{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["foresight exercise"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'foresight exercise' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=foresight+exercise","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"costratri-000111","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/costratri-000111","title":"Fires and Falsehoods in California","publisher":{"name":"The Council on Strategic Risks","organization":"the-council-on-strategic-risks"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-04-20","source_url":"https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/04/20/fires-and-falsehoods-in-california/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Council on Strategic Risks describes a workshop in California that explored how extreme weather events, such as wildfires and droughts, can be leveraged by opportunistic actors to spread mis- and disinformation. The report identifies key uncertainties regarding generative AI, institutional capacity, and public trust, and presents three divergent future scenarios for the state: a 'muddling through' crisis, a geopolitical collapse triggered by conflict in the Pacific, and a positive social transformation in water management. It concludes that information manipulation is a persistent risk to disaster response and national security, necessitating cross-sector partnerships for resilience.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000111#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"California's high economic value, strategic military importance, and vulnerability to climate impacts like wildfires and drought make it a primary target for mis- and disinformation that can undermine national security and social cohesion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000111#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Information manipulation affects every phase of disaster management, as evidenced by the 2025 LA wildfires where misleading narratives, some promoted by the President, hindered response efforts and subsequent recovery policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000111#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The workshop identified three potential future trajectories for California through 2030: 'Continuity', where a major event like the Olympics is disrupted by wildfire; 'Collapse', where geopolitical conflict over Taiwan triggers hybrid warfare and cyber attacks in the state; and 'Transformation', where a drought leads to a positive social tipping point and the creation of a 'Western Water Alliance'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000111#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To mitigate these risks, the report suggests establishing cross-sector partnerships, such as joint public-private-academic verification mechanisms and new collaborations between CAL FIRE and military communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000111#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["wildfire","drought","climate resilience","climate change disinformation","national security","water management","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Taiwan","North Korea","Florida"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["foresight exercise","scenario analysis"]}]}