{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["horizon scanning"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'horizon scanning' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=horizon+scanning","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-001867","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001867","title":"20 State Futures in the Global South","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-03-29","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"There is a significant disconnect between political participation and governance capacity in some Global South regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, relatively high scores in 'Voice and Accountability' have not led to stronger 'Government Effectiveness' or 'Regulatory Quality', a phenomenon described as 'premature democratisation'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global insecurity is escalating, with state-based conflicts reaching their highest number since 1946. In 2023, 59 state-based conflicts were recorded across 34 countries, with Africa seeing its number of such conflicts nearly double between 2013 and 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Global South is facing a structural threat from a global public debt crisis. In 2023, global public debt reached US$97 trillion; over 40% of the world's population lives in countries where interest payments exceed investments in health or education.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Digital governance is increasingly characterized by a paradox of external dependency and internal repression. While states struggle with the influence of foreign tech platforms, there is a rising trend of state-sponsored internet shutdowns, with 296 shutdowns recorded across 54 countries in 2024.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Inequality acts as a systemic force that undermines institutional legitimacy and social cohesion. This is evident in the 'Growth World' scenario, where states prioritize economic elites and investors, leading to 'exclusion by design' for rural and marginalized communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"State legitimacy in the Global South is shifting toward a 'governance as delivery' model, where citizens judge governments by tangible results rather than procedural or ideological norms. This risks creating a 'transactional form of legitimacy' that may sideline democratic accountability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies four potential state archetypes based on global scenarios: the 'dealmaker' (prioritizing growth and investor confidence), the 'system-builder' (focusing on resilience and inclusive reform), the 'fractured state' (characterized by hybrid, contested authority), and the 'collapsed state' (where governance is reduced to coercion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is a systemic stressor that forces states to balance the 'just energy transition' with economic stability. Many Global South states face a dilemma where abrupt shifts from fossil fuels could destabilize economies and fuel social unrest.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001867#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","just transition","climate finance","climate change vulnerability","environmental governance","renewable energy","biodiversity loss","critical minerals"],"geography_discussed":["sub-Saharan Africa","Middle East and North Africa","Latin America and the Caribbean","Central Asia","South Asia","Southeast Asia","East Asia","Global North","People's Republic of China","India","Brazil","Indonesia","Vietnam","Kenya","Rwanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["horizon scanning","scenario planning","quantitative analysis","comparative study"]},{"id":"saiia-001875","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001875","title":"4IR and Water-smart Agriculture in Southern Africa: A Watch List of Key Technological Advances","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020-08","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Policy-Insights-91-du-Preez.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The policy brief examines how 4IR technologies—specifically biotechnology, precision agriculture, and controlled-environment agriculture—can enhance water-smart farming in Southern Africa. It highlights the potential of CRISPR for drought-resistant crops, the use of remote sensing and AI for small-scale farmer decision-making, and the promise of vertical farming to bypass climatic limitations, while noting challenges related to energy efficiency and regulatory frameworks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001875#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Gene-editing technologies, specifically CRISPR, offer a faster, cheaper, and more accessible alternative to transgenic modification for developing drought-resistant cultivars and breeds, as they do not introduce foreign genes and are less controlled by a few large companies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001875#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Precision agriculture utilizing geospatial technologies, such as drones and satellites, allows for the detection of crop stress and the monitoring of soil moisture and nitrogen, which can be communicated to small-scale farmers via basic interfaces like SMS or USSD.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001875#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Advances in connectivity, such as low-power wide-area networks (LPWAN) and satellite broadband, are addressing the cost and energy barriers that previously hindered the adoption of IoT and sensor networks for rural small-scale farmers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001875#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Controlled-environment agriculture, including vertical farming and hydroponics, can eliminate seasonal and climatic constraints on farming, though it is currently limited to niche crops and remains energy-intensive.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001875#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The integration of AI and advanced data science is enabling new financial products for climate risk management, such as weather index insurance and risk pooling mechanisms like the Africa Risk Capacity (ARC).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001875#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation","gene editing","precision agriculture","remote sensing","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Zimbabwe","South Africa","Botswana","Lesotho","Mozambique","Namibia","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Madagascar","Seychelles","Mauritius","Kenya","Tanzania","Ethiopia","Nigeria"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["horizon scanning","policy analysis"]}]}