{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["financial simulation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'financial simulation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":9,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=financial+simulation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"clipolin-001265","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-001265","title":"Siapa Bayar Apa untuk Transisi Hijau?","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"id","date_published":"2025-04","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Siapa-Bayar-Apa-Untuk-Transisi-Hijau_Final.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines Indonesia's energy transition through a lens of national interest, highlighting a significant gap between the high investment needs for Net Zero Emissions (NZE) and the limited availability of domestic and international funding. It argues that foreign climate finance often arrives as debt rather than grants, potentially exacerbating Indonesia's chronic fiscal deficits and public debt. The document analyzes the capacity of the Indonesian banking sector to fund renewable energy projects, finding that while capital adequacy is generally high, systemic bottlenecks in foreign exchange liquidity and long-term stable funding persist. It also evaluates the nascent Indonesian carbon market, noting a lack of clear emission caps (PTBAE) and low carbon prices. The authors propose 'The Indonesian Way,' a strategy focusing on eight action paths, including the dekarbonization of transport and electricity, targeted subsidies, and the development of a domestic green manufacturing ecosystem to reduce technological dependency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Indonesia's energy transition investment needs are vast and vary significantly by scenario; a median estimate based on the IRENA 1.5-S scenario suggests a requirement of US$73-76 billion per year until 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical mismatch between the funding required for the transition and Indonesia's fiscal capacity, with the annual investment needed for the NDC target until 2030 estimated at US$50 billion, which is roughly 3.6% of the 2024 GDP—comparable to the country's estimated twin deficit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International climate finance for Indonesia is predominantly composed of loans rather than grants, leading to perceptions that the climate narrative is a 'debt narrative' disguised as global benefit. For example, in the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), approximately Rp 156 trillion was offered as debt compared to only Rp 5 trillion in grants by late 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Indonesian banking sector, specifically the 17 largest banks in KBMI 3 and 4 categories, has the capital adequacy to support renewable energy projects, but faces 'bottlenecks' in foreign exchange (Net Open Position) and long-term stable funding (Net Stable Funding Ratio) if the most ambitious investment scenarios are pursued.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Indonesian carbon market is currently underdeveloped, characterized by low prices (approximately Rp 60,000 per ton in the IDX Carbon exchange) and a lack of national emission caps (PTBAE), which limits the incentive for companies to reduce emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's energy transition is hindered by 'sectoral anxiety' and a conservative consumer mindset that prefers 'greener but cheaper' options, as well as the influence of political and economic interests tied to the fossil fuel industry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant regional disparity in energy access; as of March 2023, 441,000 households outside Java-Bali lacked electricity compared to only 15,000 in Java-Bali, representing a disparity of nearly 97%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The manufacturing sector remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with coal accounting for nearly 50% of its energy consumption as of 2020, while renewable energy contributes only about 5%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia possesses significant 'blue carbon' potential through mangroves and seagrasses, which can store carbon 4-8 times more effectively than tropical rainforests, yet these are not yet fully integrated into the official NDC or LTS-LCCR targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report proposes 'The Indonesian Way' consisting of eight action paths: increasing public awareness, cross-sectoral emission limits, transport decarbonization, targeted subsidies, domestic gas infrastructure revitalization, carbon sector development, electricity/industry decarbonization, and future energy (hydrogen/nuclear) development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001265#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","climate finance","carbon neutrality","renewable energy","carbon capture and storage","Just Energy Transition Partnership","Blended Finance","climate bond","energy access","energy security","sustainable energy","biofuel","electric vehicle","greenhouse gas emissions","Nationally Determined Contributions"],"geography_discussed":["Java","Bali","Borneo","Papua","United States","European Union","Norway","India","Brazil","Vietnam","Malaysia","Philippines"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy assessment","financial simulation","socio-economic analysis","historical analysis"]},{"id":"clipolin-001332","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-001332","title":"WHO PAYS WHAT FOR INDONESIA'S GREEN TRANSITION?","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-04","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Who-Pays-What-for-Indonesias-Green-Transition.