{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["emissions modelling"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'emissions modelling' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":7,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=emissions+modelling","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"newclim-000086","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/newclim-000086","title":"Progress of major emitters towards climate targets 2024 update","publisher":{"name":"NewClimate Institute","organization":"newclimate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2024-10-16","source_url":"http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/progress-of-major-emitters-towards-climate-targets-2024-update","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2024 update by the NewClimate Institute finds that aggregated emissions for 25 major emitters could be 10% below 2019 levels by 2030 in a best-case scenario, an improvement over 2023 projections but still far short of the 43% reduction needed for the 1.5°C goal. While no country has strengthened its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) since 2023, half of the assessed countries are likely on track to meet their unconditional targets, suggesting an opportunity to increase ambition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000086#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Aggregated greenhouse gas emissions for the 25 assessed countries are projected to be between 10% below and 4% above 2019 levels by 2030, with emissions estimated to reach 34.2 – 39.8 GtCO2e. This represents a downward shift of 4 percentage points at both ends of the projection range compared to the 2023 report, although the best-case 10% reduction is insufficient to meet the 43% reduction required to limit global warming to 1.5°C.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000086#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Emissions projections for 2030 are approximately 5% lower than those in the 2023 report, driven by specific national policy developments: renewable energy adoption in China and India, electric vehicle support and carbon tax improvements in Canada, tighter emissions standards for road vehicles and coal-fired power plants in the United States, and deforestation policies in Colombia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000086#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"None of the 25 analysed countries have strengthened their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets since the 2023 update, yet half of these countries are likely on track to meet their unconditional NDC targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"newclim-000086#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","Nationally Determined Contributions","renewable energy","electric vehicle","carbon tax","coal-fired power station","deforestation","Paris Agreement","climate change mitigation"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","Canada","United States","Colombia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["emissions modelling","policy evaluation"]},{"id":"ember-000338","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000338","title":"The Cost of Extending a Mine","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2023-05-25","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Lake-Vermont-Research-Brief-2.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Ember's analysis suggests that the Lake Vermont mine extension may underestimate its methane emissions by 2.2 to 2.5 times, potentially releasing up to 100 million tonnes of CO2-e by 2055. The report argues that the project lacks a credible emissions reduction pathway and poses a risk to Australia's Safeguard Mechanism and national climate targets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000338#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Lake Vermont Meadowbrook Extension Project may be significantly underestimating its methane emissions. While the company's Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) estimates emissions at 13 million tonnes of CO2-e (100 year GWP), Ember's analysis suggests emissions could be 2.2 to 2.5 times higher.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000338#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Based on a methane intensity of 7 to 9 tonnes of methane per thousand tonnes of coal for underground operations, the mine's lifetime emissions could reach between 78 and 100 million tonnes of CO2-e using a 20-year Global Warming Potential (GWP), or 27 to 34 million tonnes of CO2-e using a 100-year GWP.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000338#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project lacks a credible emissions reduction plan for its 30+ year lifetime. Ember notes that while pre-drainage in the Bowen Basin could reduce open-cut emissions by over 5 million tonnes of CO2-e (20 year GWP), the mine has not made clear commitments to mitigation and only indicates that methane will be flared \"where practicable\".","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000338#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The extension poses a risk to the Australian Safeguard Mechanism and the 2030 and 2050 climate targets of both the Australian and Queensland governments. The mine operator estimates the extension will push emissions 1.4 times higher than the current baseline, but Ember suggests this is an underestimate that may force the mine to negotiate a higher baseline or rely on Australian Carbon Credit Units.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000338#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["methane emissions","climate target"],"geography_discussed":["Bowen Basin","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["emissions modelling","policy analysis"]},{"id":"cer-000367","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cer-000367","title":"Potential health impacts of bypassing SO2 controls at Kusile","publisher":{"name":"Centre for Environmental Rights","organization":"centre-for-environmental-rights"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2023-04","source_url":"https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Annexure-4-CREA-Report.pdf?x21779","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document evaluates the consequences of bypassing Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) systems at the Kusile power station. It projects a six-fold increase in SO2 emissions and a 40% increase in mercury emissions, leading to an estimated 670 excess deaths and R16.8 billion in societal costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000367#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Bypassing the Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) systems would lead to a projected 6-fold increase in SO2 emissions and approximately a 40% increase in mercury emissions, as FGDs normally capture toxic mercury as a side benefit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000367#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The total excess emissions resulting from the requested exemption, compared to normal operation at the same utilisation, are projected to be 280,000 tonnes of SO2 and 7,200 kg of mercury. The excess SO2 emissions are equivalent to nearly 20 years of normal plant operations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000367#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The proposed variation of the Atmospheric Emission License (AEL) is projected to cause 670 excess deaths from air pollution (range: 430–950) compared to operating in accordance with the AEL. Total air pollution-related deaths in the bypass scenario are estimated at 930.