{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["fiscal impact assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'fiscal impact assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":6,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=fiscal+impact+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"iejza-000376","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000376","title":"Fiscal pathways to a universal basic income grant, and their impacts on poverty, inequality and the wider economy","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2024-02","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-policybrief-UBIGpathways-jan2024.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates low-, medium-, and high-ambition scenarios for transitioning South Africa's Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant into a more permanent basic income grant (BIG). Using the DIMMSIM model, the research finds that such grants are fiscally sustainable when funded through progressive taxation and lead to significant reductions in poverty and unemployment while boosting GDP growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The modelling indicates that implementing a BIG is fiscally sustainable and generates positive outcomes for economic growth, poverty reduction, and unemployment across all three tested scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed BIG pathways could reduce the national poverty rate by up to two-thirds within eight years. Specifically, the low-, medium-, and high-ambition scenarios are projected to lower the national poverty rate by 7.3, 33.5, and 39.2 percentage points respectively by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A BIG is projected to stimulate GDP growth, increasing it from a business-as-usual baseline of 2.2% to between 2.8% and 3.5% by 2030, depending on the ambition level of the pathway.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of a BIG is expected to modestly reduce the unemployment rate, with the high-ambition scenario projecting a decrease from a 32.1% baseline to 27.2%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The grant's impact on inequality is significant, though more muted than its impact on poverty. The Gini-Coefficient is projected to decline from 68.1% in 2022 to between 55.1% and 57.7% by 2030 across the three scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net cost of the BIG is significantly lower than the gross cost because increased consumption stimulated by the grant generates additional VAT revenue for the government. Net costs are estimated to be 29% to 50% lower than gross costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed funding mechanisms for the BIG include a combination of a wealth tax, a social security tax (SST), and recouped VAT revenue. The high-ambition scenario specifically includes a wealth tax of 1% and an SST at 4% of wages up to a taxable maximum of R2.5 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000376#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["social protection","poverty reduction","fiscal policy","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modelling","fiscal impact assessment"]},{"id":"iejza-000225","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iejza-000225","title":"Modellering van fiskale roetes tot ‘n basiese inkomste","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Economic Justice","organization":"institute-for-economic-justice"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"af","date_published":"2023-11","source_url":"https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-Afrikaans.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The fact sheet presents modeling by the Institute for Economic Justice and Applied Development Research Solutions showing that a basic income grant in South Africa is fiscally sustainable and would positively impact GDP growth, poverty, and unemployment. It outlines three ambition levels (low, medium, and high) for the grant's value and coverage, funded through a combination of wealth taxes, a social security tax, and VAT revenue generated by increased consumption. The document argues that the net cost of such a program is significantly lower than the gross cost due to the economic multiplier effect in poor communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000225#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Modeling of three different pathways (low, medium, and high ambition) for a basic income grant (BIG) between 2023 and 2030 indicates that the policy is both sustainable and affordable.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000225#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The implementation of a BIG is projected to reduce the poverty rate by up to two-thirds over eight years and increase GDP growth from a 2.2% baseline to between 2.8% and 3.5% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000225#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A basic income grant based on the 2022 food poverty line (FPL) of R624 per month for adults aged 18 to 59 would have a gross annual cost of R255 billion, though actual costs may be lower (R153 billion to R204 billion) if only 60% to 80% of eligible people apply.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000225#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net cost of a UBIG could be as low as 50% of the gross cost due to the 'multiplier effect' where spending in poor communities stimulates economic activity and increases government revenue, specifically through VAT, which recovers approximately 12% of grant spending.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000225#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Proposed funding mechanisms include a social security tax (MSB) that could cover around 25% of the cost, a wealth tax on the richest 1% that could raise up to R143 billion annually, and a 25% VAT rate on luxury goods generating R9 billion per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000225#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Other potential revenue sources include a financial transactions tax (BFT) at 0.1% (R41 billion annually), a resource rent tax (BHH) (R38 billion annually), and reducing government subsidies on pension and medical funds (estimated at R133 billion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iejza-000225#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fiscal policy","poverty reduction","economic growth"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["macroeconomic modeling","fiscal impact assessment"]},{"id":"iisd-002919","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002919","title":"Boom and Bust: The fiscal implications of fossil fuel phase-out in six large emerging economies","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-07","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-07/fossil-fuel-phase-out-briics-economies.