{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["ex-ante risk assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'ex-ante risk assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=ex-ante+risk+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"clipolin-000526","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000526","title":"FERROGRÃO: FRAGILIDADES E LIÇÕES PARA A IMPLEMENTAÇÃO DE UMA AGENDA DE INFRAESTRUTURA SUSTENTÁVEL","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"executive summary","language":"pt","date_published":"2020-09","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Ferrograo-Fragilidades-e-Licoes-para-a-Implementacao-de-uma-Agenda-de-Infraestrutura-Sustentavel.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzed the Ferrogrão railway project, finding significant gaps in its economic planning, socio-environmental governance, and risk assessment. The project, intended to lower soy export costs from Mato Grosso, faces risks of inducing 2,043 km² of deforestation. The analysis highlights a lack of transparency and a failure to align the project's technical studies with international socio-environmental standards.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000526#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The economic analysis of the Ferrogrão project is flawed because it ignores the impact of competing investments, such as the modernization of the BR-163/MT/PA highway and other railway projects like the Ferrovia de Integração Centro-Oeste (FICO), the expansion of the Norte-Sul central section, and the extension of Ferronorte to Lucas do Rio Verde.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000526#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's socio-environmental governance is weak, with the Technical Study of Technical, Economic and Environmental Viability (EVTEA) failing to meet its own Terms of Reference (TR) and government manuals. Specifically, the EVTEA followed only 63% of the Valec manual, and only three of ten key international socio-environmental components were included in its TR.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000526#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The construction of the railway is projected to induce the deforestation of 2,043 km² of native vegetation across nearly forty municipalities in Mato Grosso by increasing land demand for farmers and ranchers. The estimated carbon emission cost of this deforestation is US$ 1.9 billion, based on a carbon price of US$ 25/tCO2e.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000526#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant lack of transparency regarding the project's documentation, as some information was not available on the internet or provided through the Access to Information Law (LAI), which hinders the ability of civil society and academia to monitor the project.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000526#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's administrative sequence is logically inconsistent, notably because the Environmental Impact Study (EIA) is being developed during and after the public hearings, whereas logically the EVTEA should precede the EIA.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000526#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","carbon dioxide emissions","carbon price","green infrastructure","environmental impact assessment"],"geography_discussed":["Mato Grosso","Pará","Itaituba","Miritituba"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["ex-ante risk assessment","governance analysis","economic viability analysis"]}]}