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000367#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Beyond mortality, the FGD bypass is projected to cause significant non-fatal health impacts, including 3,000 asthma emergency room visits, 1,400 preterm births, 720,000 days of work absence, and 900 years lived with disability due to stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000367#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The societal costs associated with these projected health impacts are estimated at R16.8 billion, with a confidence interval between R10.3 billion and R24.4 billion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cer-000367#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["environmental impact of mercury","air pollution","coal-fired power station","public health","particulates"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["health impact assessment","emissions modelling","economic cost analysis"]},{"id":"ember-000397","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000397","title":"Whitehaven coal mine approval jeopardises UK’s international commitments","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2023-03-10","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Report-Whitehaven-coal-mine-approval-jeopardises-UKs-international-commitments.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Ember's analysis finds that the Whitehaven coal mine in Cumbria is likely to emit 15 times more methane over its lifetime than estimated by the developer, West Cumbria Mining Limited (WCML). The report argues that WCML understated methane content by using core samples instead of official National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) factors and overstated mitigation potential by claiming a 95% destruction rate, whereas the IEA suggests 69% is realistic for such mines. These discrepancies could lead to the mine producing 12 kilotonnes of methane in 2030, significantly impacting the UK's goals under the Global Methane Pledge.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000397#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Whitehaven coal mine's forecasted methane emissions are significantly understated because the developer used internal estimates instead of the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) standard emission factors, leading to a 3.5x understatement of unmitigated lifetime emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000397#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The developer, West Cumbria Mining Limited (WCML), claims it will destroy over 95% of produced methane, but the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that a 69% mitigation rate is more realistic for an underground coking coal mine.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000397#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Combining the understated emission factors and the overstated mitigation potential, the total lifetime methane impact of the mine is estimated to be 15 times greater than the developer's estimates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000397#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The mine's projected impact on 2030 UK methane emissions from oil, gas, and coal production is estimated at 12 kilotonnes based on NAEI and IEA data, compared to the developer's estimate of 0.3 kilotonnes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000397#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report highlights a potential misunderstanding by the Inspector regarding mitigation technology, specifically confusing methane drainage (which WCML estimates at 12%) with Ventilation Air Methane (VAM) destruction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000397#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The approval of the Whitehaven mine is argued to be incompatible with the UK's commitment to the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce global methane emissions by 30% by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000397#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["methane emissions","greenhouse gas emissions","climate policy"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","emissions modelling","technical critique"]},{"id":"cliinstca-000409","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cliinstca-000409","title":"A framework for Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plans","publisher":{"name":"Canadian Climate Institute","organization":"canadian-climate-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-03","source_url":"https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ERP-Report-ENG-Final-Mar-1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Canadian Climate Institute outlines a framework for Canada's Emissions Reduction Plans based on the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. The framework consists of three core elements: establishing emissions pathways consistent with net zero, implementing policies that credibly reduce emissions, and creating responsive governance processes for course correction. The report provides illustrative sectoral pathways for 2026 and 2030, noting that the oil and gas sector exhibits the greatest variability and risk, while the electricity sector is well-positioned to meet targets. It emphasizes that reaching net zero will require sustained policy effort and a shift from historical emissions growth to strong annual declines in sectors such as buildings and transportation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000409#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"A credible and adaptive Emissions Reduction Plan must be based on three elements: an emissions pathway consistent with net zero, policies that credibly reduce emissions to the milestone, and governance processes that are responsive and capable of course correction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000409#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act mandates the publication of Emissions Reduction Plans for milestone years (2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045), including a 2026 interim objective, and requires progress and assessment reports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000409#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The oil and gas sector shows the highest variability in emissions projections due to drivers like global oil prices, which can affect the available emissions envelope for other sectors, including large emitters.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000409#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The electricity generation sector's emissions are projected to remain well below the equal share target in 2030, driven by the phase-out of coal power and increased renewable capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000409#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sectors including buildings, transportation, and oil and gas must undergo a dramatic shift from recent historical emissions growth to strong annual declines to meet the 2030 target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000409#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2026 objective, based on the median pathway of sector emissions, is estimated at 555 Mt, representing a 3.8 per cent annual reduction from 2019 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cliinstca-000409#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon neutrality","greenhouse gas emissions","climate governance","petroleum industry","electricity generation","building","transportation","agriculture","waste management","electric vehicle","renewable energy","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy framework","emissions modelling","governance assessment"]},{"id":"ember-000341","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000341","title":"LIFTING EUROPE’S DARK CLOUD","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016-10","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Lifting-europes-dark-cloud-2016.