","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-002631","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002631","title":"WATER FUTURES: ASSESSMENT OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS AND PROBLEMS","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"1997-08","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-WaterFutures-AssessmentOfLongRangePatternsAndProblems-1997.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines future water requirements through a 'Conventional Development Scenario' (CDS), which assumes a continuation of current demographic and economic trends. It finds that global water withdrawals are projected to increase from 3,700 cubic kilometers in 1995 to 5,000 cubic kilometers by 2025 in a mid-range case, with the most significant growth in developing regions. The study introduces several indices—including use-to-resource ratio, reliability, and coping capacity—to map water vulnerability. Results indicate that by 2025, a substantial portion of the world's population will live in water-stressed conditions, particularly in Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. The report argues that this 'business-as-usual' path is unsustainable and proposes a transition toward a sustainable water future based on efficiency, equity, and ecosystem protection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under the mid-range Conventional Development Scenario (CDS), annual global water withdrawal is projected to grow by 35%, increasing from 3,700 cubic kilometers in 1995 to 5,000 cubic kilometers in 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The largest absolute increases in water withdrawals by 2025 are expected in South & East Asia (493 additional cubic kilometers) and China+ (231 additional cubic kilometers).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a significant increase in the population living under water reliability stress (classifications 3 and 4), projected to grow from 3.5 billion in 1995 to approximately 5.3 billion in 2025, representing about 63% of the global population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The number of countries experiencing high use-to-resource stress (classifications 3 and 4) is projected to rise from 41 in 1995 to 53 in 2025, with the affected population increasing from 1.9 billion to 5.3 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite assumed economic growth in the CDS, the number of people in low-income coping capacity classifications is projected to increase from 4.4 billion in 1995 to 5.9 billion in 2025 due to rapid population growth in poor regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Using the Water Resources Vulnerability Index II (WRVI-II), which treats vulnerability in any single dimension as determinative, 90% of the world's population is projected to be vulnerable by 2025, with nearly 50% being highly vulnerable.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report concludes that the Conventional Development Scenario leads to a continuing deterioration of water conditions in already scarce areas and extends water stress to new regions, failing sustainable development criteria.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change sensitivity analysis using MPI and GFDL models suggests that while global runoff changes may cancel out on a gross scale, local disruptions to wetter or drier conditions are likely.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002631#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sustainable development","urbanization","climate change","water distribution system","water pollution"],"geography_discussed":["Asia","North Africa","Middle East","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","vulnerability assessment","long-range projection"]}]}