{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["electoral assessment"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'electoral assessment' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":4,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=electoral+assessment","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-001763","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001763","title":"Free and fair? Angola’s uneven election playing field","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2022-08","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-52.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report examines the 2022 Angolan elections, highlighting a systemic bias toward the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). It identifies critical failures in electoral management, including the government's control of the voters' roll, the lack of independence in the National Electoral Commission and Constitutional Court, and the restriction of domestic and international observers. The document also notes a deteriorating socioeconomic environment marked by extreme poverty and inflation, which increases the risk of post-election instability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The electoral landscape in Angola is heavily skewed in favour of the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), which has held power since 1975. This advantage is maintained through the misuse of state resources and the instrumentalisation of state-owned media, which primarily publishes information favourable to the government.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The process for compiling the voters' roll is managed by the Ministry of Territorial Administration, a government agency, rather than an independent electoral body. This contradicts recommendations from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and has led to suspicions of fraud, including the potential presence of 'ghost voters' due to a lack of depuration of deceased citizens.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The National Electoral Commission (NEC) and the Constitutional Court are viewed as partisan. The NEC is led by a chair proposed by a body the opposition considers biased, and the Constitutional Court's president is an active MPLA militant. The court has a history of rejecting opposition appeals and obstructing political parties, such as annulling the election of Adalberto Costa Junior.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Significant changes to the vote tabulation process have undermined transparency. The revocation of municipal and provincial tabulation in 2021 means results are now centralised in Luanda, removing local checks and balances and making it harder for opposition delegates to verify counts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The appointment of the Spanish company Indra Sistemas for processing and transmitting electoral results is contested by civil society and opposition parties, who allege the company may falsify results and cite a non-transparent procurement process.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Angolan government has restricted election observation by limiting the number of national observers to 2,000 for approximately 26,000 polling stations. This restriction prevents NGOs from performing effective parallel vote tabulation and limits the role of international monitors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Angola's socioeconomic conditions have deteriorated significantly since 2008, with extreme poverty increasing from 35% to 44% between 2019 and 2022. This is driven by a drop in crude oil export earnings, high inflation, and a severe drought in the south affecting approximately 2 million people.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Despite a hostile environment and government harassment of journalists and activists, civic space is growing through the use of digital platforms. New rights organisations and coalitions, such as Movimento Cívico Mudei and OBEA, are emerging to promote democracy and monitor elections.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001763#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Luanda"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["political analysis","electoral assessment","socioeconomic analysis"]},{"id":"greeneur-000204","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/greeneur-000204","title":"Belgium and its Green Parties at the Crossroads","publisher":{"name":"Green European Journal","organization":"green-european-journal"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2019-07-02","source_url":"https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/belgium-and-its-green-parties-at-the-crossroads/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"Following the May 26 2019 elections, Belgium's Green parties saw divergent results: Ecolo grew in Wallonia and Brussels, while Groen's performance in Flanders was viewed as disappointing. The author attributes some of this to 'climate reassurers'—right-wing parties like NVA and Vlaams Belang that downplay the urgency of climate action to maintain neoliberal economic models. The document explores two future strategies for the Greens: focusing on local governance in cities to demonstrate success or joining federal and regional governments despite the risk of compromising their radical climate agenda.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000204#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 2019 election results for Belgium's Green parties varied by region: Ecolo saw a 6 per cent increase in Wallonia, reaching 14.9 per cent in the Chamber, while Groen received 9.8 per cent of Flemish votes for the federal Chamber, which was below its polling of 15 per cent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000204#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Brussels, the combined Ecolo-Groen force became the largest party in the federal elections with 21.6 per cent of the vote, making them likely participants in the next Brussels Regional Government.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000204#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Groen's disappointing results in Flanders are attributed to a lack of clarity regarding proposals to reform the company car system and tax wealth, as well as NVA's framing of the party as power-hungry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000204#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Right-wing parties in Flanders, specifically NVA and Vlaams Belang, utilized 'climate reassurance' or 'ecorealism' to attract voters. This strategy involves implicitly denying scientific evidence and arguing that Belgium's small contribution to global emissions makes strict national measures ineffective.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000204#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author identifies two potential strategic paths for the Belgian Greens: remaining in opposition at the federal and regional levels to focus on successful local governance in cities, or joining governments to influence climate policy at the risk of maintaining a productivist system.