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the fiscal vulnerability of the BRIICS countries to the global energy transition. Using IEA scenarios, it projects significant declines in fossil fuel revenues by 2050, particularly under 1.5°C and 2°C pathways. To mitigate these risks, the authors propose a 'GSS bond support fund' to leverage near-term windfall revenues for decarbonization and suggest a broad suite of environmental fiscal reforms, including subsidy removal and the introduction of carbon pricing and road user charges.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The BRIICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa) exhibit high fiscal vulnerability to the energy transition due to their reliance on fossil fuel revenues, which in 2019 ranged from 5.5% of total government revenue in South Africa to 33.7% in Russia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), which is consistent with limiting warming to 2°C, direct public fossil fuel revenues for Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Russia are projected to fall to approximately 35% of 2019 levels by 2050, while India and South Africa's revenues may fall to around 65% of 2019 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A more ambitious 1.5°C pathway (Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario) would lead to a more severe decline, with fossil fuel revenues estimated to drop to roughly 10% of 2019 levels by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The potential revenue gap between a 'business as usual' (STEPS) pathway and the SDS is estimated at USD 178 billion by 2030 and USD 216 billion by 2050 for the BRIICS countries. This gap increases to USD 278 billion by 2030 and USD 569 billion by 2050 under the NZE scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report proposes a 'green, social, and sustainability (GSS) bond support fund' to strategically use near-term fossil fuel revenues. This mechanism would provide implicit debt guarantees to private issuers, potentially leveraging USD 10 billion in public funds to support USD 400 billion in private sector investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To replace declining fossil fuel revenues, the report recommends environmental fiscal reforms, starting with the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, which totaled USD 6.0 billion in Brazil, USD 28.1 billion in China, USD 10 billion in India, USD 13.2 billion in Indonesia, USD 9.3 billion in Russia, and USD 5.3 billion in South Africa in 2020 (or 2019-21).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests diversifying revenue streams through carbon pricing, road user charges (such as distance-based GPS tracking), vehicle registration taxes based on weight and emissions, and congestion charges to replace fuel excise taxes as electric vehicle adoption grows.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002919#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil-fuel phase-out","climate finance","climate bond","carbon price","fossil fuel subsidy","just transition","electric vehicle","economic diversity","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism"],"geography_discussed":["Norway","European Union","Denmark"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal impact assessment","revenue projection","policy recommendation"]},{"id":"iisd-001459","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001459","title":"RÉFORMES DE LA FISCALITÉ NUMÉRIQUE INTERNATIONALE ET EXPLOITATION MINIÈRE : LA QUESTION DES DIFFÉRENCES TEMPORELLES","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"fr","date_published":"2021-04","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-04/global-digital-tax-reforms-mining-fr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the risks posed by the OECD's Pillar Two (GloBE) rules to the mining sector, specifically regarding 'timing differences' between accounting profits and taxable income. It argues that without proper resolution, these differences—often caused by accelerated depreciation—could lead to double taxation and the transfer of tax revenues from developing nations to the home countries of multinational corporations. The report evaluates three potential solutions: loss carry-forwards/tax credits, deferred tax accounting, and the use of local tax rules.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001459#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Pillar Two (GloBE) proposal aims to establish a global minimum effective tax rate (ETR) to reduce tax competition and profit shifting, potentially discouraging costly tax incentives like tax holidays.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001459#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Timing differences occur when there is a gap between the accounting profit used for the GloBE ETR and the taxable profit determined by national tax laws. In mining, this is prevalent because capital expenditures are often depreciated faster for tax purposes than for accounting purposes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001459#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"If timing differences are not resolved, resource-rich developing countries risk losing mining investments and tax revenues, as top-up taxes would be paid to the parent company's home country rather than the host country.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001459#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report assesses three solutions for timing differences: a combination of loss carry-forwards and tax credits (deemed insufficient for capital-intensive industries), deferred tax accounting (considered a simple and transparent method if abuses are prevented), and the use of local tax rules (which reduces judgment but increases administrative complexity).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001459#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Permanent differences, such as tax holidays, are also problematic. Because many mining contracts contain stabilization clauses, developing countries may be legally unable to remove these incentives quickly, potentially leading to a double loss of revenue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001459#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["tax incentive"],"geography_discussed":["Canada","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","fiscal impact assessment"]},{"id":"transfor-000012","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/transfor-000012","title":"Impactos fiscales de la eliminación gradual de la producción de carbón en Colombia","publisher":{"name":"Transforma","organization":"transforma"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"es","date_published":"2021","source_url":"https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21.05-Documento-1-2-Impactos-Fiscales.