{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["energy system modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'energy system modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=energy+system+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"ember-000481","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000481","title":"Central and Eastern Europe beyond gas imports","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2024-03-05","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/central-and-eastern-europe-beyond-gas-imports","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the energy strategy of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries, finding that planned LNG and pipeline capacity will significantly exceed projected gas demand by 2030. It warns that this creates a risk of stranded assets and security vulnerabilities due to global price volatility. The author advocates for shifting investment from gas infrastructure to wind, solar, and grid interconnectors, noting that 3SI countries could reach a 67% renewable electricity share by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000481#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Gas import capacity in Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries is projected to exceed the historical volume of Russian pipeline gas imports as early as 2025, meaning consumption would need to grow beyond replacing Russian gas to justify the infrastructure.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000481#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Based on ENTSO-E scenarios, total gas demand in 3SI countries is expected to fall by 2030, while the combined capacity of domestic production and North-South import routes (LNG and pipelines) will exceed that demand by 40%, or 24 bcm.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000481#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Three Seas Initiative has historically prioritized fossil fuels over electricity; of its 41 energy priority projects, 20 are focused on gas infrastructure expansion, while only one is dedicated to electricity interconnection.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000481#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is significant potential for renewable energy growth in the region; deploying 160 GW of solar, 60 GW of onshore wind, and 23 GW of offshore wind by 2030 could increase the renewable share of electricity generation to 67% and reduce power prices by 27%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000481#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["liquefied natural gas","renewable energy","solar energy","offshore wind power","energy security","stranded asset","greenhouse gas emissions","electrification"],"geography_discussed":["European Union","United States","Russia","Pakistan","Qatar","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","energy system modeling","geopolitical analysis"]},{"id":"ucs-000826","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-000826","title":"Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-09","source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-white-paper.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report argues that the US can achieve a 98% reduction in transportation CO2 emissions by 2050 through a combination of rapid vehicle electrification, improved energy efficiency, and the use of low-carbon liquid fuels for hard-to-decarbonize sectors. It presents a 'Core' scenario where all new light-duty vehicles are zero-emission by 2035 and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2040. The analysis emphasizes that while technological shifts are necessary, a truly equitable transition requires behavioral changes to reduce overall energy demand, such as increased use of public transit and active transportation. The report concludes that these pathways are economically viable, with net costs of less than 1% of GDP, and would yield significant public health and climate benefits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The United States can reduce transportation CO2 emissions by 98 percent relative to 2020 levels by 2050 through the phaseout of petroleum and rapid electrification.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve decarbonization, the report assumes all new light-duty vehicle sales must be zero-emissions by 2035, and all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales must be zero-emissions by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"It is economically feasible to reduce fossil-based liquid fuel use by 50 percent by 2040 and by nearly 85 percent by 2050 compared to current levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition to electric vehicles will significantly increase power grid demand, with the transportation sector accounting for nearly 25 percent of economy-wide power demand by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"By 2050, jet fuel is expected to constitute the majority of remaining liquid fuel use, accounting for approximately two-thirds of the total.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the Core scenario, over half of the remaining liquid fuels in 2050 would be produced from biofuels, with synthetic fuels accounting for 7 percent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A 'Low Energy Demand' scenario demonstrates that behavioral shifts—such as a 40% reduction in driving and doubling miles from transit and rail—can further reduce electricity generation needs by 34% and hydrogen use by 30% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Carbon capture and storage (CCS), particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), is estimated to be responsible for about 13 percent of economy-wide emissions reductions relative to the reference scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The net system costs for the Core scenario are modest, estimated at $45 billion by 2030 and $155 billion by 2050, representing less than 1 percent of GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition to zero-emission vehicles and renewable electricity could generate over $1.2 trillion in public health savings between 2020 and 2050 by avoiding premature deaths and asthma cases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000826#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["vehicle electrification","battery electric vehicle","biofuel","carbon capture and storage","bio-energy with carbon capture and storage","renewable electricity","energy efficiency","public transport","active mobility","climate justice","Net-zero emissions"],"geography_discussed":["California","Oregon","Washington"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["energy system modeling","scenario analysis","policy assessment"]},{"id":"ucs-000562","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ucs-000562","title":"CASE STUDY Designing a Neighborhood Microgrid","publisher":{"name":"Union of Concerned Scientists","organization":"union-of-concerned-scientists"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":"2022-03","source_url":"https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/designing-neighborhood-microgrid.