{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["emissions projections"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'emissions projections' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=emissions+projections","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"newclim-000283","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000283","title":"Emissions Scenarios for Major Economies 2023 Update","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-11-15","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/emissions-scenarios-for-major-economies-2023-update","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2023 update finds that while current policies for 25 major economies may result in 2030 emissions between -6% and +8% compared to 2019 levels, this falls short of the 43% reduction aligned with the Paris Agreement. While 13 countries are now on track to meet their NDC targets, 12 countries still face an implementation gap.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000283#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Current policies across the 25 analysed countries are projected to result in 2030 emissions that are between 6% lower and 8% higher than 2019 levels, which does not meet the 43% reduction required for alignment with the Paris Agreement.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000283#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Thirteen countries are currently on track or likely on track to meet their NDC targets. Those clearly on track include China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Viet Nam, while Australia and the European Union are now considered likely on track.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000283#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Twelve of the analysed countries have an implementation gap, meaning they must adopt further policies or improve the execution of existing ones to reach their NDC targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000283#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recent policy developments have caused divergent emission projections: the United States and European Union have seen reductions due to the Inflation Reduction Act and Fit for 55/REpowerEU respectively, whereas projections for the United Kingdom have increased due to insufficient implementation and Indonesia's have risen due to increased coal use.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000283#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","Nationally Determined Contributions","Paris Agreement","climate policy","coal-fired power station","Inflation Reduction Act of 2022"],"geography_discussed":["United States","European Union","United Kingdom","Indonesia","Brazil","Thailand","Vietnam","Mexico","Turkey","Egypt","People's Republic of China","Ethiopia","India","Iran","Morocco","Russia","Australia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["emissions projections","policy gap analysis"]},{"id":"climstra-000288","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climstra-000288","title":"Global Carbon Mechanisms Annex II: Emissions and demand projections to 2020","publisher":{"name":"Climate Strategies","organization":"climate-strategies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2009-03-06","source_url":"https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/gcm-technical-annex-ii-emissionsdemand-pojections-to-2020.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report projects emissions for the EU, Japan, and other Annex I countries up to 2012 and 2020. It finds that while the EU ETS is likely to have a surplus of allowances up to 2012 at a price of €20/tCO2, the EU-15 and Japan will face overall deficits relative to their Kyoto targets. Conversely, Russia, Ukraine, and new EU member states are projected to have significant emission surpluses. Looking toward 2020, the EU ETS is expected to enter a deficit unless efficiency and renewables targets are met, suggesting a rise in carbon prices post-2012.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000288#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"At a carbon price of €20/tCO2, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is projected to be below its cap up to 2012, which suggests that this price level is unsustainable and that there will be minimal overall demand for external project credits from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000288#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU-15 is projected to have an overall deficit relative to its Kyoto target, with estimated requirements for external credits ranging between 500 and 1,250 MtCO2e. Within this group, Germany, Spain, and Italy are identified as the countries requiring the largest inflows of credits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000288#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Japan is projected to have a total deficit relative to its Kyoto target in the range of 300-500 MtCO2e up to 2012.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000288#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Significant emission surpluses are projected for former Eastern Bloc states: new EU member states are expected to have a surplus between 1,900 and 2,300 MtCO2e, Russia between 3,500 and 4,000 MtCO2e, and Ukraine between 2,000 and 2,300 MtCO2e.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000288#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"If Canada were to meet its international treaty obligations, its demand for external credits is estimated to be in the range of 500-600 Mt.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000288#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Projections for 2020 indicate that the EU ETS will likely face a deficit at a price of €20/tCO2 if efficiency and renewables targets are not met, which implies that carbon prices will rise after 2012.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climstra-000288#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","Kyoto Protocol","European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1","clean development mechanism","carbon price","carbon sink","Villevocance","renewable energy","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["Japan","Russia","Ukraine","Canada","Australia","New Zealand"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["emissions projections","demand forecasting","policy compliance assessment"]}]}