{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["event history analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'event history analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=event+history+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001415","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001415","title":"Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2009","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/67b08499-9fdb-42d0-8e2f-afd390be7c66/Geography Rebel Capability and the Duration of Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research finds that civil conflicts last longer when they are located far from the government stronghold, near international borders, or in regions with valuable minerals like gemstones and petroleum. Conversely, higher rebel military capacity is associated with shorter conflict durations. The study concludes that geography significantly shapes the balance of power and the ability of belligerents to sustain warfare.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Conflicts located at a greater distance from the capital city tend to last longer, as governments often struggle to project power and maintain authority in peripheral regions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Proximity to international borders significantly increases conflict duration, likely due to the availability of safe havens and access to foreign markets or supportive ethnic kin.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rebel military capacity is inversely related to conflict duration; conflicts involving stronger rebel groups are more likely to end quickly through victory or negotiated settlements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The presence of valuable natural resources in the conflict zone, specifically gemstones and petroleum, is associated with longer conflict durations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Contrary to theoretical expectations, the study found no empirical evidence that rough terrain, such as mountains or forests, systematically prolongs the duration of civil conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The availability of narcotics (drugs) in the conflict zone did not show a systematic relationship with the duration of the conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The post-Cold War era is associated with a higher baseline probability of conflict resolution compared to the preceding period.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Higher democracy scores are associated with longer conflict durations, which the authors attribute to a reluctance among democratic regimes to use massive military force against peripheral separatists.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001415#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Myanmar","India","Ethiopia","Colombia","Peru","Togo","Yemen","Guinea-Bissau","Afghanistan","Uganda","Comoros","Indonesia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative analysis","event history analysis","formal modeling"]},{"id":"prio-001496","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001496","title":"It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3ebe4aa1-fbe6-4e22-ab92-2145cd56abe4/It Takes Two A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research argues that civil war dynamics are best understood as dyadic interactions between governments and specific rebel groups rather than through aggregate national characteristics. Using new data on non-state actors, the authors find that militarily strong rebels tend to fight shorter wars and are more likely to achieve decisive victories or concessions. Conversely, conflicts are prolonged when rebels are militarily weak but maintain territorial control in the periphery, as they can evade government repression without being strong enough to force a settlement. The study also indicates that the availability of legal political wings for rebels shortens conflict duration, and that the likelihood of government victory decreases significantly as a conflict persists.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Rebel groups with stronger military capabilities, including high mobilization capacity and arms procurement, are associated with shorter conflict durations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The presence of a legally recognized political wing for rebel groups increases the likelihood of conflict termination, independent of the state's overall level of democracy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The probability of a government victory declines precipitously over time; after approximately 50 days, government victory becomes less likely than a 'low activity' outcome.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Decisive outcomes—such as rebel victory, government victory, or formal agreements—are more frequent when rebels are militarily stronger than or at parity with the government.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Conflicts involving multiple non-state actors (multiple dyads) tend to last longer than those with a single rebel group.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Democratic institutions alone do not necessarily shorten civil wars; the data shows a negative effect of democracy on the hazard rate of conflict termination.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coup attempts are significantly shorter in duration than other types of civil conflicts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001496#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Philippines","Colombia","Turkey","South Africa","Democratic Republic of the Congo","Chechnya","Papua New Guinea","Afghanistan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["dyadic analysis","event history analysis","multinomial logit"]}]}