{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["energy demand projection"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'energy demand projection' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=energy+demand+projection","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"catf-000869","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/catf-000869","title":"Decarbonizing Aviation: Challenges and Opportunities for Emerging Fuels","publisher":{"name":"Clean Air Task Force","organization":"clean-air-task-force"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-09","source_url":"https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/13101935/decarbonizing-aviation.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The aviation sector contributes 2% of global CO2 emissions, with projections suggesting these could triple by 2050 without policy intervention. While Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are the primary current solution, the report argues that the term is imprecise and that relying solely on biofuels would require quadrupling global production by 2030 and quintupling it by 2040, posing severe risks to land use, biodiversity, and food security. To meet projected global energy demands of 15.9 quads in 2030 and 21.5 quads in 2050, the report advocates for a shift toward scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEFs)—including hydrogen and synthetic fuels created via direct air capture (DAC)—and electric propulsion. It provides specific policy recommendations for the U.S. and EU, including RD&D investments, carbon intensity standards, and the phasing out of free emission allowances.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The aviation sector's CO2 emissions grew by 30% between 2013 and 2019, reaching 920 Megatons (Mt), and were on track to triple by 2050 before the COVID-19 pandemic.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The term 'Sustainable Aviation Fuels' (SAFs) is criticized as being imprecise and misleading because it often conflates biofuels with truly sustainable options and excludes other energy carriers like hydrogen and battery electric propulsion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Meeting projected global aviation energy demand using only biofuels would require an unrealistic scale-up of production, increasing from 3.65 quads per year to 15.9 quads by 2030 and 21.5 quads by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Massive expansion of biofuel production poses significant environmental and social risks, including land use change (LUC), biodiversity loss, and increased food insecurity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Synthetic fuels produced from CO2 captured via direct air capture (DAC) and hydrogen are a viable 'drop-in' alternative to kerosene, though they currently face high costs and energy requirements.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Electric propulsion is limited to small aircraft and short distances due to the low energy density of current battery technology, which is approximately 14 times less dense than conventional jet fuel.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Hydrogen propulsion eliminates in-flight CO2 emissions but faces economic hurdles, with short-range aircraft in 2040 potentially seeing operating costs increase by 25% per passenger compared to kerosene.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues that nature-based offsets, such as those used in ICAO's CORSIA scheme, carry substantial risks regarding permanence, leakage, and the albedo effect.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"U.S. policy is currently fragmented; the report recommends establishing a zero-carbon aviation energy mandate and a national zero-carbon fuel standard (ZCFS) to accelerate demand for SZEFs and electric propulsion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation proposal sets a blending mandate for SAFs starting at 2% in 2025 and reaching 63% by 2050, but critics suggest it overestimates the availability of sustainable waste-based feedstocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"catf-000869#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["Sustainable Aviation Fuel","biofuel","direct air capture","carbon offset","land-use change","emission intensity","European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1","Inflation Reduction Act of 2022"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","France","California"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","energy demand projection","technical assessment"]},{"id":"caad-000053","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/caad-000053","title":"GENERATING A(I) CRISIS","publisher":{"name":"Climate Action Against Disinformation","organization":"climate-action-against-disinformation"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://caad.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GENERATING-AI-CRISIS-The-impact-of-generative-AI-and-machine-learning-systems-on-corporate-accountability-and-power-system-decarbonisation.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document argues that the rapid growth of generative AI is driving a significant increase in electricity demand, which threatens climate goals by incentivising the continued use of fossil fuels and diverting clean energy resources. It highlights a lack of transparency in corporate emissions reporting, where 'market-based' accounting masks actual grid impacts, and warns that 'moonshot' technology promises like nuclear fusion may act as mitigation deterrence. Specific examples include data centre growth in Ireland and Malaysia, and the rising emissions profiles of companies like Microsoft and Google.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Projections for power demand from machine learning vary widely due to different assumptions about training and usage. The IEA projects dedicated machine learning power demand will be 10x greater in 2026 than in 2023, while a Goldman Sachs report suggests data centres could grow from 1-2% to 3-4% of global power demand, and up to 8% of US power demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The growth of data centres is actively competing with other electrification needs and may lead to increased fossil fuel reliance. In Ireland, all new clean energy in 2023 served new data centre growth, leaving none for other industries, and 20 recent requests from data centres were for direct connections to the fossil gas grid.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Large tech companies are using 'market-based' accounting to report lower emissions than their actual grid usage suggests. This method relies on renewable energy certificates (RECs) or power purchase agreements (PPAs) that may not incentivise new renewable energy or match the time and location of actual power consumption.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Major technology firms are seeing their climate targets undermined by AI growth. Microsoft's president admitted its carbon ambitions have shifted because \"the moon has moved\" due to machine learning investments, and Google's reports show a rise in power consumption and a shift toward carbon removal investments rather than absolute reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document identifies a risk of 'mitigation deterrence,' where improbable 'moonshot' technologies like nuclear fusion or carbon capture are promoted as solutions, potentially deterring investment in feasible renewable energy. An example is a plan in Salt Lake City to replace coal with next-generation nuclear plants that was shelved in favour of prolonging coal burning.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Generative AI is being used to amplify climate disinformation. In Australia, an anti-wind farm group used machine learning to create a fake scientific paper to spread via Facebook.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Data centre growth is particularly concerning in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, where grids are more reliant on fossil fuels. In Malaysia, projected electricity use by data centres could exceed the country's total renewable output from 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"caad-000053#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["data center","decarbonization","climate finance","power purchase agreement","Scope 3","carbon capture and storage","climate change disinformation","greenwashing","natural gas"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Ireland","Malaysia","Australia","Asia-Pacific","Salt Lake City"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","corporate accountability assessment","energy demand projection"]}]}