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines Indonesia's path toward net-zero emissions by 2060, highlighting a significant gap between current investment levels and the estimated annual need of USD 73–76 billion. It argues that foreign climate finance is often debt-heavy and unreliable, urging a shift toward domestic funding and structural reforms. The analysis covers the banking sector's limited capacity to finance renewable energy, the underperformance of the national carbon market, and the socioeconomic disparities in energy access. It proposes an \"Indonesian Way\" consisting of eight strategic actions, including targeted subsidies and the development of a domestic clean-tech ecosystem, to ensure a just and sovereign transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Foreign climate finance for Indonesia is predominantly composed of debt rather than grants, leading to concerns that the transition is a \"debt disguised as global welfare.\"","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's commercial banking sector lacks the capacity to fully finance renewable energy power plants, which require an estimated USD 11 billion annually, especially under high-growth scenarios where sector concentration and funding risks emerge.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Indonesian carbon market is currently underdeveloped, with low transaction values and prices (approximately IDR 60,000 per ton) that are significantly below the levels required to effectively incentivize emission reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Significant regional energy inequality exists, with 96% of households without electricity located outside Java and Bali as of March 2023.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia's energy transition targets are often inconsistent across different official documents, with the Enhanced NDC projecting higher 2030 emissions than the Long-Term Strategy (LTS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The manufacturing sector remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with coal accounting for nearly 50% of its total energy consumption in 2020.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Blended finance is viewed as a tool to bridge the funding gap, but its implementation in Indonesia is hindered by a lack of investable projects and a limited understanding among domestic stakeholders.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indonesia possesses immense carbon absorption potential in its marine and terrestrial ecosystems, including the world's largest mangrove forests, though these are not yet fully integrated into official NDC targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report proposes an \"Indonesian Way\" for transition, which includes eight strategic actions: increasing public awareness, limiting cross-sector emissions, decarbonizing transport, targeting subsidies, improving gas infrastructure, developing the carbon sector, decarbonizing electricity/industry, and future energy development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-001332#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition","climate finance","renewable energy","carbon neutrality","Blended Finance","coal-fired power station","climate bond","carbon capture and storage","biofuel","energy efficiency","nature-based solutions","Mangrove restoration","fiscal policy","energy poverty","just transition"],"geography_discussed":["Java-Bali","Sumatra","Kalimantan","Papua","United States","People's Republic of China","European Union","Norway","India","Brazil","Vietnam","Philippines","Malaysia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","financial simulation","socioeconomic assessment","historical analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002201","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002201","title":"TAX INCENTIVES IN MINING: MINIMISING RISKS TO REVENUE","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"guide","language":"en","date_published":"2018","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/tax-incentives-in-mining-minimising-risks-to-revenue-guidance.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document introduces a four-step framework for estimating the total cost of mining tax incentives by combining direct revenue losses with behavioural costs. It presents the IGF Mining Tax Incentives Financial Model, a tool pre-configured for a medium-sized surface gold mine in sub-Saharan Africa, which allows users to simulate how investors might change operations or financing to maximise incentives. The guide details specific behavioural risks, such as high-grading in response to tax holidays and excessive interest deductions following withholding tax exemptions, and provides methodologies for testing these estimates through scenario modelling and sensitivity analysis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002201#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The total cost of tax incentives is composed of two elements: the direct cost (the difference between benchmark revenue and revenue under the incentive regime) and the behavioural cost (unintended revenue losses resulting from investors changing their behaviour to maximise financial benefits).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002201#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Combining multiple tax incentives can lead to a total cost greater than the sum of individual incentives because they can interact to erode the tax base. For example, combining import duty exemptions with income tax holidays and withholding tax exemptions on dividends can allow profits to increase while remaining entirely untaxed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002201#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Income tax holidays create a risk of 'high-grading', where investors increase the cut-off grade to speed up production during the tax-free period, which can significantly increase the total cost of the incentive by shortening the mine's life.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002201#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Exemptions from withholding tax (WHT) on interest can incentivise 'excessive interest deductions', where investors increase borrowing or interest rates to shift income to offshore affiliates, thereby reducing corporate income tax revenue.