{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["least-cost optimisation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'least-cost optimisation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=least-cost+optimisation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"wwfza-000191","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwfza-000191","title":"Informing an Illustrative People’s Energy Planning process Final Report","publisher":{"name":"WWF South Africa","organization":"wwf-south-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-06","source_url":"https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/esrg_ipep_final-technical-report_1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report uses the SATIMGE modelling framework to compare a least-cost Reference Case against various Policy Scenarios and an 'Ideal Energy Scenario' for South Africa. The Ideal Energy Scenario targets net zero CO2 by 2050 with a cumulative GHG limit of 8 Gt CO2-eq, featuring a systemic shift to 80% public transport, expanded social provisioning for low-income households (including 6.5 million solar water heaters), and a domestic clean energy manufacturing sector with 85% local content. Results indicate that while total system investment costs increase, an affordable and socially inclusive transition is possible, with energy sector employment increasing due to localisation measures, despite a slight relative decline in economy-wide employment compared to the Reference Case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Ideal Energy Scenario achieves an economy-wide net zero CO2 emissions target by 2050, constrained by a cumulative GHG emissions limit of 8 Gt CO2-eq between 2021 and 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Social provisioning in the Ideal Energy Scenario targets low-income households through a ramp-up in the free basic electricity (FBE) subsidy and the deployment of 6.5 million solar water heaters (SWHs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transport reform in the Ideal Energy Scenario aims for a systemic shift from private to public transport, targeting an 80% public transport share by 2050, alongside significant electrification of passenger and freight transport.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To support economic resilience and job creation, the Ideal Energy Scenario incorporates a localisation component targeting up to 85% local content in electricity technology supply chains, such as battery storage and solar PV, by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electricity system in the Ideal Energy Scenario is dominated by wind and solar PV, with no new nuclear capacity added and gas serving only as a limited backup and peaking resource.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Modelling indicates that while total energy system costs increase in absolute terms, they remain manageable and do not differ significantly from the Reference Case, with savings realized through enhanced energy efficiency in transport and industry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Ideal Energy Scenario results in a slight drop in economic growth relative to the Reference Case, but energy sector-specific employment increases due to the localisation of the clean electricity value chain.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The achievement of net zero in the Ideal Energy Scenario relies on the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in key sectors, which introduces risks regarding technology cost, availability, and performance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Ideal Energy Scenario, bioenergy is restricted to the use of alien invasive plant species only to mitigate risks to water systems, land use, and biodiversity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Big Gas' policy scenario, which accelerates the availability of the Ibhubesi resource to 2027, increases short-term gas consumption but results in only a marginal increase in the long term by 2050 compared to the Reference Case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwfza-000191#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon neutrality","greenhouse gas emissions","energy efficiency","renewable energy","photovoltaics","wind power","battery energy storage system","electric vehicle","public transport","green hydrogen","carbon capture and storage","bioenergy","energy poverty","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["Northern Cape","KwaZulu-Natal","Limpopo","Western Cape","Eastern Cape","Gauteng","Mpumalanga","Free State","North West"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","least-cost optimisation","integrated energy-economy modelling","sensitivity analysis"]},{"id":"sei-002151","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002151","title":"The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2020 - 2050","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-10","source_url":"https://leap.sei.org/documents/AEO7.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7) analyzes energy demand, supply, and electricity generation across the ASEAN region through four scenarios: Baseline, AMS Targets (ATS), APAEC Targets (APS), and Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO). It finds that without policy intervention, energy demand will triple by 2050 and fossil fuels will continue to dominate. However, implementing national and regional policies can significantly reduce total final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The report emphasizes the need for increased energy efficiency, higher renewable energy penetration, and regional grid interconnection to ensure energy security and sustainability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under the Baseline Scenario, regional energy demand is projected to triple by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) reaching 1,281.7 Mtoe.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant energy source in the Baseline Scenario, with oil accounting for 47.4% of TFEC, electricity for 20.3%, coal for 14.5%, and bioenergy for 9.2% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The region is projected to become a net importer of natural gas by 2025 and coal by 2039 if no significant new discoveries or infrastructure additions occur.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing regional policies in the APAEC Target Scenario (APS) could reduce TFEC by 53.7% by 2050 compared to the Baseline Scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"ASEAN is projected to miss its regional target of 23% renewable energy (RE) in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) by 2025, with the AMS Target Scenario (ATS) predicting only 17.5%, leaving a 5.5% gap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario suggests a power system that costs USD 174.7 billion less than the APS over the 2021-2050 period, though it results in a 5.3% lower share of RE in TPES by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy intensity reduction is projected to reach 29.2% by 2025 under ATS, which falls short of the 32% regional target set by APAEC.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The APS scenario is projected to create up to 5.5 million new jobs by 2050, with 67% of these in hydropower and 10% in geothermal construction, operation, and maintenance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biofuel production in the APS scenario would require approximately 5.6 million hectares of land for oil palm and 3.2 million hectares for sugar cane.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LCO Scenario identifies several cost-effective interconnection projects to be operational by 2025, including lines between Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra, Sarawak and Brunei Darussalam, Lao PDR and Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar, and Thailand and Cambodia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Universal electrification in ASEAN is projected to be achieved by 2040 under the ATS and APS scenarios, with Cambodia being the final country to reach this target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Clean cooking access is projected to reach only 90.28% by 2050 under the APS scenario, failing to meet the SDG7 target of 100% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The social cost of energy in 2050 is projected to be USD 5,457 billion in the Baseline Scenario, but could be reduced to USD 2,358 billion under the APS scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-13","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LCO Scenario introduces nuclear energy into the region's power mix, with 5.2 GW deployed by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002151#insight-14","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy efficiency","renewable energy","greenhouse gas emissions","energy security","energy transition","electric vehicle","biofuel","hydropower","geothermal energy","solar energy","wind power","nuclear power","carbon capture and storage","clean cooking","electrification","climate finance","energy storage"],"geography_discussed":["Brunei","Cambodia","Indonesia","Laos","Malaysia","Myanmar","Philippines","Singapore","Thailand","Vietnam"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario analysis","bottom-up modeling","least-cost optimisation","decomposition analysis"]}]}