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greeneur-000204#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate policy","climate crisis","energy transition","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Flemish Region","Walloon Region","Brussels","Ghent","Leuven"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["political analysis","electoral assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-001781","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001781","title":"Burundi: Overview of the 2010 elections and observations on the way forward","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2010-10-14","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2010_14OctBurundi.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2010 elections in Burundi were marked by a dominant victory for the ruling CNDD-FDD and a significant boycott by opposition parties following the communal polls. While international observers generally viewed the process as meeting democratic norms, the opposition cited massive fraud and a biased playing field. This resulted in a government and parliament heavily dominated by the CNDD-FDD, raising concerns about the long-term inclusivity of Burundi's democratic consolidation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 2010 elections represented a significant shift from the 2005 polls as they were organized by Burundians themselves rather than the United Nations Mission in Burundi (ONUB), and the president was elected through direct universal suffrage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The communal elections on 24 May 2010 saw a high voter turnout of 90.67 per cent, with the ruling CNDD-FDD winning 64.03 per cent of the votes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Following the communal polls, a coalition of opposition parties known as the Alliance des Démocrates pour le Changement au Burundi (ADC) rejected the results, alleging 'massive fraud and irregularities'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The opposition boycott led to the presidential election on 28 June effectively becoming a referendum, with incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza re-elected with 91.62 per cent of the vote and a turnout of 76.98 per cent.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In the legislative elections on 23 July, the CNDD-FDD secured a dominant majority in the National Assembly with 81 seats, while UPRONA received 17 and FRODEBU-Nyakuri received five.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The new administration's cabinet composition adhered to constitutional ethnic and gender quotas, with 43 per cent of the 21 ministerial posts filled by women.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The CNDD-FDD's overwhelming majority in parliament limits the need for a consultative approach to governing and places the party only four seats short of the 85 required to make constitutional amendments independently.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The opposition's decision to boycott is attributed to a perception of a biased playing field, unrealistic performance expectations, weak internal party structures, and a lack of financial means.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"International observers, including the EU-EOM, generally found the elections to be in accordance with international norms, though they noted concerns regarding the use of state resources and the non-publication of minutes (procès-verbaux).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies a missed opportunity for the government and international community to constructively engage the ADC, which may have prevented the total loss of faith in the process.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001781#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Bujumbura"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["political analysis","electoral assessment"]},{"id":"issafri-001361","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-001361","title":"Up-coming local elections in Mozambique: Context, meaning and relevance","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2003-11-05","source_url":"https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/MOZNOV03.PDF","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the 2003 local elections in Mozambique within a history of civil strife and a transition from a one-party state to a bipolar political system dominated by Frelimo and Renamo. It highlights the limitations of these elections, as the majority rural population is excluded from local government voting. The author notes a cycle of 'democratisation, repatrimonialisation and destabilisation,' with current tensions marked by aggressive party politics and corruption. The document also discusses the impact of HIV/AIDS on regional demographics, suggesting that areas with lower infection rates, such as the north, may gain future political influence.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001361#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The 2003 local elections have limited predictive value for the 2004 general elections because the rural population, which constitutes the majority of Mozambicans, is excluded from electing local government structures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001361#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mozambique's political trajectory has been characterized by three phases: democratisation (1990-1994), repatrimonialisation (1994-1998), and a current phase of destabilisation marked by inter- and intra-party struggles.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001361#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The political landscape is a de facto bipolar system dominated by Frelimo and Renamo, with smaller parties failing to secure significant representation due to a 5% popular vote threshold for legislative entry.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001361#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 1998 local elections were compromised by a boycott from Renamo and 15 other parties, resulting in a low voter turnout of 14.48% and absolute control of municipal authorities by Frelimo.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001361#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"HIV/AIDS prevalence varies by region, with the highest rates (around 20%) in central provinces like Manica, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia, and lower rates (around 13%) in the north, which may shift future demographic and electoral patterns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001361#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2003 election process faced irregularities in candidate registration, with only 33 of 94 mayoral candidates (all from Frelimo) submitting nominations free of irregularities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-001361#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Maputo Province","Beira","Chimoio"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["political analysis","electoral assessment"]}]}