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002201#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sliding-scale royalties with an aggregate structure can lead to mineral price manipulation, creating 'dead zones' where buyers and sellers are incentivized to transact at the threshold limit to avoid higher royalty brackets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002201#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Tax incentives are considered poorly targeted if their cost increases when mine performance improves (e.g., higher commodity prices), as the value is greatest when the incentive is least needed for viability. Conversely, cost-based incentives are better targeted as they provide more support when performance is worse.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002201#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["mining","tax incentive"],"geography_discussed":["Canada","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["guidance","financial simulation","policy analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002004","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002004","title":"Application d’une Évaluation des Actifs Durables (SAVi) Pour la Voie de Contournement de Rabat au Maroc: Gros plan sur les infrastructures routières","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"case study","language":"fr","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-contournement-morocco-brochure-fr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document details the use of the SAVi methodology to evaluate the 4.1 km Rabat bypass road in Morocco, including the Mohammed VI bridge. By simulating six different scenarios—ranging from budget cuts in maintenance to climate change-induced road damage—the analysis demonstrates how integrating external factors like carbon costs, accident costs, and time savings alters the project's financial outlook. The results indicate that when these external factors are included, the project's integrated cost-benefit analysis shows net losses across all scenarios, suggesting it is not a robust investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002004#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The SAVi methodology was used to evaluate four specific external factors for the Rabat bypass: the social cost of carbon emissions, the economic cost of accidents, the value of time saved to improve economic productivity, and discretionary spending from labor wages within the national economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002004#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis shows that conventional cost-benefit calculations (revenues minus costs) differ significantly from integrated analyses that include external factors. For the 'as initially planned' scenario (Case 1), the conventional analysis shows a benefit of 52.7 million euros, while the integrated analysis shows a net loss of 0.2 million euros.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002004#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change impacts (Case 6) lead to frequent disruptions and a decrease in traffic, while increasing capital expenditures for operations by 7.3 million euros due to necessary reconstruction of road damage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002004#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","climate change","climate risk","transportation"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","financial simulation"]},{"id":"iisd-002023","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002023","title":"A focus on irrigation infrastructure","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-sagcot-tanzania-initiative-brochure.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The SAVi analysis of the SAGCOT Initiative in Tanzania compares flood irrigation with drip irrigation across three scenarios. It finds that while drip irrigation requires higher capital investment, it can yield significantly higher net benefits (USD 39.21 million in a low-capex scenario) compared to flood irrigation (USD 12.88 million). By 2030, drip irrigation is projected to increase employment and agricultural production by 8% each while reducing water use by 14% relative to flood irrigation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002023#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The net benefits of the SAGCOT project are directly correlated with the capital costs of the irrigation technology used. A low-capex drip irrigation scenario (USD 1,500 per hectare) produces the highest net benefit of USD 39.21 million, whereas a high-capex drip scenario (USD 3,000 per hectare) produces the lowest at USD 3.98 million, and flood irrigation (USD 81.50 per hectare) produces USD 12.88 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002023#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Drip irrigation is projected to outperform flood irrigation in resource efficiency and economic output by 2030, specifically by reducing water use by 14% and increasing both agricultural production and employment by 8%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002023#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Drip irrigation generates higher total revenue (USD 168.61 million) than flood irrigation (USD 117.65 million) because water savings allow for a larger area of land to be irrigated, although this 'unlocked' land requires additional investment costs between USD 8.23 and USD 15.62 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002023#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"From a financial viability perspective, the low-capex drip irrigation scenario offers a significantly higher Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 13.42% compared to 6.20% for flood irrigation. Both drip scenarios also show superior credit ratios (DSCR and LLCR) compared to flood irrigation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002023#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water resource","agricultural production","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["Kilombero basin"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","financial simulation"]},{"id":"iisd-002025","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002025","title":"Applying a Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) to the Bus Rapid Transit Project in Senegal","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-brochure-en.