{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["fiscal modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'fiscal modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":3,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=fiscal+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iejza-000227","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000227","title":"Ukuhlahlela indlela eya kwimali esiseko yenyanga nenyanga","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"sw","date_published":"2023-11","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-isiXhosa.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document presents three implementation pathways (low, medium, and high levels) for a UBIG in South Africa, arguing that such a grant would reduce poverty and stimulate economic growth. It details the fiscal impact, suggesting that while gross costs are high, net costs are lower due to VAT returns and proposed progressive taxes, including a social security tax and wealth taxes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000227#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) and Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS) developed three pathways for UBIG implementation from 2023 to 2030, ranging from a low to a high level of grant value and coverage. All three models target individuals aged 18 to 59 without conditions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000227#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of UBIG is projected to improve South Africa's GDP growth from a baseline of 2.2% to between 2.8% and 3.5% by 2030, while reducing poverty levels to a third over the next eight years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000227#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The gross cost of providing a UBIG at the Food Poverty Line (FPL) of R624 per month is R255 billion annually, though actual costs are estimated between R153 billion and R204 billion because an estimated 20% to 40% of eligible people may not apply.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000227#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Net costs for UBIG could be reduced to 50% of gross costs through a combination of VAT returns, a proposed social security tax (SST) that could cover 25% of costs, and other progressive taxes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000227#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Specific funding mechanisms to support UBIG include a 1% wealth tax on the wealthiest (estimated at R143 billion annually), a 25% luxury VAT (estimated at R9 billion annually), and a 0.1% Financial Transactions Tax (estimated at R41 billion annually).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000227#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["poverty reduction","fiscal policy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal modeling","economic impact assessment"]},{"id":"iejza-000401","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000401","title":"Ukwakha imodeli yemizila yezimali yemali engenayo eyisisekelo","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"sw","date_published":"2023-11","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-isiZulu.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines three financial pathways (low, medium, and high effort) to implement a Universal Basic Income Guarantee (UBIG) for South Africans aged 18 to 59. Using a simulation model developed with Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS), the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) argues that a UBIG is fiscally sustainable and would stimulate economic growth, reduce poverty, and lower unemployment. The analysis suggests that while gross costs are high, the net cost is significantly reduced by VAT returns and a proposed social security tax (SST). Funding mechanisms include progressive wealth taxes on the top 1% of the population, luxury VAT, and the reduction of tax subsidies for pensions and medical aid.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000401#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The simulation model identifies three implementation pathways for UBIG from 2023 to 2030, categorized by effort levels based on the benefit amount and the number of recipients. All three scenarios provide unconditional grants to individuals aged 18 to 59.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000401#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing a UBIG is projected to increase GDP growth from a baseline of 2.2% to between 2.8% and 3.5% by 2030, while reducing poverty levels by up to two-thirds over eight years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000401#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The gross annual cost of a UBIG set at the 2022 Food Poverty Line (R624 per month) is estimated at R255 billion, though actual costs are expected to be between R153 billion and R204 billion because only 60% to 80% of eligible people are projected to apply.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000401#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net cost of the program is estimated to be 50% lower than the gross cost due to direct returns via VAT and a proposed social security tax (SST), where high earners pay more than they receive in benefits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000401#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Proposed funding sources to ensure fiscal sustainability include a wealth tax on the top 1% (potentially raising R143 billion annually), a 25% luxury VAT (raising R9 billion annually), a Financial Transactions Tax (R41 billion annually), and a Resource Rent Tax (over R38 billion annually).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000401#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fiscal policy","poverty reduction","economic growth"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal modeling","economic simulation"]},{"id":"iejza-000278","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000278","title":"Tax","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2018-08","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Stream-2-Policy-Brief-3-Tax-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) identifies four critical failures in South Africa's tax management: significant revenue shortfalls (approximately R50bn in 2018), the undermining of the South African Revenue Service (SARS) by corruption and state capture, a tax mix that under-taxes wealth and corporate income, and high levels of illicit financial flows. The brief proposes increasing Personal Income Tax (PIT) and Corporate Income Tax (CIT) rates, introducing a permanent net wealth tax (0.5%-2.5%), and expanding VAT zero-rating for 23 categories of essential goods to support low-income households. To recover lost revenue, the IEJ recommends revitalizing SARS through a Presidential Commission, reintroducing a special priority crime unit, and increasing transparency of corporate and offshore structures. These measures are intended to fund a fiscal stimulus, public employment guarantees, and social services to enhance job creation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"South Africa's tax system is characterized by four primary failures: a revenue shortfall of approximately R50bn in the 2018 National Budget, the erosion of SARS's administrative capacity due to corruption and state capture, a tax mix that is not sufficiently progressive regarding wealth and corporate income, and the prevalence of illicit financial flows and tax evasion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increasing Personal Income Tax (PIT) could generate significant additional revenue. Scenario 1, raising rates for those earning over R500,000, could raise R27.2bn (R17.7bn adjusted for elasticity), while Scenario 2, raising the top three rates, could raise R47.4bn (R30.8bn adjusted for elasticity).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adjusting Corporate Income Tax (CIT) rates between 30% and 35% could raise between R4.1bn and R43.4bn, even if taxable income falls by 5% due to the rate increase.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The brief proposes several wealth and luxury tax measures, including a permanent net wealth tax of 0.5%-2.5%, raising the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) inclusion rate to 100%, implementing a land property tax on vacant land, and increasing ad valorem excise duties on luxury goods.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To support poor households and advance rights to health and education, the IEJ recommends reducing VAT to 14% within three years and zero-rating 23 categories of essential food and non-food items, such as baby food, sanitary towels, and textbooks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Administrative reforms to SARS are deemed essential, including the suspension of officials implicated in corruption, the appointment of a Presidential Commission for revitalization, and the reintroduction of a special priority crime unit to fight tax evasion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Insufficient tax revenue directly hinders job creation by limiting the state's ability to fund formal state-sector jobs, public works schemes, and private-sector generating infrastructure like hospitals and roads.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000278#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["tax policy"],"geography_discussed":["World"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","fiscal modeling"]}]}