{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["environmental impact modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'environmental impact modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":6,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=environmental+impact+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"eninnova-000106","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000106","title":"ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-05","source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that the 2025 Reconciliation bill would significantly increase household energy costs, lead to substantial job losses, and increase greenhouse gas emissions by repealing clean energy incentives and EPA standards. Despite proposed increases in oil and gas production, the analysis suggests that higher demand for fossil fuels and the loss of low-cost renewable capacity would raise overall energy spending and decrease GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000106#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The proposed Reconciliation legislation would increase annual energy costs for American households by more than $16 billion in 2030 and more than $33 billion by 2035. On a per-household basis, this represents an average increase of $120 per year in 2030 and over $230 per year in 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000106#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The bill is projected to cause significant economic contraction, with cumulative GDP decreasing by more than $1 trillion between 2025 and 2034. It would result in the loss of more than 830,000 jobs in 2030 and nearly 720,000 jobs in 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000106#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Changes to the section 45Y production tax credit (PTC) and section 48E investment tax credit (ITC) would reduce new electricity capacity additions by 114 GW by 2030 and 302 GW by 2035. This includes significant decreases in wind (205 GW by 2035) and solar (95 GW by 2035) capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000106#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The legislation would increase greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 130 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2030 and nearly 260 Mt CO2e by 2035. This increase in pollution is estimated to cause nearly 350 additional premature deaths annually by 2030 and nearly 670 by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000106#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While the bill proposes expanding oil and gas leasing and lowering royalty rates—which would increase oil production by 6% and natural gas by 1% by 2050—the resulting price drops are more than offset by increased demand for fossil fuels due to the repeal of clean energy incentives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000106#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The legislation would terminate or accelerate the phase-out of several key tax credits, including the clean vehicle tax credit (I.R.C. §30D) in 2027, the commercial clean vehicle tax credit (I.R.C. 45W) in 2026, and the residential clean energy credit (I.R.C. §25D) in 2026.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000106#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["solar energy","wind power","battery energy storage system","electric vehicle","petroleum industry","greenhouse gas emissions","air pollution","public health","methane emissions","forest conservation"],"geography_discussed":["Gulf of Mexico","Cook Inlet","Wyoming","New Mexico","Colorado","Utah","Montana","Oklahoma","Nevada","Alaska"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","policy analysis","environmental impact modeling"]},{"id":"eninnova-000050","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/eninnova-000050","title":"BENEFITS OF THE BUILD BACK BETTER ACT’S METHANE FEE","publisher":{"name":"Energy Innovation","organization":"energy-innovation"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2021-10","source_url":"https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Benefits-of-the-Build-Back-Better-Act-Methane-Fee.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Build Back Better Act's methane fee is projected to reduce industrial greenhouse gas emissions by 172 million metric tons of CO2e annually by 2050, accounting for 65 percent of the Act's total industrial GHG reductions. The fee is expected to create approximately 70,000 jobs and add over $250 billion to the U.S. GDP by 2050. With abatement costs for over 95 percent of the potential being under $40/ton CO2e, the total cost to the oil and gas industry—including fee payments and abatement measures—is estimated at $133 billion, representing only 0.77 percent of projected industry revenues.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000050#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The methane fee is a primary driver of the Build Back Better Act's industrial emission goals, projected to avoid 172 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) annually by 2050. This reduction is equivalent to the annual emissions of over 36 million gasoline-powered passenger vehicles and represents 65 percent of the Act's total industrial GHG emissions reductions from 2023 to 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000050#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The fee is expected to provide significant economic benefits, including the creation of more than 70,000 jobs by 2050 and a cumulative increase in U.S. GDP of more than $250 billion between 2023 and 2050. By 2050, the fee's contribution to the economy will be over $10 billion per year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000050#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Methane abatement is achievable at low cost using existing technology, such as well sealing and equipment maintenance. More than 95 percent of abatement potential costs less than $40/ton CO2e, with a weighted average cost of $19/ton CO2e.