{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["expert elicitation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'expert elicitation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":6,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=expert+elicitation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"polint-000053","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/polint-000053","title":"Carbon Removal, Climate Impacts, and Equity: Insights from Expert Elicitation","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Policy Integrity","organization":"institute-for-policy-integrity"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2025-10-15","source_url":"https://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/carbon-removal-climate-impacts-and-equity-insights-from-expert-elicitation","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines expert perspectives on how climate damages exacerbate inequality and identifies three primary equity risks associated with carbon dioxide removal (CDR): moral hazard, the use of removed CO2 for enhanced oil recovery, and negative social or environmental impacts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000053#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Experts in climate economics indicate that the damages resulting from climate change are expected to worsen inequality on both an international and domestic scale.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000053#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide removal","climate justice"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["expert elicitation"]},{"id":"polint-000023","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/polint-000023","title":"Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Policy Integrity","organization":"institute-for-policy-integrity"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"en","date_published":"2024-07-31","source_url":"https://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/consensus-on-carbon-dioxide-removal","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report summarizes a survey of 699 CDR researchers, finding that while experts predict multi-gigaton-scale removal by 2050, they identify market costs and policy gaps as primary barriers. Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and forest-based methods are expected to provide the largest shares of removal by 2075, with forest-based removal being the most cost-effective. Despite predicting a need for over 12 Gt of CDR to reach net-zero by 2075, respondents project actual removal levels to be significantly lower, suggesting a gap between necessity and expected implementation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000023#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Experts identify market costs and a lack of government policy-driven demand as the most significant challenges inhibiting the widespread adoption of carbon dioxide removal (CDR).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000023#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Researchers project that CDR will reach multi-gigaton scales by 2050, with median estimates of 2.3 Gt in 2050, 5 Gt in 2075, and 10 Gt in 2100.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000023#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"By 2075, BECCS is expected to be the largest CDR contributor (over 20%), followed by forest-based CDR and Direct Air Capture (DAC) at 15-20%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000023#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Forest-based CDR is projected as the cheapest option for 2075 with a mean cost of $49/tonne, while DAC is the most expensive technological approach at a mean cost of $163/tonne.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000023#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant discrepancy between the amount of CDR experts believe is necessary for net-zero by 2075 (over 85% believe more than 12 Gt is needed) and the amounts they actually predict will be achieved.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000023#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nearly half of the surveyed experts believe that the absence of viable widespread CDR by 2075 would lead to significantly greater emissions-mitigation efforts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"polint-000023#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide removal","Net-zero emissions","bio-energy with carbon capture and storage","direct air capture","carbon price","carbon capture and storage","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["expert elicitation","forecasting"]},{"id":"sei-001448","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001448","title":"Prospects and challenges for land-based climate change mitigation in support of carbon dioxide removal in China","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2024-02","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/land-climate-mitigation-china-sei2024.003.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that while China has significant potential for land-based climate mitigation, efforts have historically focused on energy and industry, with forestry being the only land sector with comprehensive targets. Agriculture, grasslands, and wetlands remain underexploited, hampered by a lack of standardized methodologies and a prioritization of food security over carbon sequestration. The relaunch of the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme in 2023 offers a potential funding mechanism, though it is currently limited to forestry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Forestry is the most developed land-based mitigation sector in China, with explicit targets for forest cover and stock volume. The National Forest Management Plan aims for a forest carbon stock exceeding \"13 billion tons\" by 2050, and the national forest cover rate is targeted to be \"stable at more than 26%\" by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural emissions are projected to rise and become a primary greenhouse gas source in the future because the sector has not been prioritized for decarbonization. While the 2022 Agriculture and Rural Areas Emission Reduction and Carbon Sequestration Implementation Plan signals intent, \"detailed indicators and targets on carbon sequestration are yet to be devised\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Black soil protection in Northeast China is a key agricultural LMT, with the Northeast Black Soil Conservation Cultivation Action Plan aiming to implement conservation tillage on \"70% of total arable land\" (approximately 9.3 million ha) by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Grasslands and wetlands are currently underexploited for carbon sequestration. Grassland vegetation cover targets are set at \"57%\" by 2025 and \"60%\" by 2035, while wetland protection rates are targeted at \"55%\" by 2025 and \"60%\" by 2035, though these focus on ecological function rather than specific carbon stocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, relaunched in 2023, provides a market mechanism for financing LMTs, but it is \"currently largely limited to the forestry sector\". Experts note that stringent methodologies and high monitoring costs make it less accessible for smallholder farmers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A critical barrier across most LMTs is the \"absence of knowledge, technical readiness, and standardized procedures for implementation\", particularly regarding the calculation of sequestered carbon in agriculture and grasslands.