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Union of Concerned Scientists used the HOMER Grid model to analyze microgrid configurations for Parker Village, a planned eight-acre development in Highland Park, Michigan. The analysis focused on a grid-separated (islanded) system powered by solar photovoltaic panels and battery storage to maximize community independence. Findings indicate that while a grid-separated microgrid is feasible, it requires significant solar and battery capacity and necessitates fossil fuel backup (natural gas or diesel) to meet winter peak demand. Alternatively, a grid-connected backup option reduces initial investment costs and battery requirements but maintains a dependency on the utility for approximately 2% of annual power demand. The study emphasizes that increasing building energy efficiency could reduce the necessary scale of energy resources and minimize reliance on fossil fuel backups.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000562#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A grid-separated microgrid powered by solar and energy storage is technically feasible for Parker Village, but achieving this while limiting outages requires a \"relatively large amount of solar and battery capacity for the space available in the neighborhood.\"","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000562#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To maintain reliability during winter peak periods when solar and storage are insufficient, islanded configurations for Parker Village require fossil fuel backup generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000562#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study identified a trade-off between cost and independence: a grid-connection backup is less expensive than fossil fuel generators and requires fewer batteries, but it leaves the neighborhood dependent on the utility for about 2% of its annual power demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000562#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The initial modeling for Parker Village assumed full electrification of all buildings, including the use of electric heat pumps for heating and cooling, which results in winter peak demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000562#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Six feasible system configurations were modeled, with initial investment costs ranging from $2.85 million for a grid-connection backup option to $6.30 million for a diesel-backed system with 30 Tesla Powerpacks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ucs-000562#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["microgrid","photovoltaics","energy storage","battery energy storage system","heat pump","electrification","distributed generation","energy efficiency","natural gas"],"geography_discussed":["Michigan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","energy system modeling"]},{"id":"transfor-000063","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/transfor-000063","title":"Memoria de modelación de metas a 2030, 2035 y 2050 para la NDC de Colombia","publisher":{"name":"Transforma","organization":"transforma"},"document_type":"report","language":"es","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Memoria-de-modelacion-de-metas-a-2030-2035-y-2050-para-la-NDC-de-Colombia.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document details a bottom-up modeling exercise using the Energy Scope tool to project Colombia's energy transition. It outlines a path toward net-zero emissions by 2050, characterized by a massive scale-up of solar and wind capacity, the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels, and the integration of energy storage and green hydrogen. The modeling identifies specific capacity targets for renewable energy across three time horizons and highlights the role of natural gas as a transitional fuel for transport and industry before full electrification.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000063#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"By 2030, Colombia's installed renewable generation capacity is estimated to reach approximately 21.4 GW, with hydroelectric power remaining dominant at 15.1 GW (70.56%), followed by large-scale solar at 3 GW (14.02%) and onshore wind at 2 GW (9.35%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000063#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2035 scenario projects a total renewable capacity of 29.9 GW, featuring an increase in solar (large-scale, distributed, and thermal) and the introduction of offshore wind at 2 GW (6.69%). In this period, coal is projected to exit the energy matrix completely.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000063#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the model projects a total renewable capacity of 88.2 GW. Solar energy becomes the primary source, with large-scale solar at 29.9 GW (33.9%) and distributed solar at 14.9 GW (16.89%), while offshore wind reaches 17.3 GW (19.61%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000063#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition involves a phased approach to transport decarbonization: natural gas is proposed as a substitute for intensive fossil fuels in private passenger transport for 2030 and 2035 due to cost barriers for electric vehicles, while full electrification and the use of biogas are targeted for the long term.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000063#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy storage is critical to manage the intermittency of solar and wind power. The model estimates a need for battery storage capacity equivalent to 9.8% of renewable capacity by 2030 (2.1 GW) and 11.7% by 2050 (10 GW), with the latter requiring an annual investment of 0.62% to 0.8% of GDP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000063#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The modeling identifies specific technological pathways for hard-to-abate sectors by 2050, including the use of green hydrogen as an energy vector for heavy transport and industry, and the implementation of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) for residual emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000063#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Nationally Determined Contributions","carbon neutrality","energy transition","solar energy","wind power","offshore wind power","hydroelectricity","bioenergy","biogas","green hydrogen","energy storage","battery energy storage system","energy efficiency","electrification","electric vehicle","natural gas","fossil fuel subsidy"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["energy system modeling","scenario analysis","techno-economic assessment"]}]}