{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["logit regression"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'logit regression' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=logit+regression","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001760","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001760","title":"Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2009","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9974caf4-6d8e-47f8-a1e0-29aa031e46af/Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The authors argue that traditional country-level conflict analysis fails to account for spatial and temporal variations, as conflicts often occur in peripheral regions and are triggered by sudden events. By combining a global logit regression model with a subnational risk index—incorporating population, socioeconomic status, ethno-political exclusion, distance from the capital, and conflict history—the study maps latent conflict risk across twelve Asian countries. The results demonstrate significant internal variation, highlighting high-risk areas in India, Nepal, and the Philippines, while suggesting that irregular regime changes and previous conflict history are powerful predictors of future violence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Traditional quantitative assessments of civil conflict are limited because they assume conflicts are distributed uniformly across a country, whereas most intrastate armed conflicts actually occur in the periphery, often far from the capital and along international borders.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study's global model identifies that irregular regime changes, such as military coups or assassinations, and ethno-political exclusion of sizable minority populations are significant risk factors for the prevalence of intrastate armed conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most powerful predictor of armed intrastate conflict identified in the global regression analysis is the amount of time that has passed since the previous conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Contrary to some theories, the authors' global model found that natural disasters do not appear to affect the baseline probability of armed conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Subnational analysis reveals high internal variation in conflict risk within Asian countries; for example, India shows high risk in the northwest and northeast (Kashmir, Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland) and around Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Andhra Pradesh, but lower risk in central areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Nepal, the highest conflict hazards are predicted in rural border districts, particularly in the southern Terai belt, driven by economic marginalization and the political exclusion of ethnic groups such as the Madhesis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Philippines, the highest estimated risks are concentrated in Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago due to poverty, peripheral location, and a history of Muslim separatist conflict, as well as in the mountainous Cordilleras region due to the political exclusion of the Igorots.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001760#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["natural disaster"],"geography_discussed":["India","Nepal","Philippines","Indonesia","Sri Lanka","Thailand","Pakistan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","simulation models","spatial analysis","logit regression"]},{"id":"prio-001701","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001701","title":"Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9b582245-5d5e-4085-aff6-21c31ba863b9/Resolving Civil Wars before They Start The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study analyzes 142 self-determination movements across 77 countries to determine the preventive effects of UNSC actions. It finds that direct diplomatic engagement significantly reduces the probability of armed conflict onset. Additionally, while direct force and sanctions show limited or positive correlations with conflict, indirect authorizations of force and sanctions—those applied in a broader regional or state-wide context—act as powerful deterrents, reducing the likelihood of civil war for related self-determination groups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001701#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Direct diplomatic engagement by the UNSC is strongly associated with a decrease in the likelihood of armed conflict in self-determination disputes. Specifically, periods immediately following resolutions containing instructions for diplomatic measures are estimated to be about 60 percent less likely to experience the onset of armed conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001701#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indirect authorizations of new force and sanctions—resolutions that do not explicitly name a specific self-determination movement but address a broader regional or state-wide conflict—have significant deterrent effects. Indirect force authorizations almost entirely eliminate the likelihood of conflict onset, while indirect sanctions reduce it by approximately 40 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001701#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Direct authorizations of new force do not show a statistically significant preventive effect, and direct sanctions are actually positively correlated with an increased likelihood of civil war.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001701#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Passive UNSC actions, including simple condemnations and the reauthorization of existing force mandates, do not have a statistically significant relationship with the onset of armed conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001701#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The preventive effect of diplomacy is not merely a result of managing existing conflicts, as the effect remains robust when the sample is limited to self-determination movements that had never previously participated in a civil war.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001701#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Several state and group-level factors correlate with the likelihood of civil war: increased numbers of movement factions, the presence of ethnic kin groups in neighboring states, and a higher total number of self-determination groups within a state all increase the probability of conflict. Conversely, democracy and higher GDP per capita are associated with a lower likelihood of onset.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001701#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["North Macedonia","Cyprus","Afghanistan","Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia","Democratic Republic of the Congo","South Africa","Nicaragua","Iran","Iraq"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","event-history modeling","logit regression"]}]}