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000050#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total financial burden on the oil and gas industry from 2023 to 2050—comprising $90 billion for abatement and $43 billion in fee payments—totals $133 billion. This amount represents only 0.77 percent of the industry's projected $17.2 trillion in revenues, which is significantly lower than the average 4 percent profit margin.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000050#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The methane fee is designed to complement EPA pollution limits. While standards ensure equitable reductions, the fee encourages companies to internalize pollution costs and provides revenues for program administration, technical assistance, and support for impacted communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"eninnova-000050#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["methane emissions","greenhouse gas emissions","petroleum industry","climate finance","kilogram of carbon dioxide equivalent"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic impact assessment","environmental impact modeling"]},{"id":"wwf-000600","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wwf-000600","title":"DRIVEN TO WASTE: THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF FOOD LOSS AND WASTE ON FARMS","publisher":{"name":"WWF International","organization":"wwf-international"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2021","source_url":"https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/1112/5p58sxloyr_technical_report_wwf_farm_stage_food_loss_and_waste.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that 15.3% of global agricultural production, approximately 1.2 billion tonnes, is lost at the farm stage, with an estimated economic value of $370 billion. It challenges the assumption that losses are primarily a low-income country issue, noting that higher- and middle-income countries are responsible for 58% of global harvest losses. Environmental impacts are significant, including 2.2 gigatonnes of CO2 eq. emissions, 760 km3 of freshwater withdrawals, and 4.4 million km2 of land use, with meat and animal products having a disproportionately high impact. The report identifies a complex web of direct drivers (biological, agronomic, and technological) and indirect drivers (market structure, governance, and human factors) and argues for synchronized, holistic interventions rather than isolated technical fixes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global farm stage food losses are estimated at 1.2 billion tonnes per year, which represents 15.3% of total global food production. This is split between 8.3% lost at or around harvest and 7.0% during farm stage post-harvest activities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report challenges the assumption that farm stage losses are primarily a problem for low-income countries. Higher- and middle-income countries, representing 37% of the global population, account for 58% of global harvest losses, while low-income countries account for 54% of post-harvest farm stage losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total economic value of global food losses at the farm gate is estimated at $370 billion per annum, excluding fisheries.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Farm stage food losses result in an annual carbon footprint of 2.2 gigatonnes CO2 eq., which is approximately 16% of total global emissions from agricultural production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Meat and animal products (including dairy) have a disproportionately high environmental impact; they account for 40% of CO2 eq. emissions and over 40% of acidification and eutrophication potentials, despite representing only 13% of total food loss tonnage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The land area required to produce food lost at the farm stage is estimated at 4.4 million km2, an area larger than the Indian sub-continent. Over half of this land use is associated with meat and animal products.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Freshwater withdrawals associated with global farm stage food losses are estimated at 760 km3. Cereals and pulses have the highest global water footprint, with specific hotspots in rice production in South and Southeast Asia and wheat production in North America and Asia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Food loss drivers are categorized into direct factors (biological and environmental; agronomy, animal husbandry, and fishing practices; and technology and infrastructure) and indirect factors (market structure, governance, and investment; and human factors).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that the traditional distinction between 'food loss' (unintended) and 'food waste' (conscious decision) is misleading and does not help in identifying drivers or solutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Effective mitigation of farm stage food losses requires synchronized, holistic interventions rather than isolated technical fixes, combining technological improvements with training, better market connections, and fair pricing for farmers.