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The SAVi assessment of Dakar's Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project reveals that while traditional financial analysis suggests the project is not viable, the inclusion of externalities—such as time saved and avoided transportation costs—significantly enhances its financial performance. The project, estimated to cost EUR 369,490,000 and transport 300,000 passengers daily upon completion in 2023, generates total net benefits ranging from CFA 1.7 trillion to 2.7 trillion across different demand scenarios. While the BRT is expected to cause a 14% net job loss within the transportation sector, it is projected to increase overall economy discretionary spending by 15.6% due to improved mobility.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002025#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Traditional financial assessments indicate that the BRT project is not financially viable regardless of passenger demand, but incorporating externalities significantly improves financial indicators. For example, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for Scenario 1 (BRT) is 2.17%, which rises to 37.69% in Scenario 1E (BRT + externalities).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002025#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The integrated Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) shows that the BRT project generates net benefits across all three demand scenarios, with total net benefits ranging from CFA 1.7 trillion to almost CFA 2.7 trillion (USD 2.94 billion to USD 4.61 billion).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002025#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most significant externalities contributing to the project's value are the avoided cost of transportation, the value of time saved, and discretionary spending.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002025#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The BRT project is expected to result in a net job loss of 14% within the transportation sector, as job creation from the project will not fully compensate for losses in other transport modes. However, improved mobility is projected to increase discretionary spending in the overall economy by 15.6%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002025#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The BRT project in Dakar has an estimated total cost of EUR 369,490,000 and is funded by the Senegalese Government, the World Bank, the European Bank, and the Green Climate Fund.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002025#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["bus rapid transit","public transport","greenhouse gas emissions","air pollution","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost benefit analysis","financial simulation","externality valuation"]},{"id":"iisd-002026","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002026","title":"Application d’une évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) au projet « Bus Rapid Transit » au Sénégal","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"case study","language":"fr","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-brochure-fr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document applies the SAVi methodology to the Dakar BRT project, demonstrating that while conventional financial analysis suggests the project is not viable, the integration of external effects—such as time saved and avoided pollution—reveals substantial net benefits for Senegalese society. The analysis covers four scenarios, including variations in passenger demand, and predicts a net job loss of 14% in the transport sector, offset by a 15.6% increase in discretionary spending across the wider economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002026#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Conventional financial analysis indicates that the BRT project is not financially viable regardless of passenger demand levels. However, integrating external effects significantly improves performance indicators, with the total net benefits across scenarios ranging from 1,700 billion to nearly 2,700 billion CFA francs (approximately 2.94 billion to 4.61 billion US dollars).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002026#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project is expected to cause a net loss of 14% in employment within the transport sector, as job creation within the project does not fully compensate for losses in other modes of transport. Despite this, the wider economy is projected to see a 15.6% increase in discretionary spending due to improved mobility in other sectors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002026#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The SAVi evaluation for the BRT project specifically analyzes six external effects: discretionary spending from labor income, value of time saved, avoided transport costs, avoided pollution costs (PM2.5, SO2, and NOx), avoided greenhouse gas (CO2) emission costs, and avoided accident costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002026#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The BRT project, managed by the Conseil Exécutif des Transports Urbains de Dakar (CETUD) and estimated to cost 369,490,000 euros, is projected to transport 300,000 passengers daily upon completion in 2023. Funding is provided by the World Bank, the European Bank, the government of Senegal, and the Green Climate Fund.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002026#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["bus rapid transit","public transport","urban transport","greenhouse gas emissions","air pollution","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","financial simulation","employment impact analysis"]},{"id":"iisd-002030","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002030","title":"Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du parc éolien de Taïba N’Diaye au Sénégal","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"fr","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-ndiaye-wind-farm-brochure-fr.