{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["ex-ante evaluation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'ex-ante evaluation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=ex-ante+evaluation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"clipolin-000761","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000761","title":"The Environmental Impacts of the Ferrogrão Railroad","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2020-03","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PB_The-Environmental-Impacts-of-the-Ferrograo-Railroad-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates the environmental risks of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railroad, estimating that without mitigation, the project will induce 2,043 square kilometers of deforestation in Mato Grosso. This land-use change is projected to release 75 million tons of carbon, creating an environmental cost of approximately US$1.9 billion, which represents about 60% of the railroad's estimated US$3.1 billion implementation cost.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000761#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The construction of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railroad is projected to increase deforestation by 2,043 square kilometers in the state of Mato Grosso under a 'business-as-usual' scenario without mitigation measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000761#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The projected deforestation is estimated to raise carbon emissions by 75 million tons, which, at a price of US$25 per ton, results in an environmental cost of approximately US$1.9 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000761#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The estimated environmental cost of US$1.9 billion corresponds to roughly 60% of the railroad's total projected implementation cost of US$3.1 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000761#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The railroad's impact is driven by improved market access, which is expected to generate an average improvement of 8% in market access for 38 benefited municipalities, inducing farmers and ranchers to expand production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000761#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The deforestation estimate of 2,043 square kilometers is considered conservative because the model may underestimate Miritituba port export costs, ignore freight reductions on competing corridors like BR-163, and overlook potential population increases in benefited municipalities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000761#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The analysis suggests that the environmental footprint could be reduced through mitigation measures such as the implementation of the forest code, command and control efforts, and payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000761#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","carbon dioxide emissions","land use","carbon price","ecosystem service","biodiversity"],"geography_discussed":["Amazon rainforest","Pará","Sinop","Itaituba","Miritituba","Santos","Paranaguá"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["ex-ante evaluation","econometric modeling","cost-benefit analysis"]}]}