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wwf-000600#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","land use","agricultural production","climate change","biodiversity loss"],"geography_discussed":["South and Southeast Asia","North America","Europe","India","United Kingdom","Pakistan","South Africa","Ghana","Benin","People's Republic of China","Peru","Trinidad and Tobago","Guyana","France","Ethiopia","Malawi","United States","Canada","Oceania","Lake Victoria"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative assessment","environmental impact modeling","case study analysis"]},{"id":"clipolin-000945","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/clipolin-000945","title":"Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon","publisher":{"name":"Climate Policy Initiative","organization":"climate-policy-initiative"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2020-10","source_url":"https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report highlights a critical gap in Brazil's Feasibility Studies (EVTEA) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), which often ignore indirect environmental effects of transportation projects. Using a 'market access' approach, the authors demonstrate that infrastructure improvements can drive deforestation far from the project site by reducing freight costs and incentivizing agricultural expansion. For example, while the Ferrogrão railroad may reduce direct carbon emissions, its indirect impact is estimated to increase deforestation by 2,000 km², releasing over 60 million tCOe. The report recommends that policymakers use geoprocessing and statistical tools to identify these broader areas of influence to ensure sustainable infrastructure development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000945#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current Brazilian environmental assessment instruments, specifically Feasibility Studies (EVTEA) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), lack transparency in their methodology for delimiting areas of indirect influence, often leading to an underestimation of a project's total ecological footprint.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000945#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Transportation infrastructure improvements can trigger indirect environmental degradation far from the investment site by reducing freight costs, which encourages producers to expand agricultural production and convert forests into pastures or cropland.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000945#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Analysis of the Legal Amazon between 1985 and 2018 indicates that a 1% increase in market access leads to a 0.2% to 0.4% increase in deforestation, with changes in accessibility accounting for 34% of observed deforestation from 1990 to 2017.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000945#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EF-170 (Ferrogrão) railroad project illustrates the disparity between direct and indirect impacts: while it is estimated to reduce carbon emissions by 1,000,000 tCOe due to lower emissions from trains compared to trucks, its indirect effects are projected to increase deforestation by approximately 2,000 km², releasing over 60,000,000 tCOe.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000945#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report recommends that EVTEAs incorporate evaluations of indirect environmental risks for preliminary identification, and that EIAs adopt robust methodologies to propose mitigation and compensation measures for the entire area affected by changes in economic and environmental dynamics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"clipolin-000945#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["deforestation","carbon dioxide emissions","environmental impact assessment","land use"],"geography_discussed":["Legal Amazon","Mato Grosso","Pará"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","environmental impact modeling"]},{"id":"ucs-000889","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-000889","title":"The Nuclear Power Dilemma","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2018-11","source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/11/Nuclear-Power-Dilemma-full-report.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Union of Concerned Scientists finds that over one-third of US nuclear plants are unprofitable or scheduled to close, primarily due to low natural gas prices. Without new policies, early retirements could increase power sector carbon emissions by 4% to 6% by 2035 as plants are replaced by natural gas and coal. The report argues that national carbon pricing or a low-carbon electricity standard would preserve existing nuclear capacity, diversify the energy mix, and significantly reduce emissions with minimal impact on household electricity bills. It further recommends that any financial support for distressed plants be contingent on high safety performance ratings from the NRC and transparency in financial reporting.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"More than one-third of existing US nuclear plants, representing 22 percent of total capacity, are either unprofitable or scheduled for closure. As of 2018, 16 plants are unprofitable and five are scheduled for retirement, totaling 22.7 GW of operating capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The primary driver for early nuclear retirements is the decline in wholesale power prices caused by low natural gas prices. Other contributing factors include stagnant electricity demand, falling costs for wind and solar, and rising operating costs for aging plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Single-reactor plants face significantly higher economic risks than multiple-reactor plants; 77 percent of capacity from single-reactor plants is unprofitable or marginal, compared to 20 percent for multiple-reactor plants.