{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["least-cost analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'least-cost analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=least-cost+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"seforall-000172","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/seforall-000172","title":"MADAGASCAR Integrated Energy Access Planning ELECTRIFICATION REPORT","publisher":{"name":"Sustainable Energy for All","organization":"sustainable-energy-for-all"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-06","source_url":"https://www.seforall.org/system/files/2024-07/report-madagascar-iep_electrification-en.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Madagascar Integrated Energy Access Planning (IEP) Electrification Report outlines a strategy to reach universal electricity access. It identifies a baseline scenario for 2030 and a conservative scenario for 2040. The plan relies on four primary modalities: grid densification, grid expansion, mini-grids (MV and LV), and standalone solar systems (SSS). SSS is the dominant modality, projected to serve 52% of the population by 2030. The report provides detailed geospatial modelling for project identification, cost assumptions for infrastructure, and financing requirements, estimating a total CAPEX of over $7 billion for the 2030 goal. It also assesses the potential for small-scale hydropower to support off-grid mini-grids, particularly on the eastern coast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"As of 2023, the estimated electrification rate in Madagascar is approximately 35%, with over 18 million people lacking electricity access.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve universal access by 2030, Madagascar must add 2.6 million customers to the JIRAMA grids and 7.6 million off-grid customers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Standalone solar systems (SSS) are the primary modality for universal access, projected to serve 5,713,204 connections by 2030, representing 52% of the total population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Grid densification is identified as the most financially efficient modality, with an estimated CAPEX of just under $560 million to add 1.6 million connections, accounting for 14% of total future required connections.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The plan identifies 371 MV mini-grids and 2,852 LV mini-grid candidates; MV mini-grids are often 'grid-edge' systems in peri-urban areas that exceed the 15 km grid expansion limit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Small-scale hydropower potential was identified for 26 MV mini-grids, primarily on the eastern coast where rainfall is higher and seasonal variation is lower.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"JIRAMA operates under severe financial distress, with tariffs averaging USD 0.12 per kWh, which is roughly half the cost of generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000172#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Mini-grids","photovoltaics","small hydro","battery energy storage system","Levelized cost of energy","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Antananarivo","Fianarantsoa","Toamasina"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["least-cost analysis","geospatial modelling","financing requirements analysis","sensitivity analysis"]},{"id":"cer-001479","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cer-001479","title":"Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016","publisher":{"name":"Centre for Environmental Rights","organization":"centre-for-environmental-rights"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2017-04-03","source_url":"https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/170403-CSIR-comments-on-the-IRP.pdf?x21779","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The CSIR's analysis of South Africa's Draft IRP 2016 concludes that a 'Least Cost' scenario—prioritising solar PV, wind, and flexible power—is significantly cheaper, creates more jobs, and emits less CO2 than the government's Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios. The report argues that the Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar and wind without techno-economic justification, which artificially inflates costs and pushes the system toward new coal or nuclear investment. By 2050, the CSIR finds that a renewable energy share of over 70% is cost-optimal. Technical assessments on system inertia and transmission infrastructure indicate that the costs of maintaining stability in a high-renewable system are low, representing less than 1% of total power generation costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A 'Least Cost' electricity mix for South Africa by 2050 is dominated by solar PV, wind, and flexible power (such as gas, CSP, hydro, and biogas), with a renewable energy share of over 70% being cost-optimal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CSIR's Least Cost scenario is significantly more efficient than the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case by 2050, costing R70 billion per year less, emitting half the CO2, consuming 60% less water, and providing 10% more jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar PV (1,000 MW) and wind (1,800 MW) that the CSIR claims lack 'techno-economic justification' and result in the model selecting more expensive technologies like coal or nuclear.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'Decarbonised' scenario, which targets a 95% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, is estimated to be R50 billion per year more costly than the Least Cost scenario but uses 30% less water and provides 5% more jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Technical analysis of system frequency stability shows that the cost of implementing rotating stabiliser devices (flywheels) to manage low-inertia systems is very low, remaining below 1% of the total cost of power generation by 2050 across all scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"High-level estimates for transmission network infrastructure indicate that the Least Cost scenario is R20-30 billion per year cheaper than the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CSIR's medium-term outlook to 2030 suggests that the least-cost technology choices (wind, solar PV, peaking, and gas) are insensitive to demand forecast assumptions, which only affect the scale of build-out.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-001479#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["renewable energy","photovoltaics","wind power","natural gas","nuclear power","coal power","decarbonization","carbon dioxide emissions","energy storage","electric vehicle","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Ireland","Germany","United States","Denmark"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity expansion planning","least-cost analysis","scenario modelling","sensitivity analysis","technical stability assessment"]},{"id":"seforall-000154","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/seforall-000154","title":"Integrated Energy Plan","publisher":{"name":"Sustainable Energy for All","organization":"sustainable-energy-for-all"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.seforall.org/system/files/2023-04/Malawi%20IEP%20-%20Electrification%20Report_FINAL_compressed.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Malawi Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) outlines a strategy to move from 12.5% electricity access in 2022 to universal access by 2030 for an estimated 5.5 million households. The plan proposes a mix of grid-based solutions (64% of new growth) and off-grid solutions (26%), with a heavy emphasis on the Central and Southern regions. It identifies significant financing gaps and suggests that adopting international competitive bidding and low-cost rural design standards could reduce grid expansion costs from $3.1 billion (BAU) to $1.8 billion. The report also assesses the electrification of public facilities, including 1,058 health clinics and 7,123 schools, and examines the impact of e-cooking on future energy demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"As of 2022, approximately 3.7 million households (16.6 million people) in Malawi lacked electricity service, with ESCOM and off-grid providers serving roughly 750,000 households.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To reach universal access by 2030 for a projected 5.5 million households, the plan requires an average growth of 607,567 connections per year, peaking at 1.17 million in 2028.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2030 universal electrification scenario allocates new connections as follows: 42% via grid expansion, 22% via grid densification, 19% via standalone solar home systems (SHS), and 7% via mini-grids.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Grid expansion costs vary significantly by procurement and design scenario: the Business as Usual (BAU) case is estimated at $3.1 billion, while International Competitive Bidding (ICB) reduces this to $2.1 billion, and low-cost design standards further reduce it to $1.8 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The geospatial analysis identified 1,688 potential mini-grid sites, with 72% requiring solar plant sizes of 30 kW or less, which may necessitate subsidies to attract private investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Electrification planning for public facilities indicates that of 1,058 health facilities, 869 are already grid-connected, while for 7,123 schools, 3,123 are grid-connected.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The adoption of e-cooking is projected to increase electricity demand from 184 GWh/year in 2022 to 1,099 GWh/year by 2030, primarily affecting urban and peri-urban areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mini-grid costs per connection are more competitive in larger systems ($1,032) compared to average systems ($1,355), though tariffs remain significantly higher than ESCOM's subsidized residential rate of $0.064/kWh.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"seforall-000154#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Mini-grids","renewable energy","photovoltaics","climate finance","rural electrification"],"geography_discussed":["Northern Region","Central Region","Southern Region","Mozambique","Democratic Republic of the Congo"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["geospatial analysis","least-cost analysis","demand projection","financing assessment"]}]}