{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["emissions forecasting"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'emissions forecasting' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":5,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=emissions+forecasting","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"zca-000103","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/zca-000103","title":"Overview of the global petrochemical industry","publisher":{"name":"Zero Carbon Analytics","organization":"zero-carbon-analytics"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2024-05-13","source_url":"https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/overview-of-the-global-petrochemical-industry/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The petrochemical industry is a growing driver of global oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions, with nitrogen fertilisers and plastics as primary contributors. Rapid capacity expansion, particularly in China, is projected to increase emissions beyond 1.5°C warming limits. While technical solutions and recycling are proposed, the low cost of virgin plastics and the limitations of 'downcycling' hinder progress, suggesting that policy should prioritise reuse and the reduction of single-use materials over simple substitution or recycling.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000103#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Nitrogen fertilisers, primarily produced from gas, contribute approximately 30% of the petrochemical industry's emissions. Their agricultural application releases nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas with a lifetime exceeding 100 years and a potency 300 times that of carbon dioxide.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000103#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Plastics constitute 63% of global petrochemical output by weight (excluding fertilisers) as of 2018, with packaging (36%), construction (16%), and textiles (15%) being the largest sectors. Demand is forecast to grow between two and 3.5 times recent levels by 2050, driven largely by China and developing Asia.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000103#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The petrochemical sector is significantly increasing its share of the global oil market, projected to reach nearly 20% by 2050. In the IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario, petrochemicals and other non-combustion uses (such as bitumen and asphalt) would account for 70% of oil demand by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000103#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China is expanding its petrochemical capacity at an unprecedented rate. Between 2019 and 2024, China's additions to ethylene and propylene production capacity are expected to equal the total existing capacity of Europe, Japan, and Korea combined.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000103#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Recycling is an insufficient solution for the climate impact of plastics because only 9% are recycled globally and virgin plastics are often cheaper than recycled versions. For example, in the US between 2021 and 2023, virgin high-density polyethylene (HDPE) cost USD 943 per tonne, while recycled HDPE cost USD 1,631.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000103#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Many petrochemical products, including cosmetics, pesticides, and plastics, contain endocrine-disrupting chemicals linked to infertility, cancer, and neurodevelopmental harm.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"zca-000103#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petrochemical product","greenhouse gas emissions","plastic","fossil fuel demand","single-use plastic"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","United States","Europe","Japan","South Korea","Middle East","New Jersey","France","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["industry assessment","emissions forecasting","policy evaluation"]},{"id":"ember-000410","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/ember-000410","title":"Review of the European Power Sector in 2015","publisher":{"name":"Ember","organization":"ember"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2016-01-19","source_url":"https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Sandbag_2015_Review_of_Euro_Power_Sector.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The European power sector saw a record increase in renewables generation in 2015, yet CO2 emissions fell by only an estimated 0.5% due to offsetting increases in coal generation in several countries and a rebound in electricity demand. While the UK experienced a collapse in coal generation, this was countered by growth in the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland. The report forecasts a further 21% drop in EU ETS emissions from 2014 to 2020, suggesting the EU is on track to surpass its 20% economy-wide CO2 cut target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000410#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"European renewable generation experienced a record increase of 87TWh in 2015, which represents 2.5% of European electricity demand. This growth was heavily concentrated in three countries: Germany, the UK, and Italy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000410#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite the growth in renewables, power sector CO2 emissions are estimated to have fallen by only 0.5% (5Mt) in 2015, following a much larger 7.5% decrease in 2014.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000410#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The decline in UK coal generation was offset by increases in coal generation in the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland. In the Netherlands, coal generation is estimated to have increased by 11TWh due to 3200MW of new coal plants coming online.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000410#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"European electricity demand rose by approximately 1.1% in 2015, rebounding from a fall of at least 2.3% in 2014. This was largely driven by a return to normal temperatures after a record mild 2014, though an intense heatwave in July increased demand in Italy and Spain.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000410#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report maintains a forecast that EU ETS stationary emissions will fall by 21% from 2014 to 2020, which would align with a 30% economy-wide CO2 reduction, exceeding the EU's 20% target.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000410#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lignite generation has remained stagnant since 2010, and the majority of the decline in conventional generation since 2010 has been driven by gas rather than hard coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"ember-000410#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","coal power","European Union Emission Trading Scheme 1","electric energy consumption","carbon price","energy efficiency","wide area synchronous grid"],"geography_discussed":["Germany","United Kingdom","Italy","Netherlands","Spain","Portugal","Poland","France","Austria","Belgium","Switzerland","Czech Republic","Sweden"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["sectoral analysis","emissions forecasting"]},{"id":"sei-001783","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001783","title":"Impact of phasing out federal coal and oil leases on CO2 emissions and 2°C goals","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2016","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the climate impact of phasing out federal fossil fuel leases in the U.S. It finds that while current policies project an 11% increase in production by 2040, a 2°C pathway requires a 40–60% reduction. Ceasing new federal leases could reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes per year by 2030, primarily through reduced coal and offshore oil production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001783#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"U.S. fossil fuel production grew by 20% in energy terms between 2010 and 2015, with approximately 25% of total extraction and 40% of all coal coming from federal lands and waters leased by the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001783#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To align with a cost-efficient 2°C warming pathway, the U.S. would need to reduce aggregate fossil fuel production by 40–60% from current levels by 2040, whereas current policies (including the Clean Power Plan) project an 11% increase by that date.