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Without new policies, early retirement of at-risk nuclear plants could lead to a cumulative 4% to 6% increase in US power sector carbon emissions by 2035 (0.7 to 1.25 billion metric tons) because they would be replaced primarily by natural gas and coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing a national carbon price or a low-carbon electricity standard (LCES) would reduce cumulative power sector CO2 emissions by 19% to 28% (4 to 5.7 billion metric tons) through 2035 compared to a scenario with early retirements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Carbon-reduction policies are estimated to be affordable, with typical household monthly electricity bills increasing by only $0.74 to $1.03 (1.0% to 1.4%) by 2035. The cumulative net benefits, including public health and climate gains, range from $61 billion (LCES) to $234 billion (carbon price).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 2000 and 2018, US reactors met or exceeded NRC safety standards 80.5% of the time (Column 1 rating). The report recommends that financial support be limited to reactors maintaining this highest safety rating.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a trend of industry pressure on the NRC to weaken safety and security standards to lower costs, such as reducing mock terrorist attack scenarios from three to one and resisting rigorous post-Fukushima safety upgrades.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000889#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["nuclear power","carbon dioxide emissions","natural gas","renewable energy","wind power","solar energy","energy efficiency","carbon price","climate finance","Power system reliability"],"geography_discussed":["World","Illinois","New Jersey","New York","California","Japan","France"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["economic assessment","policy analysis","environmental impact modeling"]},{"id":"rmi-001079","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/rmi-001079","title":"Transformational Trucks: Determining the Energy Efficiency Limits of a Class-8 Tractor-Trailer","publisher":{"name":"RMI","organization":"rmi"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2008-07","source_url":"https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_T08-1_RMITransformational_Truck_Study_080709compressed.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report proposes a two-step strategy to improve the efficiency of Class-8 tractor-trailers. Step 1 focuses on technological improvements in aerodynamics, tire rolling resistance, and powertrain efficiency, which could increase fuel economy from 6.5 to 12.3 mpg. Step 2 examines the use of 'turnpike doubles'—long combination vehicles (LCVs) with two 48-foot trailers and a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 120,000 pounds—to increase freight productivity. Together, these measures could raise ton-mile efficiency by a factor of approximately 2.5, potentially saving 4 billion gallons of diesel fuel and 45 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually for the U.S. fleet.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Technological and logistical innovations, excluding hybrid-electric powertrains and auxiliary power units, could increase the ton-mile efficiency of long-haul heavy tractor-trailers by approximately 2.5 times compared to a baseline of 130 ton-miles/gal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing the proposed efficiency improvements across the current U.S. Class 8 fleet could result in annual savings of 4 billion gallons of diesel fuel and 45 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Step 1 technological improvements—including integrated aerodynamics, low-rolling-resistance tires, and powertrain optimization—can feasibly increase fuel economy from 6.5 to 12.3 mpg at 60 mph.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A transformational aerodynamic design incorporating a sealed tractor-trailer gap, full skirting, a rear boat-tail device, and a reshaped cab could achieve a coefficient of drag (Cd) of approximately 0.3.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The use of wide-base single tires instead of dual tires, combined with advanced rubber compounds, can reduce a typical Class 8 fleet's fuel consumption by 5 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reducing the tractive load through aerodynamics and tire improvements allows for a smaller engine; a 300-hp engine with turbocompounding can maintain the same performance on a 2% grade as a baseline 400-hp engine.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Step 2 proposes the use of 'turnpike doubles' (two 48-foot trailers with a 120,000-pound GVWR), which could increase freight efficiency to 335 ton-miles per gallon.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed nine-axle turnpike double configuration is more efficient regarding pavement wear than the baseline five-axle combination, carrying 3.8 times more payload per unit of damage on rigid pavements and 3.33 times more on flexible pavements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Turnpike doubles are found to be more stable than STAA doubles, with a lower rearward amplification factor (1.28 vs 2.15) and a smaller load transfer ratio (0.52).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While LCVs may have a slightly higher risk of crashing per vehicle-mile, they are predicted to reduce total fatal crashes because they significantly reduce the total number of tractor-trailer vehicle-miles traveled (VMT).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"rmi-001079#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy efficiency","carbon dioxide emissions","diesel fuel","freight transport"],"geography_discussed":["Canada","Scandinavia","California"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["technological assessment","policy analysis","environmental impact modeling"]}]}