{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["hydrological modelling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'hydrological modelling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":5,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=hydrological+modelling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-001137","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001137","title":"Hydro-ecological monitoring of high-elevation wetlands in the Katari watershed, Bolivia","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2021-10","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211027c-burton-fernandez-katari-wetlands-2109g.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document describes the use of a WEAP model and a 36-year remote sensing dataset (1984–2020) to analyze bofedales wetlands in Bolivia's Katari watershed. It identifies that while glacier retreat in the Cordillera Real is evident, bofedales currently show a greening trend potentially due to increased meltwater and higher temperatures, though long-term decline is expected as aquifer recharge drops. The study also notes that human activities, including overgrazing and mining-related groundwater extraction, are deteriorating wetland health.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001137#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Bofedales wetlands in Bolivia, particularly in the La Paz-El Alto region, are deteriorating due to human pressures including urbanization, overgrazing, dam construction, and groundwater extractions for mining.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001137#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Remote sensing analysis of 222 satellite images from 1984 to 2020 shows that wetlands below 4,200 metres are greener and more productive than those above 4,600 metres, likely due to more constant groundwater outflows and higher temperatures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001137#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change has caused a dramatic loss of glacier area in the Cordillera Real; however, bofedales currently exhibit a general greening trend, possibly due to increased rainwater and snow melt.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001137#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite current greening, climate change is expected to negatively impact the wetlands in the long term as precipitation patterns alter and glacier retreat leads to a decline in aquifer recharge.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001137#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["glacier retreat","groundwater recharge","hydrological model","remote sensing"],"geography_discussed":["La Paz-El Alto","Titicaca","Peru","Cordillera Real","Andes"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["remote sensing analysis","hydrological modelling"]},{"id":"iisd-003229","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003229","title":"Manitoba Prairie Lakes: Mass balance budget for nutrient management at Pelican Lake, Manitoba","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2017-10","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/manitoba-prairie-lakes-mass-pelican-lake.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study establishes a nutrient mass balance for Pelican Lake, Manitoba, finding that the lake acts as a net sink for phosphorus and a net source of nitrogen. External nutrient loads are strongly linked to surface hydrology and agricultural land use, with internal recycling from sediments contributing significantly to phosphorus levels. The findings suggest that remediation should focus on high-agricultural sub-catchments and the regulation of the Pembina River inlet dam.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Pelican Lake is a net sink for phosphorus, retaining approximately 70 per cent of external inputs, with the majority of this accumulation occurring in the water column.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The lake acts as a net source of nitrogen to the surrounding environment, including groundwater, largely due to biological processes such as N2 fixation driven by high phosphorus concentrations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Internal phosphorus recycling from lake sediments and macrophytes contributed approximately 10 per cent of external phosphorus loads, with sediments acting as a net source of P to the water column during the study period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"External nutrient fluxes are strongly tied to surface hydrology, indicating that climate variability and increased rainfall have significantly contributed to nutrient inputs in recent years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nutrient loading is not primarily determined by catchment size but by land use; the highest nutrient loads originate from the sub-catchment with the highest percentage of agricultural area (PL05), rather than the largest catchment by area.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant portion of phosphorus loading occurs during spring runoff events, specifically when the PL08A-inlet dam is opened to divert water from the Pembina River; approximately 45 per cent of the phosphorus load during the study period was delivered during the March dam opening.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Groundwater serves as a major output for nitrogen, with 103,007 kg of total nitrogen moving from the lake to aquifers, accounting for 93 per cent of the total outflow nitrogen load.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003229#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate variability","water quality"],"geography_discussed":["Pembina River","Lake Winnipeg basin"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["mass balance budget","hydrological modelling","water quality assessment"]},{"id":"sei-001849","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001849","title":"Biodiversity, wetland ecosystems and flood risks: Implications of hydropower expansion on the Magdalena River","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2015","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-TNC-USAID-DB-2015-Mompos-Depression-WEAP.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines how increasing the Degree of Regulation (DOR) through hydropower dams in the Magdalena River Basin affects the Mompos Depression. While current regulation is low, the addition of 30 planned projects could increase the DOR from 5% to 30%, significantly altering seasonal and low flows critical for biodiversity. The analysis finds that these dams would not protect against extreme floods, as safety releases during peak flows are necessary, and that reducing lateral connectivity via levees could increase peak flows downstream in cities like Barranquilla.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001849#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Mompos Depression is a tectonic basin covering approximately 32,198 km², representing 11.8% of the total Magdalena basin area, and is characterized by high biodiversity, including over 200 indigenous fish species.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001849#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Colombia's planned hydropower expansion is concentrated in the Magdalena basin, which already provides 70% of the country's hydropower. In addition to 26 existing reservoirs and two under construction, 30 large projects are planned for the next decade, which could add 7.64 GW of installed capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001849#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Degree of Regulation (DOR) upstream of the Mompos Depression is estimated at 5% of average annual runoff based on 2010 storage capacity; however, completing all 30 planned projects would increase the DOR to approximately 30%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001849#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"High levels of hydropower regulation (30% DOR) are projected to reduce seasonal flows and virtually eliminate low flows during dry months, which could severely impact ecosystem functions, fish and bird reproduction, and riparian vegetation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001849#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Hydropower dams are unlikely to mitigate extreme flood risks for downstream communities because reservoirs must release water during peak flow conditions to ensure dam safety.