{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["emissions trajectory modeling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'emissions trajectory modeling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=emissions+trajectory+modeling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"reclfin-000517","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/reclfin-000517","title":"ASSESSMENT OF TOTALENERGIES’ CLIMATE STRATEGY","publisher":{"name":"Reclaim Finance","organization":"reclaim-finance"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-09","source_url":"https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/20230413-briefing-climate-strategy-assessment-totalenergies.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that TotalEnergies' 2030 oil and gas production targets and carbon intensity are significantly higher than those required by the IEA's 1.5°C-aligned Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. It highlights a substantial investment gap, noting that in 2022, the company invested more than three dollars in oil and gas for every dollar invested in its Integrated Gas, Renewables and Power division, while distributing over four dollars to shareholders for every dollar invested in that same division. The analysis concludes that the company's reliance on carbon capture and offsets, combined with continued expansion into unconventional resources like Arctic and ultra-deep water, poses a material risk to its ability to meet decarbonization targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000517#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"TotalEnergies' projected oil and gas production for 2030 is significantly higher than the levels required for 1.5°C alignment. Based on currently producing fields, fields under development, and field evaluation, production will be 22% higher than the IEA's Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. If the company meets its specific targets to maintain oil production at 1,400 kboe/d and increase gas production to 1,400 kboe/d, production will be between 26% and 52% higher than the NZE level.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000517#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The company continues to expand into high-risk unconventional resources and has not committed to ending new oil and gas developments. Approximately one-third of current expansion plans involve Arctic and ultra-deep water activities. Specific projects mentioned include the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) in Tanzania and Uganda, and activities in the Barents Sea.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000517#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Financial allocations in 2022 show a strong preference for fossil fuels and shareholder returns over renewable energy. For every dollar invested in the Integrated Gas, Renewable and Power (iGRP) division, TotalEnergies invested over three dollars in oil and gas. Furthermore, for every dollar invested in the iGRP division, more than four dollars were paid to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000517#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"TotalEnergies' carbon intensity targets for 2030 are not aligned with major climate scenarios. The targeted carbon intensity is 20% higher than the IEA NZE and 7% higher than the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). Consequently, the company is projected to overshoot its share of the 2023-30 carbon budget by 20% under the NZE and 7% under the below 2°C scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000517#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The company's decarbonization strategy relies heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and offsets, which the report identifies as a material risk. TotalEnergies plans to achieve 10 Mtpa of reductions from carbon capture and 5 Mtpa from offsets by 2030, totaling 16.5% of its absolute emission reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000517#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a lack of transparency regarding Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) specifically dedicated to renewable energy. TotalEnergies aggregates renewable CAPEX with gas plants, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage, preventing stakeholders from accurately assessing the company's alignment with a 1.5°C pathway.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"reclfin-000517#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["fossil fuel industry","renewable energy","carbon capture and storage","carbon offset","greenhouse gas emissions","emission intensity","liquefied natural gas","carbon neutrality","transition finance"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Europe","India","Tanzania","Uganda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["corporate climate strategy assessment","financial alignment analysis","emissions trajectory modeling"]}]}