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The SAVi assessment of the Taïba N’Diaye wind farm demonstrates that while traditional financial metrics may favor fossil fuels due to lower initial capital costs, the wind project provides superior societal value and lower long-term costs when climate risks and externalities are integrated. The wind farm is projected to generate 158.7 MW of electricity and create significantly more jobs with far lower lifecycle emissions than coal or HFO alternatives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002030#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Taïba N’Diaye wind farm is projected to generate 158.7 MW of electricity once fully operational, with construction having commenced in January 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002030#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"When accounting for climate risks and external effects, the wind farm's Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is 43,266 francs CFA per MWh (74 USD), making it more affordable than coal (52,998 francs CFA/MWh or 91 USD) and significantly more attractive than HFO (155,728 francs CFA/MWh or 267 USD).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002030#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The wind project outperforms fossil fuel alternatives in employment and emissions: it creates 66 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs per year compared to 15 for HFO and 11 for coal, and produces only 0.1 million tonnes of lifecycle CO2 emissions compared to 2.2 million for HFO and 6.1 million for coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002030#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Traditional financial analysis (Scenario 0) shows a higher Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for coal (23.53%) than for the wind farm (12.17%) due to the wind project's capital expenditures being more than double those of coal. However, in Scenario 2, which includes climate risks and externalities, the Net Present Value (NPV) of the wind farm exceeds that of coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002030#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal power","climate risk","carbon tax","green job"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["cost-benefit analysis","financial simulation","comparative technology assessment"]},{"id":"iisd-003443","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003443","title":"Applying a Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) to the Contournement De Rabat, Morocco","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-contournement-morocco-brochure-en.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The case study applies the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) tool to the 41.1 km Contournement de Rabat toll road in Morocco to evaluate how operational risks and externalities impact its financial performance. The analysis compares a 'Business as Usual' (BAU) scenario against five risk-based scenarios, including reduced maintenance, increased road works, traffic surges, and climate-related damage. The findings demonstrate that while conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) may show a profit, an integrated CBA including externalities—such as the cost of accidents and the social cost of carbon—often results in a net loss, indicating the project may not be a sound investment for debt or equity investors when these factors are internalized.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003443#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The application of SAVi to the Contournement de Rabat project allowed Autoroute du Maroc (ADM) to value operational risks and externalities in financial terms for the first time. The assessment focused on four specific externalities: the social cost of carbon, the economic valuation of accidents, the value of time saved (economic productivity), and the discretionary spending of labour income within the domestic economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003443#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Integrated Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) that includes externalities reveals a significantly different financial outcome than conventional CBA. In the 'Business as Usual' (Scenario 1) case, the conventional CBA shows a positive result of 52.7 million EUR, but the integrated CBA results in a net loss of -0.2 million EUR.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003443#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reduced maintenance expenditure has a direct negative impact on safety costs. A decrease in maintenance spending from 73.64 million EUR to 65.34 million EUR (Scenario 2) is projected to increase the cost of accidents from 212 million EUR to 236 million EUR.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003443#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change poses a financial risk to the project through both increased capital expenditure and decreased revenue. Scenario 6, which simulates 2 km of road damage every 10 years, results in an additional operational CAPEX of 7.3 million EUR for reconstruction and a decrease in traffic due to disruptions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003443#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased heavy vehicle traffic (Scenario 5) generates higher revenues, increasing from 456.10 million EUR to 464.89 million EUR, but this gain is insufficient to offset the associated costs when externalities are included, resulting in a net loss of 16.3 million EUR in the integrated CBA.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003443#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change"],"geography_discussed":["Rabat"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","financial simulation"]}]}