{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["ex post evaluation"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'ex post evaluation' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=ex+post+evaluation","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"wri-001760","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-001760","title":"LESSONS LEARNED ON GREEN STIMULUS: CASE STUDIES FROM THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-11","source_url":"https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/lessons-learned-on-green-stimulus-case-studies-from-the-global-financial-crisis.pdf?5gDebandVTpi8eM8XtXwLE7jjZem2DPI","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper evaluates the 2008–09 green stimulus, finding that while it supported GDP and job creation in economies like the US, China, South Korea, and the EU, it failed to create a long-term low-carbon trajectory due to a lack of structural reforms and the persistence of fossil fuel subsidies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Approximately US$520 billion, or 16 percent of total global fiscal stimulus in 2008–09, was allocated to green measures under a broad definition. The vast majority of this spending was concentrated in five economies: China, the United States, South Korea, Japan, and the European Union.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green stimulus spending generally contributed positively to economic recovery and employment. In the US, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) supported 900,000 job-years in clean energy from 2009 to 2015. In China, green investments boosted GDP by 4.2% above the baseline in 2009 and 3.6% in 2010. In the EU, each $1 of green investment increased GDP by $0.60 to $1.10 nationally and up to $1.50 at the European level.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green investments often demonstrated higher employment multipliers than fossil fuel investments. For example, US stimulus spending on public transit generated 70 percent more jobs than equivalent spending on highways, and investing $1 million in building efficiency, solar PV, or clean urban transport creates more than twice as many gross jobs as $1 million in coal or gas power.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite green stimulus, global CO2 emissions rebounded strongly after the initial economic contraction. This is attributed to the relatively small scale of green spending compared to total stimulus, the time lag for investments to impact emissions, and a lack of structural reforms. Notably, between 2009 and 2013, the world spent 15 times more on fossil fuel subsidies than on disbursed clean energy stimulus.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Central bank responses, specifically quantitative easing (QE) programs in the US, UK, and EU, did not target green sectors and were criticized for maintaining the high-carbon status quo by allocating purchases based on market makeup or targeting mortgage markets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementation speed and transparency varied significantly by country. While South Korea disbursed funds rapidly, the US spent 89 percent of its allocated green stimulus, and Australia spent only 34 percent. Some projects were less 'green' than claimed, such as China's rail infrastructure that supported coal transport and South Korea's river restoration project that built new dams.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Car-scrapping schemes implemented by eight of the top ten car-producing countries were largely ineffective as green stimulus, providing only modest economic boosts and failing to significantly reduce emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Multilateral development banks (MDBs) increased lending during the crisis, but only the European Investment Bank (EIB) made climate change a central focus of its strategy. Other institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), continued to provide significant finance for oil, gas, and energy-related products.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001760#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fiscal policy","renewable energy","energy efficiency","rail transport","Grid modernization","water management","carbon capture and storage","fossil fuel subsidy","carbon price","climate finance","nature-based solutions","greenhouse gas emissions"],"geography_discussed":["United States","South Korea","European Union","Japan","Australia","Germany","France","United Kingdom","Canada"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","ex post evaluation","policy analysis"]},{"id":"sei-001182","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001182","title":"Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2013-10","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4543.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"This policy brief evaluates the use of the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model in Estonian energy planning. A 2012 re-assessment found that actual CO₂ and SO₂ emissions between 2000 and 2006 were slightly higher than 2009 model projections, primarily due to revised statistical methodologies and unexpected increases in electricity exports. The study highlights that while LEAP is effective for supply predictions, it is less accurate for demand forecasts due to the influence of unpredictable political and economic decisions. The authors argue for the necessity of periodic ex post re-assessments of modelling results to improve policy planning and reduce future uncertainties.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001182#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Periodic re-assessment of modelling results in Impact Assessments is necessary for better policy planning because models like LEAP are susceptible to unpredictable long-term political and economic decisions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001182#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Actual emissions from 2000–2006 were higher than the 2009 LEAP projections, with CO₂ emissions 1.5% higher and SO₂ emissions 2.0% higher, largely because of revised statistical methodologies and increased electricity exports to the region.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001182#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LEAP model is more effective at predicting energy supply than demand, as production capacities are more stable than consumption patterns, which are more easily influenced by economic and political factors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001182#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2012 re-assessment indicates that emissions by 2030 will be higher than the 2009 projections due to a higher annual growth in electricity consumption (2.2% compared to 1.5%) and significantly larger annual electricity exports (4,354 GWh compared to 1,000 GWh).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001182#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Actual heat consumption was up to 13% lower than assumed in the model, likely due to government-supported house insulation schemes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001182#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Several unforeseen factors contributed to the deviation between projections and reality, including the continued operation of old oil-shale units, the decision to install sulphur-capturing filters instead of closing plants in 2016, and the start of net electricity exports in 2009.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001182#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","nuclear power","wind power","natural gas","biomass","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["ex post evaluation","modelling re-assessment"]}]}