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001849#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Loss of lateral connectivity between the river and wetlands due to roads or levees could increase peak flows downstream of the Mompos Depression by up to 900 m³/s (+7.2%) during extreme wet conditions, adding 9.4 billion m³ of floodwaters to areas such as Barranquilla.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001849#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hydropower","Flood risk management","biodiversity","water management","climate change","La Niña"],"geography_discussed":["Barranquilla","Andes"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["hydrological modelling","impact assessment"]},{"id":"iisd-001266","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001266","title":"CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR WATER AND AGRICULTURE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: FOCUS ON THE YAQUE DEL SUR BASIN","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2013-01","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_dom_republic.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies significant climate risks in the Yaque del Sur watershed, where high exposure to hurricanes, floods, and droughts intersects with high poverty and low adaptive capacity. Modelling suggests that by 2050, the annual water deficit could reach 519 million m3, threatening key crops like maize and tomatoes. While the Dominican Republic has established disaster risk and climate change frameworks, the report finds a lack of coordination between these structures and deficiencies in data sharing. Recommended priority actions include shifting to drought-resilient crops (sorghum and mangoes), increasing irrigation efficiency from 20% to 45%, and implementing payment for ecosystem services to promote reforestation in the upper watershed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Yaque del Sur watershed is the third-largest in the Dominican Republic and faces extreme water stress, serving as one of the country's poorest regions where agriculture is a primary livelihood.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Observed climate trends since 1960 show an average temperature increase of approximately 0.45°C and a disputed rainfall decrease of about 4.5% per decade.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water scarcity is projected to worsen significantly, with the model estimating a water deficit that could increase from 343 million m3 in 2010 to 519 million m3 by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Key crops in the region, specifically tomatoes, maize, and chilies, are expected to face increased water deficits of approximately 200 mm over their crop cycles due to rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adaptive capacity in the Yaque del Sur watershed is insufficient due to low income, low education levels, and lack of land ownership, which hinders investment in sustainable farming.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical lack of formal coordination between the National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Response (SNPMRD) and the agencies responsible for climate change adaptation, such as the Council for Climate Change and the Clean Development Mechanism (CNCCMDL).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate and hazard data in the Dominican Republic are patchy, inconsistent, and difficult to access because different agencies, such as INDRHI and the National Meteorological Office, do not openly share information.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Replacing maize with sorghum and plantains with mangoes in the lower watershed could reduce crop evapotranspiration by 16% for the entire watershed, saving approximately 87.2 million m3 of water in specific sub-catchment areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increasing irrigation efficiency from the current 20% to 45% could reduce agricultural water demand by approximately 250 million m3 annually, potentially reducing the projected 2050 water deficit by about 50% in large-scale irrigation areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001266#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water scarcity","agriculture","tropical cyclone","flood","drought","agroforestry","climate change adaptation","disaster risk reduction","crop yield","reforestation"],"geography_discussed":["Honduras","Nicaragua","Kenya","Niger","Peru","Uganda","Santa Cruz de Barahona"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["climate risk assessment","capacity assessment","participatory scenario development","hydrological modelling","crop modelling"]},{"id":"sei-002328","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002328","title":"Impact assessment of agricultural water management interventions in the Jaldhaka watershed","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2012-02","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Air-land-water-resources/agwater/impact-assessment.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report uses the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a lumped groundwater model to evaluate the Jaldhaka watershed's current hydrology and the effects of shifting land use or increasing groundwater pumping. It finds that while both a deforestation scenario and an electrification scenario increase rice production, deforestation significantly raises flood risks. Electrification increases productivity but may lead to groundwater depletion of up to 8 meters in downstream areas under a 100% adoption scenario, though this may be partially offset by induced recharge from perennial rivers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Jaldhaka watershed is characterized by high humidity and a high rainfall-to-reference evapotranspiration ratio of 2.5, with approximately 73% of rainfall contributing to streamflows and only 26% to evapotranspiration.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current groundwater exploitation in the watershed is considered sustainable on average, as the withdrawal of 145 mm/year is lower than the estimated groundwater recharge of 571 mm/year (± 158 mm/year).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A deforestation scenario, where upstream forests are replaced by rainfed rice or bare land, increases the risk of damaging flood events by raising peak flows and increasing direct surface runoff.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Deforestation leads to a reduction in groundwater recharge and baseflow because agricultural soils are less permeable than forest soils.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the electrification scenario, increasing groundwater pumping for summer rice cultivation can lead to significant groundwater depletion, with levels potentially dropping by 8 meters in downstream areas under the 100% sub-scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electrification scenario reduces groundwater baseflow by approximately 15% in the 50% sub-scenario and by 30% in the 100% sub-scenario, though the overall impact on annual river flow remains insignificant.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Both the deforestation and electrification scenarios increase total rice production, but electrification is deemed preferable as it increases productivity rather than simply expanding agricultural land at the expense of forests.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests that the 25% or 50% electrification sub-scenarios are the most attainable due to the high costs for government infrastructure and farmers' equipment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002328#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","groundwater recharge","surface runoff","flood risk","agricultural irrigation"],"geography_discussed":["Cooch Behar","Jalpaiguri","Kurigram"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["impact assessment","scenario analysis","hydrological modelling"]}]}