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the economic dependence of Colombia and its producing regions on coal, highlighting the vulnerability of public finances to declining international demand and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the General Royalty System (SGR) and projects that despite recent legal reforms to increase direct allocations to producing regions, the downward trend in coal production will lead to significant losses in royalty revenues for departments like Cesar and La Guajira by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000012#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Coal production is highly concentrated geographically, with the Cesar and La Guajira regions producing 61% and 31% of Colombia's coal respectively in 2019. In these regions, the mining sector's contribution to the regional GDP was nearly 36% for Cesar and 42% for La Guajira in 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000012#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal royalties are a critical component of mining revenues, representing 89% of all mining royalties and 11% of total royalties (including oil and gas) as a percentage of national GDP in 2019 (0.2%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000012#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International trade trends, including climate mitigation policies and the COVID-19 pandemic, have reduced demand for Colombian coal. Export values fell by 22% by the end of the third quarter of 2020 compared to the previous year, primarily due to a 30.8% drop in commodity prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000012#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2020 reform of the General Royalty System (SGR) via Law 2056 aims to prioritize regional investment over savings, increasing direct allocations to producing regions from 11.2% to 25%. However, the document argues this policy is insufficient to offset the projected decline in coal revenues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000012#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the 'Transforma' scenario, which accounts for the long-term impact of the pandemic and financial instability of coal companies, national coal royalty revenues are projected to decrease to approximately one-third of their 2019 levels by 2030, falling from 1.9 trillion pesos to 0.6 trillion pesos.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000012#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional fiscal impacts vary: Cesar's SGR allocations are expected to decline by around 35% from a 2023 peak to 2029, though partially buffered by oil royalties. La Guajira's royalty revenues are projected to be on average 38% lower than previous distributions for the 2021-2028 period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000012#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","just transition","climate finance","fiscal policy","economic diversity","greenhouse gas emissions","renewable energy"],"geography_discussed":["Cesar","La Guajira Department","Boyacá Department","Norte de Santander Department","India","Turkey","Israel","South Korea","United States","Netherlands","Latin America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["fiscal impact assessment","economic projection","policy analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-000957","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-000957","title":"Policy Trends and Drivers of Low-Carbon Development in China’s Industrial Zones","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2015-03-07","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/policy-trends-and-drivers-low-carbon-development-chinas-industrial-zones","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines the drivers and implementation of low-carbon policies in China, noting a transition from national targets to local design across provinces and industrial zones. While this approach allows for local adaptation and policy learning, it has created a complex, overlapping regulatory environment that causes industry uncertainty, risks high compliance costs, and may lead to capital lock-in of high-emitting technologies. The text also references a separate IISD study on the fiscal risks facing BRIICS nations, including China, due to the global transition away from fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000957#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"China's drive toward decarbonization and energy efficiency is motivated by the 2009 Copenhagen Accord commitment to reduce greenhouse gas intensity by 40–45 per cent by 2020, systemic poor air quality in large cities, and energy security concerns both internationally and interprovincially.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000957#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The policy framework operates through a hybrid model where the national government sets overarching performance targets that cascade down to provinces and municipalities, while local regulatory authorities design the specific policies to achieve those targets based on local circumstances.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000957#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The lack of detailed central guidance on implementation has resulted in an overlapping and complex set of policies, leading to industry uncertainty, potential regulatory inefficiencies, and the risk of 'capital lock-in' where current technology choices commit industry to high-emitting processes that are costly to transition later.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000957#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A separate IISD study indicates that six emerging economies, including China, face a potential $278 billion revenue gap by 2030 if they do not adjust fiscal policies to account for the global transition away from fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-000957#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["emission intensity","energy efficiency","air quality","energy security","Low carbon development","renewable energy","fossil-fuel phase-out","fiscal policy"],"geography_discussed":["India","Russia","Brazil","Indonesia","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy synthesis","fiscal impact assessment"]}]}