{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["employment forecasting"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'employment forecasting' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=employment+forecasting","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"fsdafri-000232","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/fsdafri-000232","title":"Opportunities Towards a Green and Inclusive Workforce","publisher":{"name":"FSD Africa","organization":"fsd-africa"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-06","source_url":"https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Unlocking-Africas-Green-Transition_Final.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Africa's green transition is projected to generate between 3.8 and 7.9 million jobs by 2030, rising to 65.9–84.5 million by 2050. The report argues that this growth will be service-led and decentralized, with indirect roles—such as installation, distribution, and maintenance—accounting for 56% of employment by 2030. Clean cooking is identified as the largest green value chain by 2030. However, the report highlights significant structural inequalities: 86% of 2030 green jobs are projected to be informal, and women remain concentrated in low-value roles despite high participation in sectors like clean cooking. The analysis of South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya reveals diverse transition architectures, ranging from South Africa's formal, utility-scale model to Nigeria's nano-enterprise-driven decentralized approach. Key recommendations include directing finance toward service-led value chains, reforming TVET systems through modular programs, and extending social protection to informal workers via mobile platforms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The green transition in Africa will be primarily service-led rather than infrastructure-led, with indirect roles in installation, distribution, and operations expected to make up 56% of green employment by 2030 and 62% by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Clean cooking is forecast to be the most significant green value chain by 2030, projected to generate between 1.4 and 2.5 million jobs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A vast majority of projected green jobs in 2030 will be informal (86%), and the most accessible value chains for women, youth, and low-income workers are those with the highest employment volumes, such as clean cooking and waste recycling.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Women's participation in the green workforce is projected to grow from 31% of lower-bound jobs in 2030 to 44% under the 2050 high employment scenario, with clean cooking and solar home systems (SHS) expected to reach gender parity by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical gap in workforce capability, as only 6.5% of African youth have completed a TVET programme, and current training often focuses on legacy technologies rather than emerging needs like IoT-enabled operations or battery management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"South Africa's green transition is characterized by high formality (70%) and is driven by regulated procurement and a capitalised just transition plan, though it faces challenges with occupational segregation and a weakening STEM pipeline.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Nigeria's green workforce is dominated by informality (87%) and nano-enterprises (73%), with growth driven by decentralized energy solutions and a high demand for specialized technical roles that currently outpace domestic training supply.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Kenya's green economy is more sectorally balanced in the near term, with significant roles in SHS, clean cooking, and distributed renewable energy, though utility-scale solar is projected to grow 30x by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Regional disparities exist, with East and Southern Africa projected to hold 58% of 2050 high-scenario green employment due to more mature digital finance, procurement, and e-mobility ecosystems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"fsdafri-000232#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["clean cooking","electromobility","recycling","Climate-smart agriculture","nature-based solutions","battery energy storage system","green job","just transition","climate finance","circular economy","measurement, reporting, and verification","Nationally Determined Contributions"],"geography_discussed":["World","Ethiopia","Rwanda","Ghana"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["employment forecasting","skills gap analysis","gender and inclusion assessment","policy evaluation"]},{"id":"gem-000139","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000139","title":"Scraping By: Global Coal Miners and the Urgency of a Just Transition","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-10","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_Coal_Mine_Employment_2023_11.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Global Energy Monitor identifies nearly 2.7 million coal miners worldwide, with the majority in Asia. The report warns that 414,200 jobs could be lost by 2035 and 990,200 by 2050 due to the industry's own 'life of mine' closure schedules, regardless of climate policies. It highlights that current climate pledges cover only 6% of the thermal coal workforce, leaving millions vulnerable. The report emphasizes the need for just transition mechanisms, such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), and suggests bridging employment through mine reclamation and renewable energy repurposing.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The global coal mining workforce consists of nearly 2.7 million workers across 70 countries, with over 80% located in Asia. China, India, and Indonesia together employ three times as many miners as the rest of the world combined.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Significant job losses are expected based on the industry's own 'life of mine' (LOM) schedules, independent of climate pledges. Approximately 414,200 jobs (15% of the workforce) may be lost by 2035, and 990,200 jobs (37% of the workforce) could disappear by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China's Shanxi Province is identified as the most vulnerable region, with 587,900 coal mining jobs, of which 241,900 are projected to be lost by 2050 due to LOM closures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The world's ten largest coal producers employ approximately 694,800 miners and could see up to 243,100 layoffs by 2050. State-owned operators like Coal India, Jinneng Group, and Shandong Energy are expected to be particularly impacted.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current national climate pledges to phase out coal power are insufficient to cover the majority of the workforce. Only 148,900 miners (6% of the global workforce) at thermal and mixed-grade mines are covered by these pledges.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2040, coal production would need to be reduced so drastically that only 252,200 miners would be required worldwide, based on current average labor productivity of 337 workers per million tonnes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mechanization is reducing the need for labor, particularly in the U.S. and Australia, where fewer than 100 employees are needed per million tonnes of coal. In contrast, Poland requires 822 workers per million tonnes due to a reliance on underground operations and strong trade unions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) provide financial support to coal-dependent nations, but the funding is far below the estimated requirements. For example, South Africa's JETP provided US$ 8.5 billion against an estimated requirement of US$ 98.7 billion, and India is expected to need US$ 900 billion over 30 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mine reclamation and the repurposing of abandoned sites for renewable energy (such as solar installations in Virginia and Anhui Province) are proposed as critical bridges to maintain employment during the transition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000139#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["just transition","energy transition","climate finance","renewable energy","Net-zero emissions","Just Energy Transition Partnership","methane emissions"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","Indonesia","Shanxi","South Africa","Poland","United States","Australia","Russia","Zimbabwe","Spain","Canada","Germany","East Kalimantan","Mpumalanga","Silesia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["employment forecasting","policy assessment","geographic vulnerability analysis"]}]}