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001783#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Ending new federal leases and renewals for non-producing resources would likely cause a steady decline in U.S. coal production, while oil and gas production would decline more slowly due to longer project lead times, particularly for offshore resources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001783#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Phasing out federal leases could reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes (Mt) per year by 2030. This net reduction consists of 71 Mt from reduced coal use and 31 Mt from reduced oil use, after accounting for substitution effects.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001783#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The impact of a lease phase-out varies based on other policies; if the Clean Power Plan were not implemented, the emissions reduction from phasing out federal leases would increase to 270 Mt CO2 in 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001783#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["petroleum industry","carbon dioxide emissions","Paris Agreement","Clean Power Plan","energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["Wyoming","Colorado","Gulf of Mexico"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modeling","emissions forecasting"]},{"id":"wri-001867","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-001867","title":"Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan Toward a Low-Carbon Future","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2015-06","source_url":"https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/WRI15_WorkingPaper_post-2020_0.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The United States can meet its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 26–28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 through a combination of existing federal laws and state actions. The report proposes a 10-point action plan focusing on the power sector, energy efficiency, HFCs, and methane reduction. For deeper reductions beyond 2025, the authors argue that new legislation, such as a carbon price, could reduce emissions by 40–42 percent by 2030 and 50–53 percent by 2040 without sacrificing robust economic growth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The United States can meet or exceed its target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26–28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 using existing federal laws and state action.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The power sector is the most significant opportunity for near-term abatement, potentially accounting for up to 49 percent of total reductions in 2025 and 44 percent in 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions represents the second largest abatement opportunity, contributing at least 16 percent of reductions in 2025 and 18 percent in 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Industrial energy efficiency and fuel switching constitute the third largest near-term abatement opportunity, accounting for approximately 11 percent of reductions in 2025 and 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Methane emissions from natural gas systems can be reduced by 67 percent below Reference Case projections using existing technologies with a payback period of three years or less.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a 10-point action plan to meet 2025 targets, including strengthening the Clean Power Plan, scaling up residential and commercial energy efficiency, and establishing standards for new aircraft.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"New federal legislation, such as a carbon tax or cap-and-trade program, could reduce U.S. GHG emissions by 40–42 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and 50–53 percent by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Long-term low-carbon transitions can be pursued in parallel with robust economic growth, with GDP in 2030 projected to be only 0.7 percent lower than Reference Case levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy efficiency policies in low-carbon pathways are projected to lower average monthly household energy bills by 5–10 percent in 2030 and 9–13 percent in 2040 compared to the Reference Case.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition to a low-carbon economy is expected to have little long-term impact on net employment, though it will cause shifts between sectors, such as growth in renewable energy and decline in coal production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-001867#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","energy efficiency","renewable energy","carbon price","carbon tax","emission trading","Clean Power Plan","hydrofluorocarbon","methane emissions","electric vehicle","carbon sequestration","sustainable energy"],"geography_discussed":["World","California"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","economic modeling","emissions forecasting"]},{"id":"iisd-003289","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-003289","title":"NAMA Concepts for Trinidad and Tobago","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2012-12","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/nama_concepts_trinidad.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document presents a screening exercise that identified 26 NAMA concepts for Trinidad and Tobago across six UNFCCC sectors. It analyzes the country's high per-capita emissions driven by the petrochemical industry and proposes specific mitigation measures in energy, industry, transport, agriculture, forestry, and waste to support a transition to a low-carbon economy.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003289#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Trinidad and Tobago has one of the highest per-capita greenhouse gas emissions in the world, ranking seventh globally, primarily due to its heavy reliance on the petroleum industry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003289#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The country's economy is highly carbon-intensive, with petrochemicals accounting for 56% and power generation for 28% of emissions as of 2007.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003289#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Using a Reference Case Projection Tool, the report forecasts that emissions in Trinidad and Tobago will likely almost double by 2030, with the largest increases expected in industry and electrical generation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003289#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The screening process identified 26 NAMA concepts across six sectors: energy (11), industry (5), transport (4), agriculture (2), forestry (2), and waste (2).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003289#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"High-mitigation potential NAMA concepts identified include carbon capture and storage, increasing the efficiency of natural gas generation, wind renewables, coastal reforestation, enhanced process efficiency in industry, leak detection and repair programs, cogeneration, and alternative energy car imports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003289#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change projections for Trinidad and Tobago indicate an increase in temperature, a decrease in rainfall, and a projected sea-level rise between 0.13 and 0.56 metres by 2100 relative to 1980–1999 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-003289#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","petrochemical product","renewable energy","energy efficiency","carbon capture and storage","reforestation","biofuel","waste-to-energy","sea level rise","climate resilience","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Caribbean","Latin America"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief","screening exercise","emissions forecasting"]}]}