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China's land-based carbon stocks are estimated at \"79.24 Petagrams of carbon (Pg C)\", with the distribution being 39% in forests, 32% in grasslands, 21% in croplands, and 8% in shrublands.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001448#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide removal","afforestation","forest management","biochar","bio-energy with carbon capture and storage","agroforestry"],"geography_discussed":["Fujian Province","Sichuan","Heilongjiang Province","Jilin Province","India","Malaysia","Myanmar"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy review","expert elicitation","literature review"]},{"id":"costratri-000280","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/costratri-000280","title":"THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US","publisher":{"name":"The Council on Strategic Risks","organization":"the-council-on-strategic-risks"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021-02","source_url":"https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-Security-Threat-That-Binds-Us_2021_2-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that global ecological disruption is a critical, underappreciated security threat. It details how the collapse of ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and environmental crime create systemic risks including pandemics, political instability, and economic harm. The authors advocate for a fundamental reboot of U.S. national security architecture to integrate scientific expertise and prioritize ecological security alongside climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global ecological disruption is characterized as a primary 21st-century security threat, involving the destabilization of the biosphere and the potential onset of a sixth mass extinction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ecological regime shifts—large, sudden, and largely irreversible changes in ecosystems—can cause severe socioeconomic disruption, such as the collapse of kelp forests affecting fisheries in the U.S., Australia, and Japan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Biodiversity loss is accelerating, with some estimates suggesting current species extinction rates are up to 1,000 times the natural background rate.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ecological degradation, particularly habitat loss and fragmentation, increases the risk of zoonotic 'spillover' pathogens, contributing to the rising frequency of pandemics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Environmental crime, including illegal wildlife, timber, and fisheries trade, generates significant profits for criminal and terrorist networks, with estimated annual market losses for illicit timber between $30 billion and $157 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water stress is a major driver of instability; while interstate water wars are rare, subnational water conflicts have increased, and transboundary disputes like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) create regional tensions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Food insecurity is linked to social unrest and migration, with a 1% increase in food insecurity compelling 1.9% more people to migrate per 1,000 population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Deforestation in the Amazon may reach a tipping point if warming reaches 4°C or deforestation exceeds 40%, potentially shifting the forest to a savanna state.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing causes immense economic damage, with global net economic losses estimated between $11 billion and $36 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The U.S. national security apparatus is currently ill-equipped for 'actorless' threats, with ecological security spending representing approximately 0.01% of the federal budget.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"costratri-000280#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["biodiversity loss","ecosystem service","water security","food security","deforestation","illegal logging","climate change","natural disaster"],"geography_discussed":["Ethiopia","Egypt","People's Republic of China","Brazil","Pakistan","Ecuador"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","risk assessment","expert elicitation"]},{"id":"sei-000911","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000911","title":"Assessing future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-12-10","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-future-vulnerability-of-the-global-peatland-carbon-sink/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research synthesizes literature and expert elicitation to quantify drivers of change affecting peatland carbon stocks and highlights the critical gap in current climate modeling frameworks, which largely omit peatland ecosystems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000911#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Peatlands are projected to transition from being a carbon sink to a carbon source within the current century.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000911#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current climate projection tools, specifically the main Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used for mitigation and impact studies, do not include peatland ecosystems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000911#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["peatland","carbon sink"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["literature review","expert elicitation"]},{"id":"cliout-000127","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliout-000127","title":"Climate Communication in Practice: How are we engaging UK public?","publisher":{"name":"Climate Outreach","organization":"climate-outreach"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-11-27","source_url":"https://climateoutreach.org/reports/climate-communication-in-practice-how-are-we-engaging-uk-public/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report serves as a barometer for UK climate engagement, drawing on a survey of 178 climate communicators and an expert elicitation workshop to establish best practice recommendations and identify consensus and conflict among practitioners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliout-000127#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The report is based on data collected from a survey of 178 climate communicators and a one-day 'expert elicitation' workshop.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliout-000127#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document aims to determine the goals and principles of climate change engagement and analyze the points of consensus and divergence among communication practitioners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliout-000127#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change communication"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["survey","expert elicitation"]}]}