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report 'Lifting Europe’s Dark Cloud' examines the health consequences of coal power emissions in Europe, highlighting that 22,900 premature deaths were caused by these plants in 2013. It argues that current EU legislation, specifically the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED), is undermined by widespread 'derogations' that allow over half of European coal plants to exceed safety limits. The authors model three scenarios, demonstrating that adopting the most stringent 'Best Available Techniques' (BAT) could reduce annual premature deaths from 8,900 (under proposed BREF limits) to 2,600, while slashing annual health costs from 24.3 billion to 7.1 billion euros. The document calls for the removal of legal loopholes, the immediate adoption of revised LCP BREF standards, and a total phase-out of coal in favor of renewable energy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Coal-fired power plants in Europe were responsible for approximately 22,900 premature deaths in 2013, along with 11,800 new cases of chronic bronchitis in adults and 6.6 million lost working days.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"More than 50% of European coal power plants use 'derogations' (legal exemptions) to exceed the minimum binding limits of the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED). These plants accounted for 60% of all coal-related premature deaths in 2013.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Transitional National Plan (TNP) is identified as the most harmful derogation, delaying IED compliance until July 2020 and allowing plants to use a tradable 'emissions bubble' system. 99 out of 257 coal plants use the TNP, contributing to 9,170 premature deaths in 2013.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing the proposed BREF (Best Available Techniques Reference Document) limits would reduce annual premature deaths from 11,400 (under 2016 IED limits) to 8,900, and lower the annual health bill from 63.2 billion to 24.3 billion euros.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adopting the strictest 'Best Available Techniques' (BAT) scenario—the lower end of the emission range—could further reduce annual premature deaths to 2,600 and annual health costs to 7.1 billion euros.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Delays in adopting the revised LCP BREF, which should have occurred in August 2014, have resulted in 5,600 unnecessary deaths and a health bill exceeding 15.6 billion euros.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Coal power plants contribute 18% of all greenhouse gases in Europe, meaning that while emission limits improve health, a complete phase-out of coal is necessary to address climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the UK, the RWE Aberthaw plant was granted a NOx emissions ceiling of 27,843 tonnes, which was six times the IED limit of 200mg/Nm³.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000341#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["coal-fired power station","air pollution","greenhouse gas emissions","climate change","renewable energy","public health","particulates","environmental impact of mercury","energy efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["United Kingdom","Poland","Germany","Slovakia","Romania","Bulgaria","Spain","United States","Japan","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["health impact assessment","policy analysis","emissions modelling"]},{"id":"sei-002634","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002634","title":"PRACTICAL ACTION TO BUILD COMMUNITY RESILIENCE","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2014-03","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-report-york-jrf-building-community-sustainability-full.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report details the 'Good Life' initiative in New Earswick, York, which aimed to increase community resilience and reduce carbon emissions in a low-income area. Initial efforts focusing strictly on carbon footprints failed to engage residents, leading the project to pivot toward 'hooks' like nature and green spaces. This adaptive approach, including a partnership with a local secondary school for the 'Jo-Rio Mini Earth Summit', successfully increased participation and strengthened social networks. While the project could not quantitatively prove a reduction in household emissions, it demonstrated that improving social capital and leveraging trusted community voices are critical for fostering long-term pro-environmental behaviour and resilience in disadvantaged areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Initial attempts to engage the New Earswick community by focusing specifically on household carbon emissions and sustainability initiatives were unsuccessful and saw declining participation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project's success depended on identifying locally relevant 'hooks', specifically nature and green spaces, to attract a diverse cross-section of residents and build community links.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Engagement with the local secondary school, The Joseph Rowntree School, through the 'Jo-Rio Mini Earth Summit' significantly increased participation and empowered students by connecting local action to global sustainability debates.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Social Network Mapping indicated that the initiative successfully increased the number and strength of social connections, particularly for residents who were previously isolated.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The project failed to provide measurable evidence of a reduction in household carbon emissions due to a lack of completed 'before and after' surveys, although some participants made individual behaviour-change pledges.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Modelling of carbon emissions for New Earswick housing suggests that while planned infrastructure improvements by the Joseph Rowntree Housing Trust (JRHT) could reduce direct emissions by 19% by 2020, additional behaviour change and smart meters are needed to achieve a total reduction of 18%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The initiative led to the formation of 'New Earswick Sharing Together' (NEST), a community group focused on local food growing and harvesting, which serves as a project legacy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For policy-makers, the report argues that the 'Localism' agenda may be difficult to implement in less affluent areas without sustained, flexible support to build the necessary social capital and leadership skills first.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002634#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["community resilience","carbon dioxide emissions","energy efficiency","sustainable transport"],"geography_discussed":["York","United Kingdom"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["action research","social network analysis","impact assessment","emissions modelling"]}]}